🌍 Iran pulls the trigger, Israel vows revenge

IN TODAY’S EDITION

Hi Intriguer. I first heard about the ‘Iron Dome’ on the news as a teenager. Back then, I’d naively assumed the dome was an actual apparatus which appeared during times of conflict, not dissimilar to the ‘Protega Maxima’ charm around Hogwarts in Harry Potter, and I gave it no further thought.

I was then thoroughly embarrassed to be corrected of this erroneous assumption during my pre-posting security briefing, when I learned that the Iron Dome was actually a sophisticated air defence system with a 90% success rate in intercepting incoming missiles.

But as Israel’s regional conflicts have intensified, the Iron Dome has started to show (figurative) cracks. For one, adversaries have worked out how to fire weapons that fly below the system’s interception radars (like anti-tank missiles or UAVs). And two, there may soon be too many missiles fired at the Iron Dome for its system to intercept and take out.

We’ll dive into the latest in the region’s evolving conflict in our top story today.

THE HEADLINES

US VP debate stays policy-heavy
Tim Waltz and JD Vance took to the debate stage last night (Tuesday) for what ended up a relatively civil and policy-heavy conversation, as the two sparred on everything from the economy to the 2020 election results. For more analysis, don’t miss our next edition of Election Intrigue: our weekly briefing on what the US election means for the world.

Oil prices jump on latest Middle East escalation.
The price of Brent crude has jumped 2.6% since Iran’s latest attack on Israel and Netanyahu’s subsequent pledge to retaliate (more on that below). Iran is a member of OPEC and supplies around 4% of global output (~90% of Iran’s oil exports go to China).

French parliament heckles new PM’s first address.
Michel Barnier gave his inaugural speech in parliament yesterday amid heckles and boos. He pledged to increase taxes, bring France’s debt under control, and continue support for Ukraine. Barnier’s address was a key early test for his government, which lacks a clear majority in the legislature.

Defector arrested after trying to defect back to North Korea in stolen bus.
South Korean authorities have arrested a North Korean defector after he rammed a border barricade with a stolen bus while trying to head back north. He had reportedly been trying to return to North Korea after living for more than a decade in the South.

TOP STORY

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

So what next? Allow us to paint you a picture with three words.

First, escalation: Iran’s new foreign minister (Abbas Araghchi) has now declared “our action is concluded”. But Iran tried that same ‘no backsies’ line in April, and here we are. Meanwhile, Israel earlier described its strategy as “de-escalation through escalation”. Ie, it was betting that by ramping up, its enemies might back down. And yet here we are.

Second, isolation: Iran’s UN mission has tweeted that “regional states and the Zionists’ supporters are advised to part ways with the regime” [Israel], in an attempt to further isolate Israel abroad. But Netanyahu just went straight for the jugular, addressing the Iranian people directly in an attempt to further isolate the regime at home.

And third, momentum: Netanyahu used this word over the weekend, declaring that “Israel has momentum; we are winning.” Meanwhile, his approval numbers are rebounding, his majority in the Knesset is growing (with some hawkish additions), and there are now calls (for example) to “change the face of the Middle East”.

The above three words combined, days out from the October 7 anniversary, a month out from the US election, and with a staggering amount of US firepower in the region?

It’d be a bold team of ex-diplomats to forecast Netanyahu hitting pause at this point. His officials are already hinting Iran’s oil infrastructure and other “strategic sites” will be next.

Also worth noting:

• The sole casualty in this latest round appears to have been a Palestinian man hit by Iranian shrapnel in the West Bank. Around the same time, an apparent terrorist attack left at least seven people dead in the Jaffa area of Tel Aviv.

• The Jewish high holiday of Rosh Hashanah begins today (Wednesday) and many Israelis would ordinarily unplug until Yom Kippur ends on October 12.

• There are reports the IRGC didn’t give a heads-up to Iran’s new president until moments before it pulled the trigger. This could just reflect the fact that the IRGC answers directly to Iran’s supreme leader rather than the president; it could also reflect the extent of internal divisions now playing out in Tehran.

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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇨🇳 China: The Chinese Communist Party has celebrated the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China in a notably low-key way, likely seeking to avoid flashy displays while China’s people endure financial strain. Instead, President Xi Jinping gave a speech warning his people that “the road ahead will not be smooth”.

2. 🇮🇪 Ireland: The local data protection watchdog has fined Meta $100M after the tech giant admitted storing user passwords on non-encrypted systems. Last year, the EU fined Meta over $1B for irregularities in its EU-US data transfers.

3. 🇮🇩 Indonesia: Swiss authorities have ramped up their pressure on the family of president-elect Prabowo Subianto, arguing his younger brother and confidant, tycoon Hashim Djojohadikusumo, owes Switzerland hundreds of millions in back taxes. It’s a bit awkward for Prabowo, whose inauguration is scheduled for October 20.

4. 🇲🇽 Mexico: Outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador has enjoyed a very ‘on brand’ final day in office: he turned his 1,438th press briefing into a full variety show featuring breakfast, live music, and even raffling off his own watch. The left-leaning leader now retires with high approval ratings, but many citizens still worry at the populist constitutional changes he’s left behind.

5. 🇨🇩 DR Congo: The M23 rebel group is apparently making $300K a month from its control of the Rubaya area in eastern DRC, which provides 15% of the world’s tantalum (a rare metal used for certain electronics). The head of the UN mission in Congo has urged the UN Security Council to impose sanctions “on those benefiting from this criminal trade”.

EXTRA INTRIGUE

💼 The Intrigue job board is back! 

• Sales & distribution manager @ BBC in Singapore

• Cybersecurity architect @ BNP Paribas in Milan

• Insights manager @ RedBull in Cape Town

• Senior nutrition specialist @ International Rescue Committee in London

RECORD OF THE DAY

New Zealand has retaken the world record for the biggest haka, after more than 6,000 Kiwis performed the traditional Māori custom at a stadium in Auckland over the weekend. We say ‘retaken’ because France actually yoinked the title back in 2014, much to the displeasure of the Kiwis who cherish the haka as part of their national heritage.

DAILY POLL

Yesterday’s poll: What should Ishiba focus on first?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 📈 The economy (60%)

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🔫 An 'Asian NATO' (26%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤝 Mending domestic political ties (13%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (Write in!) (2%)

Your two cents:

• 📈 E.K.H: “It's hard to do anything big abroad without shoring up support at home first, and that goes straight through people's pocketbooks.”

• 🔫 E.R.H: “The biggest threat to any economy is rising geopolitical tensions. The ball has been rolling for a while in China - Japan will need to be prepared for when China moves.”

• 🤝 D.L: “The LDP is facing unprecedented criticism; Ishiba needs to make sure the party is strong internally so that it can keep its influence in the Diet (Japan’s parliament) and elsewhere.”

• ✍️ M.S.M: “The ageing population is a cliff due to its low birth rate. Japan needs more incentives on genuine family friendly policies.”