🌍 Iran launches first-ever direct attack on Israel

IN TODAY’S EDITION

Hi Intriguer. One way to describe Iran’s historic attack on Israel yesterday (our lead story) is to say it was “performative”. I.e, it was calibrated to send a message rather than cause damage.

That may be right, though here’s a question: did Iran’s 350 missiles and drones do such little damage because Iran gave everyone a heads-up? Or was it because Israeli and allied air defences were superior? Or was it because half of Iran’s ballistic missiles ended up failing? The answer, of course, is all three.

But enough from me. Let’s dive in, shall we?

PS - Do you live around DC? Join us for a chat with spy-turned-author Jack Beaumont on Wednesday April 24th!

THE HEADLINES

Scholz in China.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz travelled to China over the weekend, accompanied by a delegation of executives from Mercedes, BMW and other firms. The German leader reiterated concerns about China’s unfair competition, which were reportedly dismissed as “fake questions” by the Chinese side. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen delivered a similar message to China a week ago.

The ‘forgotten’ war.
Today (Monday) marks a year since fighting broke out between two rival factions in Sudan, displacing some 8.5 million people. A distracted international community has met just 5% of the UN’s latest humanitarian appeal, so France is today hosting a conference to raise awareness (and funds).

Samsung regains top phone maker crown.
Apple iPhone shipments dropped by around 10% over the first quarter of the year, allowing Samsung to regain the top spot. The South Korean giant now accounts for almost 21% of the global market, while Apple - facing increased competition - now holds 17%.

Singapore PM to step down.
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will step down next month, handing the reins to his deputy Lawrence Wong after two decades in power. The move comes ahead of general elections next year.

Trump ‘hush money’ trial kicks off.
Former US President Donald Trump will appear in a New York courthouse today, accused of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in relation to a hush payment made to Stormy Daniels. He’s the first former US president to stand trial in a criminal case, which is expected to run for six to eight weeks.

TOP STORY

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

So this whole situation now looks like one giant Rubik’s cube of leverage, escalation, deterrence, and destabilisation. But have a think about who 'wins':

• Israel has now flexed two of its sources of power (air defence and alliances), and seen two of its vulnerabilities moved off the front pages (political instability and the humanitarian toll in Gaza), watching them both be replaced with a vivid global illustration of the very thing Israel has been warning about for decades: Iranian missiles over Israel.

• Meanwhile, Iran claims it's now shown its resolve, flexed its ability to penetrate Israel's air defences, and perfectly calibrated it all (‘maximum symbolism, minimum damage’) to avoid escalation.

But ultimately, rather than deter Israel, Iran essentially gave it a much-needed moment of international solidarity. That’s an Israeli win. And yet Israel's leaders - fuelled by the historic sight of Iranian missiles over Jerusalem - will struggle to pocket that solidarity and heed the world’s calls for restraint.

That turns up the heat for the region, where everyone keeps saying they don't want a wider war, and yet everyone keeps crisscrossing the map with red lines: each intended to end the cycle, but all collectively raising the risk of accelerating it.

Also worth noting:

• Shortly before launching its attack, Iran also seized a Portuguese-flagged cargo ship carrier in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming it was Israeli-owned. 20 sailors from the Philippines were on board.

• Shrapnel from Iran’s attack on Israel critically injured a 10-year-old Arab-Israeli Bedouin girl in the Negev desert.

• Hours after Iran’s attack, Hamas reportedly rejected the latest ceasefire proposal from mediators.

• Following the weekend’s attacks, the US House Speaker now says he’ll “try again” to bring a stalled US military aid package to a vote, including support for Israel plus potentially Ukraine and US allies in Asia.

A MESSAGE FROM GROUND NEWS

Be informed, not instructed

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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇨🇳 China: The third-highest ranking member of China’s Communist Party has travelled to North Korea to meet the hermit state’s leader, Kim Jong-un. China’s official read-out offers little detail, though quotes Zhao Leji as saying the two neighbours have long been “good neighbours and struggled together”.

2. 🇩🇪 Germany: Chancellor Olaf Scholz has announced he’s sending a Patriot air defence system and additional missiles to Ukraine, but is still holding out on sharing Germany’s highly-coveted Taurus missiles. The decision follows a call on Saturday between the Chancellor and Ukrainian President Zelensky focusing on recent Russian airstrikes.

3. 🇮🇩 Indonesia: Jakarta has denied using air strikes in West Papua against a secessionist armed group, after a New Zealand pilot being held captive by the group appeared in a video accusing the Indonesian military of making his situation unsafe. The Kiwi pilot was taken hostage by the West Papua National Liberation Army early last year.

4. 🇨🇱 Chile: Chilean authorities have announced plans to seek the extradition of two Venezuelans suspected of playing a part in the murder of a political dissident. Ronald Ojeda, a former military lieutenant and Venezuelan dissident, was murdered in Chile in February.

5. 🇳🇪 Niger: Russian military instructors have arrived in Niger as part of a security agreement between Moscow and Niger’s military junta. Since the army overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum last year, the country has cut military and diplomatic ties with France and has withdrawn from a military agreement with the US.

EXTRA INTRIGUE

Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news 

• Norway’s Arctic region is asking the EU Commission to approve the establishment of a time zone with 26-hour days.  

• The French parliament has declared that cows mooing at night cannot be considered a noise complaint. 

• A German art gallery has fired its employee after he hung up his own artwork to jumpstart his career. 

• A house was seen floating across the San Francisco Bay last week. 

• Chechnya has banned dance music that’s too fast or too slow, instead insisting that any music must “conform to the Chechen mentality and sense of rhythm”.

CHART OF THE DAY

In 1970, the UN endorsed a call for wealthier countries to give 0.7% of their national income in aid, with a view to hitting that target by 1980. As of 2023, only five members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), considered a club of wealthier nations, reached the target.

DAILY POLL

Last Thursday’s poll: Do you see a real risk of war spreading in our world?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🔥 Yep - the ingredients are there (64%)

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⛰️ It'll be a bumpy few years, but the world won't make this mistake again (32%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✌️ Chill - it's just a beat-up by folks selling guns and newspapers (4%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)

Your two cents:

• 🔥 E: “Large-scale peace has historically been the exception not the norm.”

• 🔥 B.J: “The elements are there. World leaders tend to include some individuals with big egos that make them focused on their own survival at any cost, insensitive to obvious dynamics, and surrounded by people who are forced to agree with them (or pay the consequences). Sometimes, it takes just a few key people like that to do something ill-advised that escalates a situation to the point where countries have to respond.”

• ⛰️ C.O.N: “We all lose the next one and no economy would be left unscathed.”

• ✍️ N.J: “If you look beyond the headlines there already is war all over the planet. Fortunately each has stayed "local" mostly. But Sudan, South Sudan, much of western Africa, Myanmar, China- India, Korea-Korea are all ongoing conflicts.”