Today’s briefing:
— Guess who’s changing their constitution
— Guess who won Spain’s top award, and…
— Guess who became a Buddhist
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. On my last work trip to Beijing, I put the embassy word out seeking the best roast duck in town, and boy did the team deliver: a colleague wrote me an address in mandarin and suggested I show the note to a taxi driver.
The first few drivers shook their heads in absolute disbelief, until the last guy flashed a grin I assumed meant “I got you, fam”. A full hour’s drive later, my trusty guide started stopping every few blocks to yell for directions at random pedestrians who would point onwards and onwards, until we started crawling through Beijing’s dark outskirts.
We saw no sign of roast duck, but you bet we could smell it. So we followed our nose like some Looney Tunes-ass duo until we reached a random door the driver insisted was it.
Tables glanced up in surprise as this rare foreigner peered inside, then a startled waiter quickly ushered me to a table way down the back. But as I took my seat, a loud commotion started and I glanced up to see a young woman absolutely sprinting towards me, grave look on her face, knocking chairs as she crashed my way.
My life flashed before my eyes — what am I doing here, why is she charging at me, I just wanted duck — until SPLAT! The lady did a projectile vomit into the sink right behind me.
The link to today’s briefing about some intriguing moves to change constitutions? Let’s go with… the perils of a weak constitution.
P.S. — A special welcome to the world for the beautiful baby girl born to our superstar co-founder Helen and husband Neil!
Number of the day
~10%
That’s the hotel occupancy that Moody’s Analytics (via the WSJ) is now projecting for Dubai in Q2 2026, down from ~80% pre-war. Some local operators dispute this.
The amend trend.
Some things, like the Rosetta Stone or the Madrid-Barcelona rivalry, are written in stone. Others, like Italy’s wartime alliances, are very much open to adjustment.
It turns out more constitutions fall in that second bucket right now, so let’s take a tour through some intriguing constitutional tweaks, starting with…
🇰🇵 North Korea
Local dictator Kim Jong Un pushed through a series of changes to North Korea’s constitution this week. It feels a bit like Al Capone updating the neighbourhood suggestions box, but two elements of this particular performance stand out:
One emphasises that the State Affairs Commission chair (aka Kim himself) has sole authority over North Korea’s nukes, though he can delegate whenever needed. Why?
It elevates Kim’s control from political norm to legal bedrock, and
It constitutionally guarantees nuclear retaliation if anyone tries to pull a decapitation-strike against him (à la Maduro).
The other edit scrubs any reference to eventual unification between the autocratic North and the free South, for the first time since they split in 1948. Lest there be any doubt, the text even spells out that North Korea borders China, Russia, and South Korea. Why?
It’s arguably the North’s biggest ideological U-turn since 1948, and might serve two aims:
First, by locking in his 2024 policy shift from ‘the South is a wayward sibling’ to ‘the South is an enemy state’, he can justify his iron grip back home. But also…
Second, by renouncing any claim over the South, maybe Kim is effectively saying, “we’re not coming for your turf, so don’t tread on ours”.
Now jet over the Chosŏn Tonghae (DPRK’s name for the Sea of Japan) to…
🇯🇵 Japan
When you think of Japan, protests aren’t exactly the first thing that comes to mind. You’re thinking of France. And yet on Sunday’s Constitution Memorial Day (May 3), some 50,000 folks gathered to signal opposition to any proposed changes to Japan’s 1947 constitution.
Mostly US-written during Japan’s post-WWII occupation, the text has a unique pacifist clause (Article 9) which declares, “the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation”, adding that “land, sea, and air forces… will never be maintained”.
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party has wanted to ease that article ever since the party’s 1955 founding, but it was really the late PM Shinzo Abe who a) brought the idea into the mainstream, and b) linked it to China’s current expansionism and re-armament.
As we flagged, Abe’s protégé and Japan’s current leader (Takaichi) now wants to amend Article 9 to name-drop Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and the need for limited self-defence.
Those in favour point not just to China, but a more equivocal US ally. Opponents, however, argue the pacifist clause is an inalienable feature of modern Japan that enhances the country’s security by keeping it out of confrontations.
Both are legitimate perspectives in any free society. But guess which perspective some of Japan’s autocratic neighbours eagerly amplify?
Anyway, if Japan just wants a few edits, some folks want a full rewrite over in…
🇵🇱 Poland
Last Sunday (the anniversary of Poland’s old 1791 constitution), Warsaw’s semi-ceremonial president (Nawrocki) appointed a council to work towards a new constitution.
His argument? The current 1997 document creates rival power centres (president vs PM), leading to chronic gridlock. So he wants a new constitution ready by 2030.
Guess what else is happening in 2030? His own presidential re-election campaign. And guess which role (president or PM) he thinks should be stronger? Hah.
The populist president’s centrist rival, Prime Minister Tusk, is dismissing it all as a “political game”, noting Nawrocki lacks the two-thirds majority for any constitutional amendments. But it’ll probably help Nawrocki keep firing up his base for now (he’s also calling for a September referendum on EU climate policies).
And speaking of entirely ~new constitutions…
🇦🇲 Armenia
Yerevan has had a new draft constitution since at least March, but it’s not yet public. Why? Maybe they’re quibbling over those commas, or maybe it’s next month’s elections, the first since rival Azerbaijan seized the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
A core part of their US-mediated peace involves Armenia changing its constitution to renounce any claim over Nagorno-Karabakh, but the pro-West PM Pashinyan is no doubt wary it's a tough sell for his people, so seems to be slow-walking until after election day.
Intrigue’s Take
Comedian Jim Jefferies has a funny line about someone insisting, “you can’t touch the second amendment!”, to which he responds: “Yeah you can. That’s why they call it an ‘amendment’!” We’re chuckling here, not to amble onto the minefield of US gun laws, but to recall that even the semi-sacred founding constitutions of a superpower can change.
And that’s what we’re seeing this week: rising pressures — threats, rivalries, build-ups — all translating into domestic urgency to update the rulebook. Whether it’s Kim Jong-un formally burying the reunification pipedream, or Japan debating whether pacifism still equals safety, or Armenia slow-walking a painful concession, the message is the same: maybe that document from last century (or last millennium) is no longer fit-for-purpose?
The catch, of course, is that rewriting the rules is never neutral. Sure, done right, it can edify and unify a generation. Done wrong, it polarises and weakens a nation. The deciding factor tends to be the calibre of leadership, and right now? This feels like a mixed bag.
Sound even smarter:
Here’s a useless fun fact: both Poland and Japan celebrate their constitution day on 3 May. You are so welcome.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN — We still calling this a ceasefire?
The US and Iran are again trading blame after Iran targeted (but apparently didn’t hit) three US destroyers, while the US claimed hits on Hormuz targets across Qeshm Island, Abbas port, and elsewhere. President Trump is dismissing it all as “just a love tap”, urging Iran’s regime to sign a deal asap. (BBC)
Comment: It’s the most serious ceasefire test yet, but it also suggests neither side really wants full escalation right now. And yet, pending details of the US peace deal Iran is now reviewing, the exit ramp still looks vexed: Iran refusing to give up its nuclear status, and the US demanding something approaching dismantlement before any meaningful sanctions relief.
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Tariffs torpedoed?
A federal court has ruled President Trump’s 10% across-the-board Liberation Day tariffs illegal. In a 2-1 decision, the US Court of International Trade found s122 of the Trade Act only allows temporary tariffs to address acute balance-of-payments crises, not Trump’s broader trade strategy. (Le Monde)
Comment: It’s a narrow ruling that only blocks tariff collection for the plaintiffs (the State of Washington, a spice importer, and a toy company!) while a broader case continues. The White House is appealing via a Federal Circuit process that typically takes months, and a Supreme Court appeal thereafter seems likely if that fails. So the status will probably keep quo-ing for a while yet.
🇨🇳 CHINA — 24 months to live?
A military court has sentenced two former defence ministers to death on corruption charges, with a two-year reprieve — a sharp escalation in Xi’s military purge. (SCMP)
Comment: In China, death sentences with reprieve are typically commuted to life imprisonment. Still, Xi’s message is clear: he’s dialling up the People’s Liberation Army fear-and-loyalty factor, highlighting that nobody is untouchable, and no punishment is unthinkable.
🇪🇸 SPAIN — Above the parapet.
Prime Minister Sánchez has awarded controversial UN special rapporteur Francesca Albanese one of Spain's highest honours for her Gaza work. (The Guardian)
Comment: Beyond any award criteria, it’s a show of defiance against allies like the US and Germany, who’ve voiced shock at Albanese’s statements on Israel over the years. It also fits Sánchez’s broader pattern — visits to Beijing, denying US overflight against Iran — of independent moves that play well to his progressive base.
🇸🇧 SOLOMON ISLANDS — Gone with the vote.
Parliament has ousted PM Manele in a 26-22 no-confidence vote, after a court finally forced him to recall parliament following the collapse of his coalition. (RNZ)
Comment: It was Manele’s predecessor who stunned the West with *that* 2022 China security pact. Manele himself then tried a China-West balancing act, but that’s now over. So speculation now returns to whether perennial hopeful, son of the founding father, and friend of Intrigue, Peter Kenilorea Jr, can finally muster the numbers. He’s always flagged the possibility of pivoting his strategically-located nation back West.
🇭🇳 HONDURAS — Crunch time.
Newly-elected and Trump-backed President Asfura says he’s reviewing all China-linked deals, as he weighs up delivering on his campaign pledge to reverse his predecessor’s 2023 China switch, and instead pivot back to Taiwan. (Bloomberg $)
Comment: Ouch for Beijing. The China honeymoon barely lasted three years before local disappointment around actual investment set in. With shallow economic ties, Beijing doesn’t have a lot of leverage to inflict pain if Honduras does flip back to Taiwan. Wouldn’t want to be China’s ambassador in Tegucigalpa right now…
🇸🇸 SOUTH SUDAN — In and out.
President Kiir has now fired his army chief and finance minister, barely weeks after dismissing his foreign minister, security chief, and parliamentary leaders. (Reuters)
Comment: It’s all a paranoid, pre-election power-grab amid economic malaise and fears of renewed civil war, fuelling speculation Kiir will ditch elections altogether.
🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA — ISIS women charged.
Three ISIS-linked Australian women now face criminal charges after returning to Melbourne from Syria — two face charges of crimes against humanity and owning slaves in Syria, while the third faces terror offences for allegedly joining ISIS. (CNN)
Comment: As Damascus-Kurdish ties fray, so does the fragile system that’s long kept thousands of ISIS members and families locked in prison camps. And that now shoots the dilemma back to their home governments, grappling with appalled electorates, vigilant courts, and vocal opposition parties.
Extra Intrigue
Intrigue’s weekend reccs
Read: A short graphic novel, Arrested by Phone, on the dark side of the digital revolution.
Watch: The new Rolling Stones trailer for their upcoming album, Foreign Tongues.
Cook: Try the lazy recipe for ‘Blanket Dumplings’, still going viral.
Monk of the day
Credits: Kang Jung-Hyun.
Buddhism’s newest disciple just dropped, and it’s not a celeb, but a 4ft humanoid robot!
Built by China’s Unitree, it’s now a member of South Korea’s largest Buddhist sect (Jogye), with monks even giving it the Dharma name of Gabi (a blend of Siddhartha and the Korean word for compassion). To boot, it took five specially adapted vows:
Respect and do not harm life
Do not damage other robots or objects
Obey humans and do not disrespect them
Conserve energy and do not overcharge your batteries, and
Do not engage in deceptive behaviour or expressions.
But… why? The monks say they were hoping to engage younger generations, and promote harmonious human-robot co-existence.