🌍 The best week of Erdoğan's life

Plus: Tree of the day

December 13, 2024

IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ The best week of Erdoğan’s life
2️⃣ Intrigue’s weekend recommendations
3️⃣ Tree of the day

Hi Intriguer. During the Intrigue team’s appearance on 2WAY the other night, I was asked what was behind Putin’s decision to withdraw Russian troops from Syria last weekend... what did Putin see that others missed?

It’s just so tempting to see every decision as part of some master strategy in a game of real life risk, but the truth is that Putin was caught out by Assad’s downfall, and had no other choice. Every world leader, including Putin, puts their pants on one leg at a time, just like the rest of us.

Keep the spirit of that thought in mind, if not the mental image, as you read our main story looking at Turkey’s recent geopolitical wins, because they make Erdogan appear like he’s playing 4D chess while everyone else is at the kiddie table eating crayons.

THE HEADLINES

China’s policymakers promise more stimulus.
At China’s Central Economic Work Conference, which sets the economic agenda for the coming year, top officials pledged more spending, higher borrowing, and lower interest rates to support the world’s second-largest economy, as growth continues to underwhelm.

Trump invites Xi Jinping to inauguration.
Breaking with convention, Donald Trump has invited various world leaders to attend his January inauguration. President Xi has apparently declined — it’s hard to imagine China’s leader paying homage to the US right now. Meanwhile, Trump has tweeted that, after meeting with the main US dockworkers union, he opposes port automation.

Macron to announce new PM today.
The French president was expected to name a replacement for Michel Barnier yesterday, but instead says he’ll make his decision today (Friday). Rumour has it he wants an alliance with the centre-left after his last short-lived government was toppled by the right, though the various names currently doing the rounds include fellow centrists.

Myanmar junta loses border with Bangladesh.
Myanmar’s military has now lost control of its entire 270km (170mi) border with Bangladesh after fierce fighting with insurgents. It’s yet another setback for the ruling junta whose 2021 coup tipped the country into an ongoing civil war.

UK economy shrinks unexpectedly.
Britain’s GDP shrank by 0.1% in October, taking many by surprise and adding to the new-ish Labour government’s woes. We looked at some of the UK’s challenges yesterday.

TOP STORY

Why Erdoğan is having the best week of his life 

You can’t fake that smile.

You might be having a great week, but nobody’s having a better time than Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. No he didn’t just fall in love, climb a mountain, or watch C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. At least, not as far as we know?

Rather, in just a few days, Erdoğan has:

  • Helped eject rival autocrats from a neighbour (Syria)

  • Restored Turkey’s influence over what was long part of its Ottoman empire, and

  • Reasserted Turkey’s role as a major player by brokering peace in Africa.

Let’s get into it. 

  1. Syria 

We’ve written briefly about Erdoğan’s role in Assad’s fall next door, but it’s a cracker.

Ties were never easy, but like almost everyone else in the region appalled by Assad gassing and barrel-bombing his own people during the civil war, Erdoğan cut ties.

His spooks already knew many opposition players operating just over his 900km (560mi) border with Syria, so Erdoğan built on those ties as emerging groups seized Syria’s border crossings. One ended up being the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led last week’s march on Damascus.

While Turkey denies any direct role in Assad’s ousting (and still lists HTS as terrorists), it wouldn’t and couldn’t have happened without Erdoğan’s nod. In fact, he eventually stopped pretending and just openly egged it on, sending his spy chief on a personal tour around Damascus with none other than the HTS leader himself (Golani).

So Erdoğan now has direct access and influence in Damascus. The question is what he’ll do with it. Sure, he’ll want help repatriating the three million Syrian refugees in Turkey, but he’ll also want HTS to turn a blind eye while he keeps hitting Kurdish groups, some with ties to the PKK (listed as a terrorist group in Turkey, the US, and elsewhere) — he wants a buffer along his border.

But that puts Erdoğan at odds with his NATO ally the US, which still has 900 troops in Syria helping those same Kurdish groups contain ISIS (including tens of thousands of detained ISIS members). Erdoğan doesn’t want an ISIS resurgence either. So what’s next?

That’ll partly depend on Trump, who’s tweeted his preference to stay out of it (an instinct Erdoğan will encourage). But there are influential voices in DC who back an autonomous Kurdish region, or at least oppose the notion of the US (again) abandoning its Kurdish allies.

  1. Somalia and Ethiopia  

While all this was playing out, Erdoğan somehow also stepped out on stage before international media in Ankara yesterday (Thursday), hand in hand with Somali leader Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his Ethiopian counterpart Abiy Ahmed. Why? To announce he’d just brokered a truce between the two feuding neighbours in the Horn of Africa. 

Part of the issue flared up in January when Ethiopia (the world’s most populous landlocked nation) inked a deal with neighbouring Somaliland, a self-ruling coastal strip Somalia claims as its own — the deal would’ve granted Ethiopia a base on the Gulf of Aden in return for potentially recognising Somaliland as a country. But of course, that irked Somalia. There are no major new details in this truce, but all three leaders now say they’re figuring out a way for Ethiopia to get sea access without undermining Somalia.

The broader message here is that where traditional Western powers can’t or won’t impose a solution, Turkey will.

Why are we telling you all this? 

We often bang on about this emerging new multipolar world of ours, but it’s not often you get decades of evidence jammed into a single week of wins by one of the most intriguing resurgent players, Turkey.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

The missing nuance in the public narrative is that Erdoğan’s luck can still change on a dime: he’s accumulating resentment with each new fake-out, and just stiffed two major players (Iran and Russia) by helping boot them out of Syria, despite years of talks.

But he’s well placed to handle whatever comes next. Why? Here are just two reasons:

  • First, he’s now got the world’s third-largest diplomatic network after years of quiet but rapid growth. That eventually pays a dividend, whether you want to topple a dictator or broker a truce.

  • But second, it’s about the mission you set those diplomats and the political cover you give them. Erdoğan has a clear and assertive vision of Turkey’s place on the world stage, and his diplomats push it hard wherever they are. In contrast, many Western diplomats often seem scared of getting in trouble with their home governments, which are still debating what vision to even pursue.

The reality is, Erdoğan knows from bitter experience that if you don’t shape the world in your own image, others will shape it in theirs.

Also worth noting:

  • Turkey’s largest overseas military base is in Somalia, established in 2017 after several years of Turkish humanitarian presence.

  • Erdoğan reportedly just made the world’s first diplomatic appointment to post-Assad Syria. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has nominated his long-time backer and real estate investment mogul Tom Barrack as his ambassador to Turkey.

  • Intrigue’s very own John, Helen, and Jeremy just got together for a chat about Syria, the region, and what comes next - it’ll be available here later today.

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

  1. 🇹🇼 Taiwan: Taipei has now shut down its temporary emergency response centre, citing the end of China’s latest offshore military drills. Meanwhile, China has brushed off criticism of the drills, citing a quote from ancient military strategist Sun Tzu: “just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions."

  2. 🇪🇺 EU: As we foreshadowed yesterday, the European Central Bank has cut interest rates by a quarter-point to 3%, though it’s declined to pre-commit to any particular rate path for next year. EU policymakers now seem more worried about low growth as inflation cools.

  3. 🇲🇾 Malaysia: Kuala Lumpur has opened a national AI office, aimed at ensuring every segment of society enjoys the tech’s benefits. In launching the initiative, Malaysia’s digital minister invited citizens to "imagine a country where AI helps fishermen pinpoint the best fishing spots”, and “farmers get to optimize land use".

  4. 🇵🇾 Paraguay: AsunciĂłn has reopened its embassy in Jerusalem, joining Honduras, Guatemala, Kosovo, PNG, and the US in recognising the city as Israel’s capital. Most countries run their embassies out of Tel Aviv amid overlapping Israeli-Palestinian claims to Jerusalem.

  5. 🇿🇲 Zambia: The African Development Bank has approved a $108M loan to Zambia to help boost revenue and diversify the economy through initiatives like agricultural mechanisation. Drought-hit Zambia is also set to receive around $185.5M from the IMF, subject to board approval.

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EXTRA INTRIGUE

Weekend recommendations from Team Intrigue

  • Bake your first batch of holiday cookies — we suggest the NYT’s Iced Peppermint variety for both aesthetic and taste reasons.

  • Watch Black Doves, a new action-packed spy series starring Keira Knightley (no, it’s not set in the 1800s).

  • Read why some believe Giorgia Meloni is now Europe’s most influential person.

TREE OF THE DAY

This year’s Christmas tree in London’s Trafalgar Square. Credits: @trafalgartree on X.

Londoners are dissing this year’s Christmas tree in Trafalgar Square, tossing around spicy adjectives like “scrawny” and “half dead.” But many folks don’t seem to realise the tree is actually a gift from the city of Oslo in allied Norway. Awkward…

You see, Oslo has been sending a tree to London since 1947 to say thanks for helping during WWII. This year’s tree, the 77th, hails from Grefsenkleiva, just north of downtown Oslo. It’s nearly 20 meters (65ft) high, and is decorated with traditional strings and lights.

So how has Oslo responded to all this shade? The tree’s X account, which has been around since 2012, is defending its honour in the best (and maybe only?) way possible: with a seemingly endless pipeline of tree-mendous puns.

FRIDAY QUIZ

It’s Republic Day in the Mediterranean island nation of Malta!

What year did Malta become a republic?

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Who ruled Malta before it became a republic?

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What is Malta's capital?

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