🌎 OPEC extends production cuts

IN TODAY’S EDITION

Hi Intriguer. They say that graduate schools are competitive to get into in the US. But in my opinion, it’s actually the classes that one has to bid for at these schools which are much tougher to get into.

Take for example the 'Geopolitics of Energy’ course which was super popular while I was at grad school. Students spent their ‘bidding points’ to outbid each other in order to enroll in the course - in part because the subject matter is so interesting.

A big part of the course focused on the correlation between the US’s rising energy independence (transitioning from a net energy importer to exporter) and the country’s decreasing appetite for dealing with OPEC.

As we’ll see in today’s top story, OPEC itself is about to brace for some policy changes heading into 2025.

THE HEADLINES

Macron vows not to step aside.
We left you on a cliff-hanger yesterday: with President Macron’s hand-picked government collapsing after a record 90 days, what would he do next? Well, he’s now asked his outgoing prime minister (Barnier) to continue in a caretaker capacity until Macron appoints a new prime minister “in the coming days”. Most of the possible PM names doing the rounds are broadly fellow centrists. Macron himself has also reiterated he won’t leave office until the end of his term in 2027.

Syrian rebels capture Hama.
Just days after (re)capturing Syria’s major city of Aleppo, Syria’s Islamist-led rebels have now stormed the city of Hama after regime forces withdrew. That brings the rebels one step closer to the capital Damascus. There’s no immediate sign of Assad’s allies Russia or Iran — both preoccupied with their own crises — coming to his rescue this time around.

EU set to finalise historic South American trade deal
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen has touched down in Uruguay amid signs the Europeans could be on the verge of signing a long-awaited free trade pact with Mercosur (the South American bloc with major agricultural players like Brazil and Argentina). Negotiations have run for decades and there’ve been false dawns before, but word is the deal could be announced today (Friday). France has long been a vocal critic of the negotiations, but it’s a little preoccupied at home right now (see above).

South Korean president’s own party calls for his suspension.
The head of President Yoon’s own ruling party has called for the swift suspension of the president’s powers, citing “credible evidence” he planned to arrest political leaders after briefly declaring martial law earlier this week. The main opposition party has scheduled an impeachment vote for tomorrow night (Saturday) and needs at least eight ruling party lawmakers to defect, before the constitutional court would then have final say.

Trump names ex-senator David Purdue as ambassador to China.
Donald Trump has nominated the former senator for Georgia and ex-CEO of Dollar General, David Perdue, as the next US ambassador to China. He previously lived in Hong Kong and Singapore during his decades as a business executive.

Russian FM Lavrov confronted by Western ministers in Malta.
Russia’s Sergei Lavrov has travelled to an EU member state for the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour in 2022, to attend a meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Malta. Several of his Western counterparts used Lavrov’s appearance to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, and he left the room for the US secretary of state’s address.

TOP STORY

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Vienna is famous among diplomats as the espionage capital of Europe, if not the world. And one of the top targets is the OPEC headquarters there — that’s partly because OPEC members like Iran and Venezuela turn up, and it’s not every day you get to eavesdrop on (let alone recruit) officials from these isolated regimes. But it’s also because of what they’re discussing: energy. Whether you’re a buyer or seller, it’s existential.

But that energy intrigue really only makes sense in a world of energy scarcity, and our energy transition is promising a future that looks rather different: energy abundance. It’ll take decades, but the rush to dominate key inputs is already there for all to see.

Still, for the foreseeable future, the world will keep burning oil. And that means, squabbling or not, OPEC’s members will still have influence, plus the continued attention of intel services everywhere. Just maybe not so much in Vienna: in an effort to plug leaks (and entrench Saudi dominance), the last three OPEC meetings have happened online, essentially rubber-stamping whatever deal the Saudis can work out beforehand.

Also worth noting:

• The coming and going of OPEC members is nothing new: Ecuador, Indonesia, Gabon, Qatar, and Angola have all withdrawn or suspended their membership at least once since the cartel’s establishment in 1960.

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: Baku’s foreign ministry has found itself in a spat with the British, Swiss, EU, and US ambassadors, who’ve all accused the ex-Soviet state of wrongfully detaining various journalists and rights advocates. Azerbaijan, which just hosted COP29, claims the ambassadors are interfering with active investigations.

2. 🇮🇸 Iceland: Reykjavik’s outgoing conservative government has extended whale hunting permits until 2029, triggering criticism from animal welfare groups. Iceland briefly suspended whaling last year after an official inquiry concluded the specific methods in use violated animal welfare laws.

3. 🇲🇾 Malaysia: Former leader Najib Razak has filed a new bid to serve his remaining prison time under house arrest, appealing a lower court’s earlier decision denying the request. A court jailed him back in 2022 over his role in an infamous mass embezzlement of one of the country’s state funds.

4. 🇵🇾 Paraguay: The only South American country still recognising Taiwan has kicked out an envoy from Beijing, declaring him persona non grata after he reportedly broke protocol and urged Paraguay to switch ties to China instead. The envoy was in town to attend a UNESCO meeting but ditched it and headed across town to lobby Congress instead, causing quite a stir.

5. 🇿🇦 South Africa: Authorities have recovered six bodies — and fear hundreds more people may be inside — at an abandoned, illegally operated mine 150km out of Johannesburg. Police have surrounded the mine and restricted food and water supplies to pressure the miners to emerge, but an unknown number are reportedly hunkering down rather than risking arrest by resurfacing.

EXTRA INTRIGUE

ICYMI: Intrigue’s top stories this week 🗞️

• In 🇰🇷 South Korea, President Yoon flirted briefly (if dramatically) with martial law, and now seems to be hanging on to power by a thread. Here’s why.

• In 💻 Silicon Valley, tech giant Intel’s chief resigned less than a week after securing a $7.9B grant from Washington. Here’s why.

• And in 🇸🇾 Syria , rebel groups are capturing key cities from the Assad regime, adding Hama to their haul just hours ago. Here’s why.

MEME OF THE DAY

Ever wondered what it’s like to be a diplomat? Well, our meme lord Jeremy has prepared a helpful illustration above. You see, many of us join the service with grand hopes of pursuing world peace. If you’re lucky, that’s generally synonymous with the thing you’re actually paid to do: pursuing the national interest.

That often means greasing the wheels between governments, which often means making the arrangements when a senior official comes to town. And that, in turn, means producing vast reams of documentation to help those senior officials know what to say in their meetings.

It’s more fun than it sounds.

FRIDAY QUIZ

The world celebrated World Soil Day yesterday (Thursday).