Today’s briefing:
— How Lula won
— Will Eisenkot beat Bibi?
— Stuffed bear diplomacy
Your Insider’s briefing:
— How Lula won
— Will Eisenkot beat Bibi?
— Stuffed bear diplomacy
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Before we dive into how Brazil’s President Lula pulled off that comeback, ponder these three classic sayings now lighting up football-mad Brazil’s socials, starting with…
“Ficou só no cheirinho”, or "they just got a whiff of it": trash-talk for when a rival gets just close enough to smell the trophy before blowing it at the buzzer.
Second, there’s “de virada é mais gostoso”, or “a comeback tastes so much sweeter”: the universal stadium anthem with a spicy double entendre, and…
Then there’s “o choro é livre”, or “crying is free”, as Lula’s supporters mock Bolsonaro’s calls for the complete annulment of Sunday’s shock result.
But lest you think it’s just the winners tweeting zingers, another local voiced some fun outrage at the role played by a bit of election-day overtime, before quipping (in a nod to FIFA’s polarising new feature), “what’s next, hydration breaks?!”
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
4 days
That’s how long China’s big Fifth Plenum political meeting will run after kicking off today (Monday). We’ll keep you posted, but it’s widely expected to focus more on internal party governance and discipline than anything else.
From way downtown
Ahhh… how to describe a survivor like the left’s President Lula in Brazil? For today, maybe he’s the ‘Cher’ of Latin American politics: just when you think you’ve witnessed that final farewell tour, you get yet another arena run and chart-topper.
So now that Lula has delivered Sunday’s major upset to the right’s Flávio Bolsonaro, let’s explain how and why in four numbers, starting with…
🎲 81%
These were the odds major prediction markets like Polymarket were actually pricing for a Bolsonaro win, with $200M at stake. 81%! Why?
Probably a mix of first-round momentum, the region's anti-incumbent trend, and the fact no modern candidate ever won a runoff after losing the first round!
But then rather than take all the razor-thin polls as a warning, bettors assumed Brazil's own voto envergonhado (shy vote) would get Bolsonaro over the line.
So... what happened?
✊ ~10.4 million
That's the massive extra vote haul President Lula just enjoyed, vaporising Bolsonaro's ~2.3 million first-round lead to win the runoff 4.4 million votes ahead.
It’s likely a mix of third-party voters swinging in behind Lula, plus a rare 2% runoff turnout surge (Brazil’s turnout traditionally tapers in the runoff).
How? Lula didn't suddenly convert 10.4 million folks to democratic socialism. Rather, he pivoted away from a left-vs-right framing towards a broader democracy vs denier play, and it seemingly worked.
Centre-right heavyweights (Tebet, Maia, Fraga) held their noses to back Lula on pro-democracy grounds, while Bolsonaro alienated that same base by threatening to impeach judges and publicly offering his coup-convicted dad any cabinet post.
But even if Lula framed his run around defending Brazil's institutions...
📉 -19.6%
That's how hard overnight trading initially slammed Brazilian shares via a key ETF. While we flagged on Friday how bond markets were already repricing higher repayment risks in another Lula term, jittery equity traders clearly got caught flat-footed, and are now unwinding weeks of bets on a more business-friendly Bolsonaro.
Still, the biggest market risk might now actually relate to...
⌛ 2 hours
In a rare move, that's the length of a voting-day extension the Supreme Court's Cristiano Zanin granted nationwide (for polls not yet closed) in response to petitions from both campaigns:
Lula went on live TV to publicly accuse conservative mayors of deliberately slashing bus runs to suppress lower-income, pro-Lula turnout, while...
Bolsonaro's team then filed its own petition citing severe rains and power outages in his own southern conservative strongholds.
So with both petitions in hand, Justice Zanin issued a nationwide 2-hour extension.
But Bolsonaro now wants the entire election annulled, describing Zanin’s move as "unacceptable".
Why? Notwithstanding his own extension request, Bolsonaro argues:
first, the judge (Zanin) was not just a Lula appointee, but Lula's own former criminal defence attorney. And not just any attorney, but the one who got Lula out of jail, restoring his eligibility to then return to politics! And...
second, Bolsonaro argues his own petition only sought a targeted extension in storm-damaged municipalities, but a pro-Lula judge instead converted that into the full national extension which (he says) aided Lula's urban voter base.
Now, the math here doesn't help Bolsonaro: he lost by ~4.4 million votes, which (on initial reports) seems more than the folks who cast their ballots during overtime.
But Bolsonaro's strategy is probably now less about math, and more about narrative: by shifting focus onto Zanin's Lula-aligned past, he might be hoping to shift the battle into the courtroom, the streets, or even the White House (see below).
And yet, Lula now gets a narrative win too: with another Bolsonaro now contesting another election, he’ll claim vindication that the Bolsonaros just can't be trusted with Brazil's democracy.
So while the vote is over, maybe the fight for legitimacy is just beginning?
In the meantime, Lula — now facing an opposition-dominated Congress — is pledging he’ll govern for all 215 million Brazilians.
Intrigue’s Take
This all leaves us with a lesson, an implication, and a dilemma.
First, the lesson…
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Intrigue’s Take
This all leaves us with a lesson, an implication, and a dilemma.
First, the lesson: when Lula appointed his personal defence attorney to the bench, he probably figured it was a smart move given Lula had just spent 580 days behind bars over what he always insisted were politically-motivated corruption charges.
But in a hyper-partisan environment, optics can quickly trump logic: perhaps Zanin isn’t the only judge who — faced with the same set of facts — would’ve gone with a national rather than local extension. But he's the only judge who once got Lula out of jail, casting a shadow over every decision he touches. Or to put it another way, maybe longer-term, the best thing for our political class is also what's best for our broader democracies: appointing folks who are, and who seem, beyond reproach.
Then second, there's the implication: aside from potentially becoming the biggest prediction market fail in history, any opening-bell bloodbath ahead might serve as a sobering reminder that algorithms still haven’t solved binary political risk. But zooming out, Brazil's macro reality still seems solid: being China's top supplier of both soy and now even crude means growth will keep chugging, while a divided Congress makes any shock shifts improbable for another few years.
Then finally, the dilemma, and it belongs to the White House: after long tipping the scales in favour of Trump-aligned Bolsonaro, how will DC handle this post-election spat? Leaning into Bolsonaro's own "irregularity" narrative would align with the doubts Trump’s own envoys were seeding from at least July, while offering a bit of partisan red-meat ahead of DC’s own midterms buzz-saw.
But the risks are massive: backing a loser’s challenge would risk an even bigger re-do loss, with folks outraged not just at Bolsonaro’s refusal to concede but now also US meddling; it'd also scorch longer-term US credibility in — and workability with — Latin America's biggest economy and the world's fourth-largest democracy.
That's really why diplomats always caution that, sure, we might have our favourites, but you need to filter every move through the prism of what if the other guy wins.
Wall Street can hedge, but capitals ultimately have to live with the portfolio.
Sound even smarter:
The final result was Lula’s 51.79% to Bolsonaro’s 48.21%.
Lula (80) will be 85 when he leaves office in 2030. Bolsonaro’s ex-president father (Jair) will be 97 when his full 27-year coup sentence concludes.
Pending any US statement, other powers (like South Korea, Mexico, Canada, Chile, India, China, and the EU) have already now congratulated Lula.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇱 ISRAEL — Poll position.
Voters head to the polls in a tightly contested election tomorrow (Tuesday) that could end Netanyahu’s second marathon in power, with opposition momentum coalescing behind former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. (Haaretz)
Comment: The latest polls suggest neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot are likely to secure the 61 seats needed to form a government, meaning Israel’s smaller parties (including those representing two million Arab-Israelis) might end up kingmaker again. Financial markets are rallying in anticipation an Eisenkot administration might lower the political risk and stabilise Israel’s regional ties, though that’s not because Eisenkot is a dove (he’s not); rather, markets probably see him as a potential circuit-breaker.
🇷🇸 SERBIA— Students oust the strongman.
After two years of student-led anti-corruption protests originally sparked by a deadly railway station collapse in 2024, long-time strongman Aleksandar Vučić has now conceded defeat in Sunday’s parliamentary elections. The new Student List movement — uniting a colourful mix of professors, activists, and even actors — ended up thumping Vučić’s nationalists by 14 points, pushing turnout to Serbia’s highest since at least 2000. (EuroNews)
Comment: There’s clearly a massive amount of Vučić fatigue at play here, and credit to the guy (for all his pre-electoral shenanigans) for just leaving power rather than pulling any more stunts. The funny thing about this victorious movement, however, is it’s staunchly decentralised, meaning it’s not actually clear who Serbia’s next leader might be, though one of the more prominent names in the mix is a cardiologist (Srdanović).
🇻🇪 VENEZUELA — Look who’s back.
Nobel laureate and opposition leader María Corina Machado is now back in Venezuela after a year in exile and seven thwarted attempts to return. (CNN)
Comment: The ultimate high-wire act begins now. Machado must mobilise her base for free elections without irking President Trump or rattling the US-installed Rodriguez administration; and ditto, Rodriguez knows Machado would wipe her in a free fight, but likewise knows arresting Machado would be a bridge too far for DC and many investors.
🇨🇳 CHINA — Kim comes to visit.
North Korea’s Kim Jong Un has returned from his day-trip to China’s border city of Dandong, where he met Wang Huning (#4 in Beijing) and Wang Yi (foreign minister). (Bloomberg $)
Comment: It’s always a guessing game how and why these two opaque systems interact, but this visit was probably about showcasing their new land-bridge, aligning ahead of China’s big APEC summit next month, and soothing Beijing’s nerves at how close Kim has been getting to Putin.
🇸🇬 SINGAPORE — Bad gas.
Indonesia has started curbing its natural gas exports to neighbouring Singapore, citing a need to prioritise its own expanding industries. In response, Singapore itself has sought to calm market jitters, noting the cuts amount to less than 2% of its daily gas demand. (Straits Times)
Comment: Compare that official explanation with the fact Indonesia’s energy minister (Bahlil) had just warned he’d review gas contracts with “uncooperative” partners. And… recall Singapore recently threatened to impose costs on Indonesian agri-business players causing the region’s current toxic haze crisis. So there’s a real chance this is less about helping local industries, and more about punishing unsympathetic neighbours.
🇧🇬 BULGARIA — Turnout burnout.
The Ukraine-sceptic incumbent (Yotova) has narrowly beaten the more pro-West Gyurov in a first round for Bulgaria’s mostly-ceremonial presidency. But because turnout just plunged to a record-low ~22% (way below the required 50%), the two foes now return for a runoff next weekend. Everyone had expected an easier win for the incumbent. (DW)
Comment: Sure, mostly ceremonial, but still interesting because a) Bulgaria’s head of state appoints interim governments during a political crisis, and b) the vote is still a good pulse-check for how Bulgaria navigates its NATO/EU commitments amid its centuries of history with Moscow. The abysmal turnout suggests the dominant emotion is just fatigue right now, after seven parliamentary elections in three years.
🇬🇦 GABON — Back online.
Authorities have finally lifted the eight-month ban on social media apps that President Nguema first imposed amid mass street protests. But important caveat: users now have to provide formal ID! (Africa News)
Comment: Authoritarian digital gymnastics at its finest, blending free speech with naked intimidation.
🇸🇦 SAUDI ARABIA — Risky re-opening.
Authorities are declining to clarify how they assessed it was now safe to reopen Riyadh’s international airport despite the Iran-aligned Houthis threatening a repeat of the attack that just left a dozen dead. (NYT $)
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly round-up of the world’s lighter news
Authorities have fined a South Korean soldier for leaving his post to “feed his lizard”.
Crims have used drones to smuggle chicken nuggets and booze into Canada’s most secure prison.
South Africa has set a new record for the world’s longest freight train, measuring in at an impressive 696 cars and 7.5km (4.7 mi) long.
A Canadian has won a council election by highlighting how unqualified he is.
And a large green parrot has caused havoc at Chicago’s O’Hare airport by pecking at passengers. Honestly, with the state of air travel nowadays, we get it.
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Embassy statement of the day
The original Winnie-the-Pooh and Friends stuffed toys, NY Public Library. Pic by Robert Kato
If there’s one thing Brits take very seriously, it’s their fictional stuffed bears. Want to joke about the royal family? Sure, go ahead. Their beige-coded cuisine? It’d be rude not to mock Spotted Dick. But you better not come for Paddington or Pooh.
The Bears (capitalised, mind you) are so sacred, they’ve now become a diplomatic matter, with the British embassy in DC having to deny Washington Post reports that London was plotting to repatriate the original Pooh Bear toys!
The century-old stuffed animals from the Hundred Acre Wood have lived at the New York Public Library since the 80s, when A.A. Milne’s publishers donated them.
And while many Brits would no doubt love Winnie to pop back for a visit, the British embassy wants it to be known that there is no bitter custody battle brewing, insisting “Pooh and his pals are in excellent hands”.
Today’s poll
With Bolsonaro now contesting the result, do you think there'll be post-election unrest in Brazil?
Thursday’s poll: How do you feel about India's future?
🚀 It's got all the ingredients for success (43%)
🚧 Still too many structural barriers (54%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (3%)
Your two cents:
🚧 M: “India's state is still too involved in the country's commercial world. A lot more free enterprise and less red tape would help the country develop.”
🚀 W.K: “India's young, talented and energetic population is in a race to get rich before their nation gets demographically old.”
✍️ D: “It will continue to be a magnificent mess. The world’s largest democracy contains an intriguing mix of plucky ingenuity, cultural barriers and mostly misunderstood cultural variation.”