🌍 What Xi really wants in North Korea

Your Insider’s briefing:
— What Xi really wants in North Korea
— Peru’s nailbiter election
— New Gen-Z trend just dropped

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50.09% vs 49.91%

That’s now the left-populist Roberto Sánchez’s slight lead over the right-populist Keiko Fujimori in Peru’s high-stakes election, with ~97% of votes counted. Translating to a razor-thin 30k vote margin, it’ll likely all (again!) come down to overseas ballots.

If you really love someone, let them go…

But if they then run into the arms of Vladimir Putin, maybe go back and hug them tighter?

At least that’s what might’ve been on Xi Jinping’s mind when he decided to schedule his first trip abroad for 2026 (!), and his first visit to Korea’s hermit North since 2019.

After a personal tarmac welcome from local dictator Kim Jong Un and his wife Ri Sol-ju, the two ol’ neighbours rolled into town past synchronised crowds, epic flags and portraits, and cute kids with balloons, amid what state outlets described as “thunderous cheers”.

But now that Xi and his famous wife (Peng Liyuan) have returned home from their night in Kim’s Kumsusan State Guesthouse, what was Xi really doing in North Korea?

Here are four top explanations, starting with… (yes)…

Xi isn’t visiting because June is a lovely time to see Pyongyang — sure, the climate is pleasant, but monsoon season hits any day now. The official reason is to mark the 65th anniversary of China’s only mutual defence pact, signed between Zhou Enlai and Kim’s grandfather back in 1961.

And okay, 65 years is a beautiful blue sapphire anniversary, but surely Xi could’ve just sent a nice fruit basket. So why the visit?

He’s partly just signalling that he’s still committed to Kim. But speaking of commitments…

With Xi largely watching from the sidelines, Putin and Kim have now spent three years pumping their ties: Putin needed help invading his smaller neighbour, and duly received ~10,000 North Korean troops and 5,000 engineers, plus shells and rockets.

In return? Kim has received Russian tech (spy satellites, air defence, electronic warfare), combat experience, a mutual defence treaty, oil and food shipments, plus hundreds of millions in annual remittances from the 30,000+ North Korean workers now in Russia.

And that’s a legit haul for Kim, but it still pales compared to the bigger picture of Putin effectively helping Kim solidify his hermit state as a power beyond Beijing’s shadow.

So… how does Xi feel about this? There’s breathlessness among the commentariat, but our sense is he’s probably got mixed feelings, like Kanye interrupting Taylor at the VMAs: you enjoy the chaos, but you’re not sure this will end well for anyone — sure, helping Putin’s failed invasion of Ukraine also means distracting and diluting Western power.

But a more confident and independent North Korea arguably also just loosens Xi’s leverage over this corner of China’s periphery, especially given Kim already went…

Glancing through China’s readout from Monday’s Kim meeting, there’s one radioactive elephant in the room that goes totally unmentioned: Kim’s illegal nukes.

To be clear, Xi didn’t just forget. How could he: Kim literally just toured a new nuclear site last week, and pledged an “exponential” ramp-up for his illegal nukes ahead.

Rather, the reality is this was a striking omission by a UN Security Council member responsible for enforcing nuclear rules against Kim. But it wasn’t new: the last time Xi publicly reiterated support for “denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula” was in 2023! 

So why the change? We’d argue it’s a mix of a) the perceived futility of reversing DPRK’s nuclear advances at this stage, and relatedly b) Xi prioritising alliance and border stability over what he might see as Western-led concerns around a treaty ally’s nuclear program.

Besides, there are more profitable subjects to focus on, like… 

When Singapore’s foreign minister swung through North Korea last month, he dropped a surprisingly gushing video about the boom there since his last visit eight years ago.

And Western outlets are now backing up all the fancy-car and oven-fired pizza anecdotes, with even the WSJ declaring North Korea “the world’s most surprising economic success story” — Pyongyang supposedly built more homes than Los Angeles or Chicago last year!

So… what’s going on? There’s clearly a base effect at play: you can grow your economy by a third when it’s tiny. But that boom still looks real, driven by arms sales to Putin, rebounding exports to China, and cybercrime proceeds.

And yet, how does Xi feel? Again, we’d argue he’s got mixed feelings, like Obi-Wan watching Anakin team up with Palpatine: technically advancing the plot against the Republic, but urgh you’ve got a bad feeling. Yes, a prosperous North Korea means a stable border. But it also gives Kim more room to manoeuvre, and erodes Xi’s leverage.

So that might be why Xi used his visit to call for the “full reopening of border crossings and the resumption of civil aviation flights and international passenger trains” — ie, to reassert China as North Korea’s economic patron, plus Xi’s related leverage over his periphery.

But will it be enough to woo Kim back?

After decades as one of the most sanctioned regimes on Earth, today’s Kim family is somehow now richer, more stable, and more independent than at any point in junior’s 14-year rule. And his nukes (together with Putin’s arms spree) have been a core part of that story, helping deliver real cash, oil, food, tech, and even a defence treaty.

So just think about some of the lessons others might glean from that kind of outcome…

After decades as one of the most sanctioned regimes on Earth, today’s Kim family is somehow now richer, more stable, and more independent than at any point in junior’s 14-year rule. And his nukes (together with Putin’s arms spree) have been a core part of that story, helping deliver real cash, oil, food, tech, and even a defence treaty.

So just think about some of the lessons others might glean from that kind of outcome:

First, it arguably vindicates nukes as the ultimate regime-survival tool. Cross that threshold and find one revisionist great-power patron, then wait out the West’s leverage, if not interest. Those new apartment blocks start to look more like a giant middle finger.

But second, absent Xi even pretending to care, Trump’s rumoured interest in reviving DPRK nuclear talks now looks even more futile than the last round, particularly with Iran’s mullahs having just stared down America’s big stick (war). And speaking of Iran…

Third, if Kim is showing the nuclear promised land, it’ll vindicate not only Iran’s hardliners pushing to cross the threshold, but also its neighbours and foes still hustling to stop it.

The result of all these lessons looks to us less like any world order we grew up in, and more like some new world of networked autocracies propping one another up with arms, tech, sanctions-evasion, and diplomatic coverage.

So okay, if military power alone looks insufficient against Iran, and economic power alone looks insufficient against the Kim family, what power is left? The emerging answer — and one you hear from voices like Finland’s Stubb — is some kind of alignment of middle and free powers doing the same thing but in reverse: backing one another via defence, tech, and supply chains, in a kind of flexible multilateralism that shares the same basic True North, but without demanding complete philosophical alignment on the route.

And yet… to see any hint of that right now, dear Intriguer, you’ve first got to squint past all the trade wars, culture wars, and domestic political cycles. But squint we must.

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A new Gen Z trend just dropped in South Korea, and it’s called dopamine sites — gloriously fake websites that deliver the full dopamine hit of a late-night Uber Eats or impulse Fashion Nova order, but without any actual hit to your wallet or waistline!

You browse the catalogue, stuff your virtual shopping cart, ‘place’ that sweet sweet order, and even track your eager courier, but the order never actually shows up because it’s all fake! You get the pure, raw, uncut anticipation of the retail hunt, but without any cost.

Meanwhile, another local has come up with a virtual cigarette break, where you chat anonymously with other stressed souls while aimlessly watching a timer. He wanted to give non-smokers the same ‘damta’ (cigarette break), just without the cough or smell.

Now, we’re mindful not to over-index on any single internet whimsy, but it does all feel on-brand for South Korea’s youth, who are now navigating brutal housing costs, an intense work culture, and a musical chairs-themed job market. Anyway, take comfort knowing that somewhere in Seoul, there’s now a fake rider “arriving in 8 minutes”.

Yesterday’s poll: In this chaotic world of ours, where do you stand on golf?

🏌️ Love it (12%)
⛳ Play when I can (16%)
🥱 Peaceful waste of time (72%)

Your two cents: