Today’s briefing:
— 4 elections and a personality test
— A surprising move for the yen
— Dictatorial drugs
Your Insider’s briefing:
— 4 elections and a personality test
— A surprising move for the yen
— Dictatorial drugs
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. One reason I love today’s briefing on September’s most intriguing elections (including one in Switzerland) is it finally offers an excuse to cite that classic Futurama episode satirising Switzerland’s sacred neutrality, all via a distant land called Neutral Planet:
Its motto is Live Free or Don’t
Its leader (“Your Neutralness”) utters pearls like “all I know is my gut says maybe”, and
He gives the ultimate, neutral farewell: "If I don't survive, tell my wife… hello."
So shall we issue the beige alert, fly the white flag, and read on?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
$729B
That’s how much money migrants sent home to low-and-middle-income countries last year, marking a 94% increase over the amount recorded a decade earlier. We’re talking more than four times the world’s entire official development assistance (aid).
Electile dysfunction.
If politics truly is showbusiness for ugly people, then maybe this month is the Golden Globes: not the main event, half the room already knows who won, but hey, at least there's a bit of global branding?
And that’s all we need for a quick whip around the world’s elections, starting in...
🇷🇺 Russia: pre-cooked
Folks in Kamchatka, nine time zones ahead of Moscow, were first in line for Russia's first full parliamentary vote since Putin rolled his tanks into Ukraine.
Running today (Friday) through Sunday, the idea is to elect all 450 members of Russia's Duma, along with some regional parliaments and governors. Putin is also running ✌️ballots✌️ in the parts of Ukraine he’s occupying.
So... who's gonna win?
Haha. Putin's United Russia Party of course, thanks to a cocktail of…
a) ~30% support (populists, propaganda, and paychecks)
b) apathy (any genuine opposition is dead, de-listed, or driven abroad), plus...
c) cooking: gurus like Shpilkin have long documented statistical anomalies like 'Churov's Saw' and the 'Comet Tail' to chart all the stuffing and quota matching.
So then... what's the point? It's really a mix of...
i) stress test (governors have to hit turnout quotas to prove their loyalty)
ii) intimidation (showing elites that, war or not, the boss is still in control)
iii) legitimisation (see? Ukraine's ex-land is just more Russia!), and
iv) preparation (reassert control before the next unpopular mobilisation).
Now let's sail across the sliver of Baltic where Russia's EEZ very briefly kisses...
🇸🇪 Sweden: gridlocked
If everyone knows Putin's result in advance, Sweden is the opposite: it just took four days to confirm a photo finish, with a month or two of coalition talks now ahead.
The centre-right PM (Kristersson) has now resigned after voters seemingly tired of his coalition's polarising vibes. But don't confuse his loss for someone else winning: the centre-left's Magdalena Andersson now has the best chance of forming the next government, but her party scored its worst-ever result under universal suffrage, and now has a tough road ahead to stitch other left-leaning parties together.
Bottom line? The Swedes really voted for something like a customer service complaint more than a revolution. Meanwhile, we just saw some new fine print in...
🇹🇷 Turkey: the calendar hack
President Erdoğan has dominated Turkish politics for 23 consecutive years, and he's now 'technically' in his final term, scheduled to leave in May 2028. So that's that?
No, dear Intriguer, that is not that, because Erdoğan’s legal whisperer (an aide called Uçum) just confirmed Ankara's worst-kept secret: the plan is to bring the 2028 election forward by three weeks. Why? The constitution contains a cheat-code allowing the president to run for another term if parliament calls ✌️early✌️ elections.
Who cares? Well after years of jailing key rivals and dominating key institutions, we'll probably now see Erdoğan at the helm until at least 2033. And that means Turkey's political risk premium is here to stay for investors, while its transactionalism is here to stay for neighbours and NATO allies alike.
Anyway, if Erdoğan is rewriting the calendar, let's finish in the country that routinely votes on whether to rewrite everything...
🇨🇭 Switzerland: direct democracy
Next Sunday (27th), the Swiss will do what the Swiss do: yes, price a ski pass in three currencies, but also vote on a historic right-populist 'safeguard neutrality' initiative.
It's basically asking voters to enshrine a stricter definition of neutrality in the constitution, mostly ban the government from foreign sanctions and alliances, and thereby unwind what some see as the heresy of 2022 (when Switzerland matched Western sanctions on Russia).
Why do this? The populists argue that joining Western sanctions broke centuries of strategic ambiguity, compromised Switzerland's role as a peacemaker, and exposed the country to retaliation.
But critics (including the government and two-thirds of voters if you want to believe the polls) warn it'd just be a straitjacket, curbing Switzerland's flexibility, and leaving it more isolated in a more hostile 'hood.
So there you have it, folks: there are so many ways to hold an election in 2026, perhaps the only common thread above is the number three: a three-day coronation in Russia, a three-seat cliff-hanger in Sweden, a three-week calendar trick in Turkey, and a three-language lock (if we’re skipping Romansh) on neutrality in Switzerland.
Intrigue’s Take
The obvious way to think about elections is just via who wins. But the more intriguing lens is…
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Intrigue’s Take
The obvious way to think about elections is just via who wins. But the more intriguing lens is to ask what each system now really needs an election to do.
Russia’s elections these days are basically a ritual of regime maintenance: demonstrate control, measure loyalty, manufacture a mandate.
And Turkey’s elections look more like some kind of scheduling tool to ensure continuity.
The common thread between these first two nations is succession risk.
Sweden’s elections — a three-seat majority then a four-party haggle — now look more like a set of guardrails on where not to go. More brake than steering wheel. Maybe it’s a way to manage populist risks, but it risks fuelling those very same populist forces if the resulting coalition now struggles to actually govern.
And as for Switzerland? While the world outside gets darker, it feels like the Swiss are now taking a full-blown personality test: who are we? Who do we want to be?
Taken together, maybe our rattled world’s elections reveal less about where the voters want to go, and more about how our leaders intend to keep this show on the road.
Sound even smarter:
Turkey’s electoral intrigue is playing out against some market mayhem, after regulators clamped down on rigged investment funds and accidentally triggered a domino effect of redemptions, sell-offs, and central bank emergency liquidity injections.
Other elections we’re tracking include i) Morocco’s 23 Sept parliamentary elections (under the king’s watchful eye, of course); and ii) France’s indirect election for the senate, with ~95,000 elected officials and delegates shaping the upper house.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Tariff stick.
As we foreshadowed, Congress has now passed its big bipartisan sanctions bill, which President Trump is now expected to sign. It’s designed to empower (though not require) the president to impose tariffs of up to 100% on nations (principally China and India) still financing Putin’s invasion of Ukraine via energy deals. (PBS)
Comment: It’s the biggest dose of Putin pressure Congress has passed in two years, but it now leaves a diplomacy grenade on Trump’s desk: actually pulling the pin would blow up his China trade talks and risk a re-do of Beijing’s painful critical minerals curbs, so it’s hard to see that happening. The same move *could* be more effective against India, assuming the US could endure retaliation against its ag, machinery, and tech longer than India could withstand wipeout across textiles and gems. The other line you’ll hear is this risks pushing India closer to China, but that’s harder to swallow given the current state of China-India ties.
🇸🇦 SAUDI ARABIA — Jet set.
DC has started the process for a $24.3B sale of F-35 Lightning II fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom’s first shot at the West’s only in-production fifth-gen fighter. Lawmakers now have 30 days to try and kill the idea, which would fulfil a longstanding request from Riyadh. (AA)
Comment: The Saudis have long chased this jet as an Iran hedge, but DC has dragged its feet over Yemen/Khashoggi optics, Israel’s need to preserve its own regional edge, and fears the plane’s secret tech could wander. So… why now give the green light? It looks a lot like an attempt to mollify Riyadh after DC declined to intervene against the Houthis.
🇨🇳 CHINA — Get a grip.
Beijing has reportedly asked Iran to rein in its Yemen-based Houthi allies, in response to a request by Saudi Arabia. (Reuters)
Comment: While Beijing might privately enjoy seeing its US rival bogged down in Iran, this contagion to the other side of the peninsula now expands the Middle Eastern supply risk to ~half of all China’s crude imports. As for the Saudis, it’s evidence they’re shopping mediators amid a realisation the US won’t (or can’t?) get involved in Yemen. And as for the US? Wall Street royalty (JPMorgan) just generated some buzz with its latest blunt oil memo, warning “we simply don’t know how to model the endgame.”
🇯🇵 JAPAN — Back to 1995?
The Bank of Japan bumped its benchmark rate up to a generational high of 1.25% earlier today (Friday), in a widely anticipated move to head off inflation and stop the yen from sliding further. And yet… the yen lost another ~0.5%! (Bloomberg $)
Comment: Here’s how to square that circle: the rate rise was already priced in by this point. Rather, what surprised markets was the BoJ’s two dissents, and the related inference that there may not be any more hikes on the horizon. We recently explored the role of US Treasury Secretary Bessent in all this. Meanwhile, PM Takaichi just kept her main market-facing ministers in place amid her first cabinet reshuffle, in a show of confidence to investors.
🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA — Take those glasses off.
Officials are mulling a ban on smart recording glasses in government workplaces, citing privacy and national security concerns. (Guardian)
Comment: Coming after last year’s big social media age limits, Australia keeps volunteering as the rich, middle-power democracy to set tech rules. This latest one won’t stop a hostile intel service, and seems aimed more at casual / incidental risks. Plus the limited scope (government buildings) hints at an attempt to set the direction without picking another Meta fight.
🇹🇱 TIMOR LESTE — Wait for sunrise.
Dili has pushed back the production timeline for its flagship Greater Sunrise gas project by another two years, now to 2034. (The Star)
Comment: Southeast Asia’s poorest state has lost a generation stuck in talks — first in maritime border negotiations with Australia (which famously got caught spying), and now with Australia’s Woodside Energy over whether to pipe the gas Down Under or build a costly plant in Timor. It’s an example of the sheer technical, financial, and political friction smaller states can face between wanting speed versus wanting control.
🇪🇬 EGYPT — Rage through cartoons.
A Facebook page inspired by the US cartoon SpongeBob SquarePants has racked up nearly two million followers for its satirical depiction of life in modern Egypt. The cartoons, generated with AI, poke fun at the high cost of living, intractable traffic, and even President al-Sisi’s corruption. (BBC)
Comment: Government mouthpieces have gone into overdrive to denounce the parody as an anti-government plot, but take it as a reminder that absent other pressure valves, it’ll end up with your face on the body of Mr Krabs.
🇺🇳 UNITED NATIONS — War crimes.
A UN Human Rights Council-appointed panel has found “reasonable grounds” to believe the US has committed war crimes in Iran, citing airstrikes on an elementary school in Minab, and a sports complex in Lamerd. DC has rejected the report and its HRC parent body as “spouting unserious nonsense”, arguing the only war criminal here is Iran. (UN)
Extra Intrigue
Some weekend reads from Team Intrigue…
Tech: Scammers are putting AI songs on your favourite band’s Spotify page.
Sports: Dominicans supply US baseball teams with endless talent, though it turns out rule-skirting and exploitation are also part of the equation.
Science: We need more studies on the neurological effects of short-form video consumption, but in the meantime the evidence we do have is worrying.
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Drug of the day
Rate our photo editing skills.
We’re not ones to judge, but if you have to use pingers, wouldn’t you want ones *without* a brutal dictator’s face on them? Apparently not.
Last week, Libyan authorities seized a shipment of 100,000 ecstasy pills hidden in a cargo van, but when they took a closer look, they realised the drugs were stamped with the face of late Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi.
Okay… but why is he on ecstasy pills? Part of the answer is simply that ecstasy, a common party drug, is often sold with bright colours and fun shapes, including the Netflix logo, US President Trump, or even Kim Jong Un. The novelty is both a marketing angle and a way to differentiate your product on the market.
The second part of the answer is that the pills were smuggled in from Europe to be sold in Libya and North Africa, where Gaddafi — ousted and killed by NATO-backed forces during the 2011 Libyan civil war — is remembered by his supporters as a key promoter of pan-Africanism, and by critics as a brutal authoritarian.
Friday quiz
A 16th-century Aztec history manuscript — the Codex Azcatitlan — is back in Mexico on loan from France for the first time since 1840. So here’s an Aztec-themed quiz.