Today’s briefing:
— The geopolitics of the World Cup!
— Three intriguing overtakes
— And the world’s most peaceful nation is…
Your Insider’s briefing:
— The geopolitics of the World Cup!
— Three intriguing overtakes
— And the world’s most peaceful nation is…
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Our esteemed Insiders already know I'm frothing (technical term) for the World Cup. My first real World Cup memory is France '98, sneaking out of bed on school nights in the wee hours in Australia to watch full games on mute. I didn’t need sound to admire Gabriel Batistuta's flowing locks!
And despite FIFA's general incompetence and corruption, they've nailed the opener: Mexico v South Africa, two of the World Cuppiest teams, kicking off in ~7 hours at Mexico City's Estadio Azteca, maybe the World Cuppiest stadium there is.
So to celebrate, we're running our own little game — a World Cup prediction competition. Correctly pick the winner, the biggest disappointment, the golden boot and more, and you could win prizes including a full free year of Intrigue Insiders!
So go here, make your picks, then sit back and enjoy one of the few things folks from all four corners of the world have in common.
And if you're not a football (soccer) fan, this quick video gives you a one-sentence rundown on every team so you can hold your own down the pub for the next month.
P.S. I got carried away with the football fever, and forgot to introduce today's briefing which is on… well would you look at that, the World Cup!
 | Co-Founder John Fowler |
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Number of the day
14%
That’s how much a war over Taiwan would shrink Germany’s economy, per Bloomberg modelling. That’s a worse hit for Germany than for Japan, or even the US and China, reflecting Germany’s high reliance on Taiwanese semiconductors and trade with China.
Game on.
The FIFA World Cup finally kicks off today (Thursday) and it’s already the most geopolitically charged tournament in recent history. That’s saying something when you recall the last two editions were hosted by Qatar (2022) and Russia (2018).
So let’s casually but rapidly and stylishly power-walk through it all, country by country.
Ready? 🎺🎺🎺 (there’s no whistle emoji). Let’s go!
🇺🇸 USA
This is a World Cup of firsts, dear Intriguer:
It’s the first co-hosted by three countries (USA, Canada, Mexico), because…
It’s also the first expanded Cup of 48 (not 32) teams playing 104 games, and…
It’s the first time a host has started a war with a contender just before kickoff.
This lil’ cocktail of firsts has created more problems than you could jam into LA’s 70k-capacity SoFi stadium (see below), but there’s more:
Hotel bookings across Canada and Mexico are tracking higher than in all but one US city (SF), amid reports of fans flinching at higher US prices and tougher US borders.
And sure, DC waived a $15k visa bond for five qualifying African nations, but fans from dozens of other countries still face a blanket ban. It’s not just fans, either: Iraqi star striker Aymen Hussein got a seven-hour border grilling, the team’s photographer got rejected on vetting concerns, and a Somali ref got booted too — possibly because his name matched a sanctioned Al-Shabaab figure. The guy returned home to a hero’s welcome.
🇮🇷 Iran
Through some pretty heavy FIFA intervention, DC eventually agreed to issue visas for Iran’s team on the proviso players fly back to their Mexico base the same day of each match. But Iran is protesting the US withholding visas for 15 team officials (Rubio has flagged IRGC ties), and Iran also blames the US for Iran’s ticket allocation getting revoked!
But lest you think it’s all one-way, anti-regime dissidents are also peeved at FIFA for banning Iran’s pre-regime flag as a political symbol! The same flag made a Met Gala cameo in dissident solidarity, but the Iranian team later touched down in Tijuana with a lapel statement of its own: ‘168’, for the 168 killed in the early war’s US strike on a school.
Meanwhile, we know what you’re wondering, and the answer is yes: if the US finishes 2nd in Group D, and Iran comes 2nd in Group G, they’d play each other on July 3 in Texas. It’s statistically improbable, but would be only their third World Cup matchup in history (and the way our world is going, somehow feels inevitable?).
🇲🇽 Mexico
Security is always tight around events like the World Cup, but it raced back up Mexico’s priority list after the notorious New Generation Jalisco Cartel rampaged through host city Guadalajara in retaliation for February’s government raid that killed its boss, El Mencho.
Things have since stabilised, but President Sheinbaum isn’t taking any chances, deploying ~15,000 extra security personnel in hopes it’ll reassure tourists. Oh, and on a lighter note, she also walked back plans to cut short the school year by six weeks to ease congestion, after heavy criticism from parents! Families in Mexico consistently rank education #1.
🇨🇳 China
Leaving aside the national trauma of soccer giant Italy somehow failing to make the World Cup for the third straight time, there’s also demographic giants India and China: India has never qualified (it withdrew in 1950), and China missed its chance at only a 2nd showing after an agonising 1-0 qualifier against Indonesia.
We write often about Xi’s big ‘Make China Great Again’ vision for 2050, but he’s actually highlighted soccer as part of that dream via his famous “three wishes”: to qualify, host, and eventually win a World Cup.
Why? C’mon, the guy is allowed to like soccer, but it’s also a useful social and economic tool, plus a huge boost to his legitimacy if he can deliver: China’s fans are famously passionate yet frustrated. You can see that in the memes, with folks now cheering instead for China’s World Cup ref, Ma ‘Card Master’ Ning (so-named for his love of red cards).
🇮🇶 Iraq
Let’s maybe end on a hopeful note giving strong Little Miss Sunshine energy (if the VW Kombi were an armoured convoy and the children’s beauty pageant was a World Cup).
Underdog Iraq almost missed out because, when the Iran war broke out next door, flights got grounded and the team couldn’t make a crucial qualifier against Bolivia in Mexico! So with a postponement off the table, the players did a brutal 15-hour road trip to Jordan where FIFA then chartered them a private jet! Iraq eventually scraped through, 2-1.
So if Hollywood is any guide, then sure, Iraq might not lift the trophy in July, but damn it — they made it to the starting line. And sometimes that’s the real victory.
Intrigue’s Take
While we’re out here channelling nostalgic Hollywood energy, forgive us when we venture that this also feels a bit like Jeff Goldblum’s line from Jurassic Park… nature football finds a way: even with a full-blown host-participant war, corrupt governing body, narco-blockades, and weird pricing, the underdogs still get their redemptive road-trip, and the rest of us get our four-yearly reminder of what this beautiful, stupid game is really about…
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Intrigue’s Take
While we’re out here channelling nostalgic Hollywood energy, forgive us when we venture that this also feels a bit like Jeff Goldblum’s line from Jurassic Park… nature football finds a way: even with a full-blown host-participant war, corrupt governing body, narco-blockades, and weird pricing, the underdogs still get their redemptive road-trip, and the rest of us get our four-yearly reminder of what this beautiful, stupid game is really about.
In an age of fragmentation and distrust, we’re now somehow putting on the most global World Cup ever: 48 teams, three host countries, fans from every corner. The beautiful game keeps forcing friends and frenemies alike out onto that same pitch.
But if we must (and we literally must), allow us three humble geopolitical observations:
First, this entire ‘United 2026’ tournament was born in early 2017, right as President Trump was kicking off his first Build the Wall presidency. And now — eight years, countless crises, and needless grievances later — these three neighbours are somehow still co-hosting the world’s biggest sporting event, even as the US president threatens he might also tear up their world’s-biggest free trade area (by GDP). Maybe it’s a reminder that sport can help keep the flame of regional cooperation alive?
Second, while this tournament is poorer (in every sense) for China’s absence, that same absence is maybe also a reminder that the beautiful game is gloriously resistant to top-down engineering — no amount of state power can guarantee a ticket, and any team can go ahead and dream: the Caribbean’s Curaçao has beaten Iceland’s previous record to now become the smallest nation to ever qualify (pop. 185k), alongside other 2026 debutants like Cape Verde (pop 525k), Jordan, and Uzbekistan.
And third, for all its flaws, football still offers something our modern world desperately needs: shared rituals, local pride, a dream for kids to chase, and even just something for strangers to cheer together over a foreign beer or the back fence.
So maybe in 2026, travelling across continents or getting up at 3am to watch 22 people chase a ball feels like a small but stubborn act of optimism. And lordy, don’t we need that?
Darnit, who’s cutting onions in here.
Sound even smarter:
Morocco, Portugal, and Spain will co-host the next World Cup in 2030, before handing the reins to Saudi Arabia for 2034.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN — Hormuz closed (again).
Answering the latest US strikes, plus President Trump’s claims the US has been secretly escorting oil out to market, Iran has now announced the full closure of Hormuz again. Meanwhile, India has confirmed the death of three nationals aboard a tanker hit by US strikes on Monday — the US argues the tanker had tried to break the US blockade. (Reuters)
🇨🇦 CANADA — Let it lapse.
President Trump has warned he’s “not looking to renew” the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA), which hits a key renegotiation deadline on 1 July. (CBC)
Comment: Warnings of any imminent collapse of the world’s biggest FTA (by GDP) will naturally send shivers down the spines of countless US, Canadian, and Mexican businesses. But those same shared shivers should probably serve as a reminder that this is also a classic Trumpian negotiation tactic — for all its flaws, the end of the USMCA would be devastating to the US itself. More talks are scheduled for next week, and even if those fail, the July deadline most likely extends the status quo while annual reviews continue for another decade.
🇹🇿 TANZANIA — Let’s do a deal lah.
Singapore’s mostly-ceremonial president (Shanmugaratnam) just used his city’s first state-level visit to Tanzania to sign new deals on double taxation, carbon credits, skills training, and trade facilitation. (AA)
Comment: What’s Singapore want with Tanzania, you might wonder? Amid the US-China rivalry back home, Singapore has quietly hustled for new growth corridors farther afield, and Tanzania also happens to be home to the HQ for the 8-country East African Community bloc, which has been hinting at a free trade pact.
🇧🇷 BRAZIL — Drop it low.
The key Bovespa stock index out of Sao Paulo just dropped to its lowest levels since January, sliding ~7% in the last month alone. (Investing.com)
Comment: Markets are likely pricing in a) four more years of Lula (seen as less business-friendly than his lagging October rival), and b) robust data out of the US, hinting at higher — and lower-risk — yields up north.
🇨🇳 CHINA — Japan-maxxing.
The Times (of the Financial variety) have declared the Japanification of China’s bond market is complete now that its entire yield curve is below 2% (including for ultra-long holdouts). (FT $)
Comment: Translation? This tends to reflect a deeper structural and sentiment slump across property, debt, demographics, and consumption. It arguably confirms what we (per Richard Koo) have long viewed as a classic ‘balance-sheet recession’ — folks using any breathing room to pay off existing debt rather than borrow to fuel the next stage of growth. It all makes Beijing’s stimulus efforts just that much harder.
🇪🇺 EUROPEAN UNION — Digital pact with Korea.
Korea’s President Lee and the EU’s António Costa just used the 11th EU-South Korea summit in Brussels to sign a landmark new digital trade agreement. It basically extends their 2011 FTA into the digital realm, delivering smoother cross-border data, valid electronic contracts, and clearer rules for both sides. (EEAS)
Comment: The EU scores a win by exporting its high-standards (privacy, consumer protections) to a major Asian economy, while South Korea gets to hedge against US-China rivalry and lock in its status as a trusted EU partner in the region. PS — while we’re in Europe, a heads-up the ECB is widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate hike today (Thursday) amid energy price spikes and inflation risks, its first increase in years.
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Mythos and legends.
Anthropic has released its new scaled-down ‘Fable 5’ Mythos AI model after first deeming the advanced version too dangerous for the general public. The Fable 5 comes with guardrails around sensitive topics like cybersecurity. (TechCrunch)
Comment: Cue the jokes about the CEO of Oreos or whatever finally releasing a new scaled-down flavour because the earlier flavour was just *too good*. A more interesting trend might be the data out of Citi and elsewhere suggesting China’s trailing-edge AI models are (say) 85% as good as the US frontier, but 95% cheaper — if that performance is good enough for most, it risks upending AI’s cost curve.
Extra Intrigue
Meanwhile, in other worlds…
Energy: Solar just overtook coal in US power generation for the first calendar month in history.
Entertainment: YouTube just overtook Netflix in average daily viewership, raking up 99 minutes a day compared to 93 minutes over at Netflix.
Medicine: A Harvard-based US-Australian geneticist just announced the first human trial of a treatment that could reverse ageing-related organ deterioration.
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Index of the day
The world’s most peaceful country (again). Guess where? Pic courtesy of its tourism body.
Just when you thought Iceland couldn’t get any more peaceful, it somehow just got 2% more peaceful — at least that’s according to the Global Peace Index, which the Icelanders (NATO’s only member without a standing military) have now topped for the 19th year!
They pipped New Zealand, Switzerland, Slovenia (a first-timer), and Ireland to round out the top five, in a list that reads like Abba’s farewell tour or something.
But with overall global peacefulness actually declining for the 12th straight year amid more active conflicts than at any time since WWII, what’s the secret sauce for these here peaceniks? Geography seems to help — they all give that 'far from chaos’ vibe. Plus anyone who’s witnessed the famous All Blacks in action will have concluded the Kiwis must work through their aggression via the rugby pitch.
Dig deeper, though, and you’ll find the leaders are mostly smaller, high-trust democracies with low corruption, decent neighbours, and an enviable quality of life. And not wanting to crash the party here, but flip those metrics and guess who came last? Putin’s Russia again. As for the US — it comes in at #134, behind China at #118.
Today’s poll
Do you think President Xi will get his three wishes?
Have a prediction for the World Cup winner? Let us know here!
Thursday’s poll: What do you think governments should prioritise first to tackle youth disillusionment?
[🕳️ We’d love you to join our group chat — become an Intrigue Insider today!]
📈 Economic reform (65%)
✊ Political reform (33%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (2%)
Your two cents:
📈 R.L: “It's the economy, stupid.”
✊ Kevin M: “Only with political reform can realistic economic reform occur. The deck is stacked in favor of those in power and their friends... not the people.”
✍️ L.U.F: “Educational reform. Back to basics.”
✍️ A.W: “How about we start by actually asking the youth?”