Today’s briefing:
— We answer your OpenAI-spy questions
— Ukraine’s latest betrayal
— Guess who loves Intrigue
Your Insider’s briefing:
— We answer your OpenAI-spy questions
— Ukraine’s latest betrayal
— Guess who loves Intrigue
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. If you’ve read any of John le Carré’s spy novels, you’ll already know that “spying is waiting”.
But courtesy of this wild new charge against an OpenAI engineer, we can now confidently add that maybe spying is also wrapping a listening device in triple-ply Charmin then plugging it directly into Sam Altman’s boardroom TV.
It all raises sooooo many questions, but lucky for you, we’ve got some answers.
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Quote of the day
“More than a middle power, we are powers in the middle.”
That’s what India’s foreign minister (Jaishankar) told a Bloomberg forum in Delhi, arguing “if you are the most populous country in the world, you have a GDP of $4 trillion, give or take, and you have a lot of growth ahead of you, staring you in the face, then the middle power somehow seems to be limiting itself by that definition."
Spy me a river.
We’re guilty of loving many things here at Intrigue HQ: bad puns, youth lingo used just slightly incorrectly, and, of course, a good spy story.
So when we read that the folks over at OpenAI had caught an employee planting a bug in their offices, our spidey senses started tingling.
Here’s what you need to know.
Last Friday, the FBI arrested Abdulrahman Alfozan for planting a small listening device in an executive conference room at the company’s San Francisco HQ.
OpenAI says it found the bug — wrapped in toilet paper and plugged into a wall-mounted TV’s USB port — during a routine sweep on 30 September. They then contacted the FBI, which is now feeling pretty confident it caught the right guy:
A tiny hidden camera caught Alfozan peeking to check behind the TV
OpenAI security found another backup bug in Alfozan’s duffle bag
Alfozan used an internal AI tool to ask about OpenAI’s “meeting rooms, meeting-room capacities and calendars, and locations of ‘leadership and exec’ and external partner meetings”, and
Someone used an AI account belonging to Alfozan’s wife for help in building, customising, and installing a continuous audio recorder.
We’re no detectives here but asking OpenAI for help to bug OpenAI, and getting caught with a back-up bug in your duffle bag left at OpenAI, is just bad spying.
But with those key facts established, here are your juiciest questions via the Intrigue group-chat (become an Insider and join the chat today!), starting with…
Who was this guy spying for?
There’s no official word out of the DOJ, but here are the two most realistic theories:
Theory 1: Alfozan was spying for — or planning to sell secrets to — a rival firm, or even his own VC firm back home (see below). No geopolitics, just pure, undiluted, I-Want-a-Range-Rover capitalism.
It’s more common than you think: to paraphrase Christ himself, let he who has never yeeted corporate secrets cast the first stone — literally just yesterday a court forced OpenAI to pinky-promise it won’t use trade secrets allegedly stolen from Apple!
But given Alfozan’s elite education and tech career (plus potential links to Saudi Arabia’s billionaire Alfozan family), he could probably already afford a Range Rover.
Theory 2: Alfozan was spying for a foreign power. Any capital could theoretically be the client here, but c’mon, Fiji’s AI strategy isn’t that ambitious. And there is data for some countries to suggest a correlation between place of birth and beneficiary.
So a fair bit of suspicion naturally falls on Saudi Arabia, and that’s before you see…
Alfozan is listed as a partner at the Saudi VC investment firm, Raed. And okay, VC firms are like podcasts these days (anyone with a fleece vest and laptop can start one) but this firm lists a Saudi prince (Khalid Bin Bader) as a fellow partner, appointing him the very same month as Alfozan (Feb 2025).
And okay, Saudi princes are also like podcasts these days (there are literally ~15,000 of them), but this prince is the son of Bader bin Saud, who’s rotated through senior Saudi intel and interior ministry roles. Plus the firm itself takes investment from the kingdom’s vast buckets of cash. So nothing conclusive, but this firm is well-placed to understand (if not serve) Saudi state priorities. And…
There’s precedent, whether you want to look at the sympathetic employee at Twitter caught selling dissident user data to the kingdom in 2019, or the 2018 operation to hack Jeff Bezos’s phone.
Alfozan also curiously bought — just before his arrest — a one-way ticket to Saudi Arabia for him and his family departing 12 October. Though a sudden exit plan could potentially align with either the corporate or foreign espionage theory.
Anyway, while there’s no hard evidence linking this guy to a direct Saudi plot, there are enough details to raise our eyebrows a few millimetres. So then…
What was this guy trying to steal?
If your mind immediately leaps to sci-fi tropes, lower those expectations Milhouse. OpenAI has already flagged there’s no evidence of the suspect “inappropriately accessing or exfiltrating model weights, source code, or customer data”.
That — plus the boardroom target — suggests he was after something lower-tech, but potentially much juicier: strategic intelligence. This could be anything, like…
Internal product roadmaps and launch timelines
High-stakes plans around acquisitions, partnerships, and IPOs, and
Debates around the White House, international strategy, regulatory policy, and safety guardrails.
A rival firm would value that intel, but our sense is a foreign state would value it more, and would have both a higher risk tolerance and operational capacity to get it. Particularly a state like Saudi Arabia already pouring squillions into its Vision 2030, desperate not to get eclipsed by the rival Emiratis who’ve already locked in a massive Stargate deal with OpenAI. In fact, the Saudi IT minister was just at OpenAI’s California HQ last month pitching his kingdom to Sam Altman himself. So…
If this guy was a spy, why did he suck so bad?
We’ve already touched on how bad this op was, but here’s another example: why would you ‘disguise’ your bug in white toilet paper against a black TV?
Now again, we don’t want to burst your Hollywood bubble here, but sloppy tradecraft doesn’t disprove foreign state involvement. In fact, sloppy tradecraft can be a state feature! Rather than send your own full-time intelligence officer to dangle into the distant corporate boardroom through the roof — Tom-style — it’s often easier to just activate ‘assets of convenience’, which might include insiders with great access.
But these handler-asset relationships can be tricky: first, there’s how you ‘motivate’ the insider. The standard menu is MICE: money (Range Rover), ideology (do it for the kingdom), coercion (we’ll jail your family back home), or ego (the crown prince is so impressed and wants to meet you). It could be a mix.
Then second, there’s how you structure the op: sure, you might want to improve your cut-out’s chances of success by training them, but that risks leaving breadcrumbs for rivals to trace the op back to your capital. So intel agencies will often just make clear what they want, then leave the how to the asset. The result might be plausible deniability, but also cartoonishly amateur-hour efforts.
That Twitter insider we mentioned above? Used his own login!
Or the kingdom’s brutal murder of US-based dissident Jamal Khashoggi? Left enough clues for someone to make an entire feature-length documentary!
So while we await further evidence on whether Alfozan was an eager freelance patriot trying to impress a prince, or a wildly overambitious VC partner trying to bring home the ultimate cheat-code, America’s frontier AI labs might want to start checking behind their boardroom TV for a guy with a roll of triple-ply Charmin.
Intrigue’s Take
Some of the spiciest clues for us are right there in the unsealed criminal complaint:
First, the…
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Intrigue’s Take
Some of the spiciest clues for us are right there in the unsealed criminal complaint:
First, the initial charge: for now the DoJ is only hitting Alfozan with a single federal count of illegal wiretapping (a maximum of five years in the slammer) rather than (say) economic espionage. But this doesn’t mean the Feds think he was just a random freelancer.
To the contrary, wiretapping is often just the easiest charge to file up front, allowing the FBI to arrest him pre-flight, seize his kit, and hold him in custody while they dig deeper. To clear the higher evidentiary hurdles of the Economic Espionage Act, you often need to decrypt comms, trace payouts, and flip accomplices. That takes months. Depending what (if anything) you find, you might then upgrade the charges later. That’s standard for natsec cases. Speaking of which…
Second, look who’s actually prosecuting this case. It’s the National Security, Cyber & Special Prosecutions Section, in coordination with the DoJ’s National Security Division. Again, not conclusive, but you don’t ordinarily roll out your heavy natsec artillery for a run-of-the-mill corporate theft or prank.
But then pivoting from the clues to the broader lessons, three stand out:
First, it’s a stark example of the insider dilemma which (weirdly) Alfozan himself once tweeted about. DC already banned foreigners from accessing an advanced Anthropic model earlier this year, but it cost the firm market share. Others will now call for tighter vetting of AI workers, but that risks severing the global talent pipeline that fuelled America’s AI leadership in the first place.
Second, we’re curious whether this rocks US-Saudi relations, which of course depends on the findings. But history suggests the relationship has already survived much worse, whether the horrible murder of Khashoggi, or even 9/11 (15 of the 19 were Saudi). Yet if this all passes without meaningful fallout, there’s the risk that…
Third, these kinds of AI-lab espionage shenanigans will only get worse. Ultimately espionage is a bit like passing gas: everyone does it, and nobody admits it, even if some rip it less gracefully than others. But given the economic and geopolitical stakes attached to AI, technical espionage really now feels inevitable. The Manhattan Project was so thoroughly penetrated by Soviet spies — whether theoretical physicists like Klaus Fuchs or teenage prodigies like Ted Hall — that Moscow pretty much had the blueprints before the dust had even settled at Alamogordo.
The reality is that when a tech has the potential to alter the global balance of power, the hunt always moves faster than any security teams running defence. That’s not to say the free world shouldn’t try to defend. It clearly should. Rather, it’s to caution we shouldn’t be too surprised or demoralised when others sneak a bite.
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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯, 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘮𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘦𝘹𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘦𝘳 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘭𝘶𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬𝘴 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘰𝘭𝘷𝘦𝘥. 𝘋𝘐𝘛 𝘈𝘨𝘛𝘦𝘤𝘩 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘧𝘪𝘭𝘦𝘥 𝘢 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘮 𝘊 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘚𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘌𝘹𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘪𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘯𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘢 𝘤𝘰𝘱𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘤𝘩 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘣𝘦 𝘰𝘣𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦: https://bit.ly/4bzuWCi
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇺🇦 UKRAINE — Starlink speed bump.
Starlink services are now reportedly operational again after a sudden 160 kmh (100mph) speed cap briefly disrupted Ukraine’s interceptor drone missions, potentially costing civilian lives. Elon Musk says the relevant Starshield variant is ultimately controlled by DC, not SpaceX. (Kyiv Independent)
Comment: It seems President Trump has (again) hobbled Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, whether to i) force Ukraine (rather than its attacker) to the negotiating table, ii) punish Zelensky for not doing as he’s told, or iii) play to Trump’s midterms strategy of blaming Ukraine (rather than Russia or Iran) for today’s record fuel prices. Whatever the reason, Kyiv should take it as yet another wake-up call for how heavily dependent its air defence still remains on the shifting whims of the US and its tech titans.
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Inflation uptick.
The latest CPI print shows US consumer prices accelerating by 3.7% (yoy) in September, with price pressures also broadening. It’s driven in part by spiking gasoline costs amid the Iran war. (Reuters)
Comment: Three weeks out from midterms already revolving around affordability, this also raises the chance of another hike at the Fed’s 27-28 Oct meeting, though the Fed officially targets the *PCE* index, which weights energy and shelter much lighter than the more famous CPI. That might give Warsh cover to hold rates steady until after the election, though keep in mind these CPI numbers have landed right after September’s meh jobs numbers, leaving Warsh with few good options either way.
🇧🇮 BURUNDI — Don’t mind if we do.
Burundi has, along with 14 other nations (🇬🇭🇳🇬🇿🇲🇯🇵🇯🇴🇰🇼🇳🇵🇲🇩🇺🇦🇧🇷🇩🇴🇺🇾🇩🇪🇮🇪), won a seat on the UN’s Human Rights Council, unopposed. (AP)
Comment: We highlight Burundi because it’s got the worst human rights record of the bunch, whether scoring 14/100 (“Not Free”) in the Freedom House rankings, or having the cohort’s only active UN Special Rapporteur mandate (enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings). But it won a seat — and will milk that domestically and abroad — because nobody else threw their hat in the ring. Keep that in mind when reflecting on the state of the UN today: to the extent it sucks, it’s often because *we all* suck.
🇮🇷 IRAN — Tweet trouble.
A court has handed a death sentence to 23-year-old accounting student Najmeh Amini for “blasphemy” over a social media post. (Guardian)
Comment: Meanwhile, the Saudis just quietly overturned their own death sentence for a Sri Lankan migrant worker over a Facebook post. Beyond the obvious obscenity of hanging someone for a tweet, there’s the bleak regional paradox of regimes now chasing futuristic tech (whether AI or nuclear) while channelling so much old-school paranoia.
🇨🇴 COLOMBIA — Move those there.
In a scoop partly denied by the US embassy in Panama, The New York Times says the US is sending 600 troops to Panama, Colombia, and Honduras, purportedly to train and conduct exercises with local forces. (NYT $)
Comment: We say “purportedly” because while it’s all framed as Trump’s muscle-heavy approach to the cartels, it also neatly aligns with Trump’s broader Donroe Doctrine of reviving US preeminence across the continent.
🇦🇷 ARGENTINA — Falklands friction.
London has urged Interpol to reject Argentina’s “politically motivated” arrest warrants targeting executives tied to oil projects near the Falklands. (MercoPress)
Comment: London is hoping Interpol recognises these escalations for what Argentines themselves are describing to local pollsters: a bit of Milei theatre to save his approvals and continue his historic economic reforms.
🇸🇬 SINGAPORE — Hazy threats.
The city-state is weighing action under its own transboundary haze laws as Indonesian forest fires tank regional air quality. (Free Malaysia Today)
Comment: The 2014 statute theoretically gives Singapore’s courts the power to fine foreign firms (not states) if their smoke hits the island. But actually enforcing this requires corporate asset data and concession maps that Jakarta generally declines to share on sovereignty grounds. Singapore’s mere mention of the law sends the message it’s unhappy.
Extra Intrigue
Meanwhile, in other worlds…
🏗️ Infrastructure: Unnamed investors from the US, China, India, Turkey, the Netherlands, and South Korea have apparently shown interest in southern Peru’s planned new $844M port project.
🕵️ Espionage: French outlets are reporting past mysterious cases of ‘Islamabad syndrome’ afflicting DGSE intelligence officers stationed in Pakistan.
🌜 Space: China-based scientists have analysed lunar soil samples to solve the decades-old mystery of why the Moon’s two halves look so different — turns out it was ancient magma surges sloshing unevenly under Earth’s gravitational pull.
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TV of the day
Pic courtesy of Netflix
If your Netflix algorithm looks anything like ours, you’ll already know Season 4 of The Diplomat drops today, which allows us to flex share a real career highlight:
A couple seasons back, folks kept asking us the same question: is this show realistic? So we offered our own humble answer:
“We’d say it’s more authentic than realistic. Ie, the relationships, tensions, and pressures of diplomatic life are all there, even if the screenwriters have dialled the details all the way up to 11. Trust us when we say that if the show was technically ‘accurate’, it’d be a snooze-fest and not getting a third season.”
We were then delighted to get an email right back from the show’s creator herself, Debora Cahn, confirming she and the writers’ room are big fans of Intrigue! 😍
So congrats to Debora and the team on making it to Season 4! And to everyone else, you can help Intrigue grow by casually slipping into conversation that yes, we’re the same daily geopolitics briefing read by the creator and writers of The Diplomat.
Today’s poll
Who do you think was behind the OpenAI espionage case?
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think the free world should use Arctic shipping routes?
🚢 Yes, options bring strength (56%)
🚫 No, it undermines unity against Russia's war (42%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (2%)
Your two cents:
🚢 T.H: “Using the Arctic passage reinforces the precepts of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and freedom of navigation in international waters, much as passage through the South China Sea and other international waters works to normalise international agreements for ocean transits.”
🚫 E.K.M: “Using the Arctic also incentivises further climate inaction on the grounds that this new trade route is the only way out of our predicament.”
✍️ L.Z: “It's less a question of ‘should’ and more a reality of ‘will have to’. Once one country does (like South Korea), everyone else in the free world will have to cooperate on it together. The other options are a futile crackdown that leaks, or to be left out while others cooperate.”