Today’s briefing:
— Why Trump is releasing Putin’s diesel
— How to get a free honeymoon in Croatia
— Why this fish looks like a diplomat
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Why Trump is releasing Putin’s diesel
— How to get a free honeymoon in Croatia
— Why this fish looks like a diplomat
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. There’s a classic old proverb that if it’s stupid and it works, it’s not stupid.
The Seventy Maxims (a satirical military manual from sci-fi lore) counters that if it’s stupid and it works, it’s still stupid and you’re lucky.
But what, dear Intriguer, if something is stupid, doesn’t work, costs a fortune, and leaves you lonelier? Well (ahem) let’s explore DC’s latest Russian diesel manoeuvres and find out.
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
$154
That’s how much a barrel of dated Brent crude (i.e. physical crude ready for delivery) cost from early October, its priciest since 1991. JPMorgan’s latest oil desk research now warns that “October is beginning to look like April”, as shipping pushes fuel costs higher.
Big deal
President Trump just tweeted there's now an "immediate energy ceasefire" between Moscow and Kyiv, after yet another Putin phone call over the weekend saw Trump ease US sanctions to allow Russian diesel back out into world markets, all in hopes of curbing pump prices.
Lots to chew on there, so let's snap off a chunk via the four biggest challenges to Trump's big new deal, starting with...
🇺🇦 Ukraine didn't know about it
The US president's ceasefire announcement insisted "both parties have agreed!", even though it was all apparently news to Ukraine’s Zelensky. Still, Zelensky is clearly used to Ukraine (rather than its invader) copping blame as the obstacle to peace, and he responded the usual way: we'll comply if Putin does.
So okay... what has Putin said? Nothing, beyond then hitting Ukraine's CHP-5 power plant in Kharkiv, plus flattening a grocery store (at least three dead, dozens injured). For his part, Zelensky hasn't hit Putin's energy assets since Trump's tweet, pivoting to data centres instead (frying three major Yandex hubs in four days).
Anyway, it seems Putin is ignoring (like he did last month) President Trump’s latest surprise "energy ceasefire". But speaking of the man in the Kremlin...
🇷🇺 Putin's diesel promise is tiny
Trump's shock deal to allow Russian diesel came with some splashy numbers, like 4.8M metric tons with an immediate hit of 300k. But these sorts of announcements must be banking on nobody firing up the ol' Google and twigging that a 300k release only supplies the US for a grand total of... 13 hours?
The whole package — spread over six months — would only get the US through another week or so. That's why the initial tweet triggered a ~4% drop in diesel futures, before mostly evaporating once traders actually crunched the numbers.
And yet, even at these low numbers...
🛢️ Putin might struggle to deliver
Ukraine has already knocked out a third of Russia’s refining capacity (including another hit right after Friday’s sanction relief), so Putin has now had to…
a) ban diesel exports since July
b) impose daily purchase caps
c) lower Russia's quality standards, and even...
d) start importing diesel from Belarus and elsewhere.
So while Russia is still able to cover its domestic diesel needs for now, all the refinery damage and supply pressure will curb how much surplus Putin can actually release.
And yet, even if this whole pledge is thinner than a late-stage contestant on Alone...
🇺🇸 The deal shreds US cred
It's barely 24 days since President Trump signed the bipartisan bill threatening crippling tariffs on anyone (China and India) financing Putin's wars via energy purchases. And yet here we are, a week before that new law even enters force, and DC is already carving out an exemption!
It's not just a general hit to DC's brand, but a specific hit to its bargaining power: whether friend or foe, folks take each ultimatum less seriously with each new TACO.
So then, if this deal is so flawed, why even do it?
Each sitting US president has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms. So Trump was already facing an uphill battle before his administration oversaw gasoline going above $4, diesel above $6, and mortgages above 7%. He's now got the lowest pre-midterm approvals in (eg) WSJ polling history, back to 1990.
So that's realistically where this deal comes in: trying to reframe US domestic gas inflation as Ukraine's fault. The trouble is, Ukraine's Zelensky now enjoys better US polling than Trump himself, so it's hard to see how dunking on the guy helps.
Meanwhile, why would Putin do this deal? It's obvious, but we'll spell it out anyway: without making a single real concession, Putin now gets US sanctions relief, another US-Ukraine wedge, plus another round of the "it's Ukraine's fault" agit-prop, not to mention a critical pressure valve for Putin’s own dwindling storage tanks (when they reach capacity, Putin has to curb production).
Sweet deal.
Intrigue’s Take
So in the end, there’s a good chance we’re just getting a dose of political theatre here. But don’t take our word for it; just track the ultimate, impartial fact check:…
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Intrigue’s Take
So in the end, there’s a good chance we’re just getting a dose of political theatre here. But don’t take our word for it; just track the ultimate, impartial fact check: pump prices.
Then okay, if this is indeed just political theatre, it’s hardly sending the kind of message any turtlenecked off-Broadway director might’ve actually intended.
First, pulling such a spectacular U-turn in return for a day of “we’re on it” headlines, plus a splash of gas that won’t even last until next Tuesday? That doesn’t exactly project electoral confidence.
Second, if that’s how far a president is willing to go in hopes of saving a few seats, it shines a pretty clear spotlight on America’s Achilles Heel: US resolve is absolutely unbreakable* (*subject to current diesel prices). Rivals no longer need to out-gun the US, so much as just stir enough commodity volatility ahead of a US election cycle.
Third, this latest theatre might just further erode US leverage. Cutting off Ukraine’s security never ended the war in 24 hours like Trump pledged, but it did sideline the US while others (including Ukraine’s own defence-tech base) filled the gaps. And now (per reports) threatening to even stop selling arms to Ukraine likewise seems less likely to push this conflict in DC’s preferred direction (wherever that is), and more likely to just starve America’s own defence industrial base, both in the short-term (cancelled contracts) and long (vindicating any European hedge).
Then fourth, there’s the risk that a fellow democracy again ignoring Trump’s latest demand to swap out its wartime leader simply exposes the limits of a second-term US presidency plunging towards 30% approvals and a hostile House.
Sound even smarter:
The Financial Times has reported European defence firms are ramping up personal security for their executives amid intel agency warnings that the Kremlin is stepping up its assassinations.
The volume of missing Gulf diesel is ~three times the volume of missing Russian diesel. We wrote about the impending ‘diesel disaster’ here.
Today’s briefing is sponsored by:
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇸🇦 SAUDI ARABIA — Deadly airport attack.
The latest Houthi strikes left another 13 dead and 300 injured at Riyadh’s international airport over the weekend, with the Iran-aligned, Yemen-based group now warning passengers against using Saudi airports. (BBC)
Comment: These attacks, the kingdom’s deadliest since the start of the Iran war, are a direct retaliation for the major Saudi-backed offensive that just recaptured key positions along the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait. It’s a big hit to the Saudi “safe for business” narrative, with costs that are no longer theoretical — the CEOs of Exxon, Total, Shell, Chevron, and BP all just quietly dropped off this week’s World Petroleum Council congress, which kicked off yesterday (Sunday) — only BP seems to have cited “travel disruption”.
🇬🇷 GREECE — Ambassador out?
The White House is reportedly weighing whether to fire the US ambassador to Greece, aka Trump Jr’s former fiancé, Kimberly Guilfoyle, amid reports of misconduct like “selling” access to top Trump officials. (WSJ $)
Comment: While political patronage for non-sensitive posts might be standard DC practice, scandals in strategic NATO buffer states carry real geopolitical costs. The main advantage of political appointees is often their direct presidential access, but clearly not if it gets hocked out — or even seen to be hocked out — for private gain, while host governments get stuck trying to navigate the line between US policy and ambassadorial ego.
🇵🇰 PAKISTAN — Government suspended.
President Zardari has declared a state of emergency — and suspended the regional government — in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, citing the ruling PTI party’s inability to crack down on Islamist groups. (DW)
Comment: In case your spidey senses just went off, they’re right: the opposition PTI has been organising a march on the Pakistani capital to call for the release of party leader, former PM, and cricket star Imran Khan. So this looks a lot like pre-emptive machinations to sideline the PTI.
🇨🇳 CHINA — Crisis averted?
Beijing has agreed to voluntarily cap its own surging hybrid auto exports to the EU, accepting a new four-year tariff-rate quota framework from December. (Bloomberg $)
Comment: It’s an olive branch aimed at heading off a broader trade war with Europe, whose own auto-industry is getting hammered by China’s increasingly high-quality, low-cost output (after decades of industrial support). It comes after China’s hybrid exports to Europe exploded 13-fold through a loophole in the EU’s 2024 tariffs on EVs. Likewise, there’s now a risk this new deal won’t simply reduce China’s exports into Europe, so much as just shift the final assembly into the BYD, Chery, and Great Wall plants now getting built across Europe. Or to put it another way, there’s a chance the competitive pressure on Europe’s automakers won’t go away, but just move inside the fence. Still, even this deal will have surprised most onlookers expecting the more divided EU would (again) blink first.
🇮🇩 INDONESIA — Smelter melter.
Indonesia is mulling a freeze on new smelters producing semi-finished nickel, in hopes of curbing overproduction and safeguarding prices. (Antara)
Comment: Indonesia scored a win when — years ago — it banned raw nickel exports, forcing buyers (mostly in China) to build local refining capacity instead. The issue is many just invested the bare minimum to clear that new regulatory hurdle, creating a glut of cheap, partially processed metal still getting finalised elsewhere (mostly in China). So this is a follow-up attempt to force those foreign miners to invest even higher up the tech scale. Take it as an example of how resource nationalism tends not to be a binary switch, and more a constant dance.
🇵🇦 PANAMA — Strong quake.
Authorities have declared a state of emergency after a 7.7 earthquake and 200 aftershocks hit southern Panama. Initial reports suggest that while the quake has damaged hundreds of homes, schools, and historic sites, there’ve been no lives lost. (AP)
Comment: Shout-out to Panama’s relatively strict building codes. Its key infrastructure assets — particularly the Canal (~5% of global maritime trade) and main airport — have also managed to continue operations. While we’re on natural disasters, check out some of the wild footage of flooding across Las Vegas, after Hurricane Rachel dumped record-breaking rainfall across the region.
🇿🇦 SOUTH AFRICA — Peace Prize winner.
President Ramaphosa has hailed 85-year-old jurist Navi Pillay’s Nobel Peace Prize win, commending her “belief that the world can and should be a better place.” The US — long a critic of her UN inquiry accusing Israel of war crimes in Gaza — has responded by levelling further sanctions against her former employer, the International Criminal Court. (CNN)
Comment: Pillay’s work has spanned the Rwanda tribunal, the International Court of Justice, the International Criminal Court, plus a term as the UN’s High Commissioner for Human Rights. She’s now the fifth South African to win a Nobel Peace Prize, joining 1960’s Albert Luthuli (for his non-violent struggle against apartheid), 1984’s Desmond Tutu (for his unifying non-violent role), and 1993’s joint Nelson Mandela + FW de Klerk (for their work laying the foundation for a democratic South Africa).
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly round-up of the world’s lighter news
Croatia (yes, the whole nation) has invited a US couple to celebrate their honeymoon after hundreds of Croatian football fans photobombed their wedding photos.
A UK city council has mistakenly sold off an entire primary school and is now trying to get it back.
Are you happy to see us, or is that 10 birds in your pants? It’s the latter for one smuggler caught at a Miami airport.
Polish beavers have chewed through a sign warning the public about… beavers.
US officials now measure a natural disaster’s severity using the number of Waffle Houses still open.
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Fish of the day
The mondeli bureau. Credits: American Museum of Natural History.
Did you know fishermen in DR Congo have named a fish after the modern diplomat? Well, kinda.
Meet ‘mondeli bureau’, a tiny, sun-starved, eyeless fish whose name roughly translates to ‘pasty office-worker’, in a nod to local perceptions of a computer-bound Westerner!
It’s native to the mouth of the world’s deepest river (the Congo), where parts plunge more than 200m (700ft), hence the mondeli’s weird looks.
But like most diplomats, this deep-water fish has somehow evolved to survive under crushing pressure and navigate total darkness, all while getting thrashed by the current… events.
Anyway since you asked (didn’t you?), our other favourite animal names include…
The tasselled wobbegong
The pink fairy armadillo
The satanic leaf-tailed gecko, and our personal fave…
The Turdus maximus.
Today’s poll
Do you think President Trump will be able to meaningfully curb US diesel prices before the midterms?
Last week’s poll: Do you think our spies should be better paid?
💸 Yes, why leave them vulnerable to rivals? (72%)
🚫 No, our best spies never do it for the money (25%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
💸 R.N: “If you want the best, you have to pay the best. There are no volunteers in the spy business.”
🚫 P.A: “It's about the mission, the pride of doing a thing that is bigger than yourself. Pay should reflect what you are worth, but it's not the main driver for being there in the first place.”
✍️ M.L.J: “Don't get into a bidding war with countries run by oligarchs...”
✍️ J.G: “As chief of the BND you get a pretty good paycheck, not to mention a nice retirement plan. I think you can argue that corruption is more at play here rather than financial issues.”
PS - shout-out to ‘RH’ in the group-chat for today’s Fuel’s errand subject 😂. Become an Insider and join the banter today!