🌍 Will Bibi survive?

Your Insider’s briefing:
— Will Bibi survive?
— Anthropic finally files
— Creative marketing in the Baltics

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25,000

That’s how many civil servant jobs the Dutch government aims to cut in an AI-led efficiency drive, now targeting $3.9B in annual savings by 2035.

Welcome to Intrigue’s big election week: day 2. 

Now it’s Israel’s turn, as folks today (Tuesday) cast their first votes since the Hamas October 7th attacks and ensuing wars across Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.

First, the incumbent: Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu has been centre-stage for decades in a journey that’s taken him from elite Sayeret Matkal commando and MIT grad to BCG consultant and even Israel’s 1980s-era ambassador to the UN.

But the Bibi now seeking a seventh term as PM is also the guy with…

So how’s he in contention? His base still sees Bibi as the only guy to finish the fight with foes still seeking Israel’s demise: Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran.

Plus to survive, Bibi has often just kept that base loyal amid Israel’s divided opposition.

But you know what? Israel’s opposition now seems a little more united thanks to…

Second, the challenger: with semi-thanks to Netanyahu himself and the anyone but Bibi mood he’s inspired, opposition has now coalesced around Gadi Eisenkot.

A former military chief-of-staff, Eisenkot sits atop a bloc of four centrist parties and can match Bibi’s natsec cred: he lost his own son and nephew in Gaza, while Bibi’s son faced criticism for spending the war poolside in Miami.

Eisenkot was also in Israel’s initial wartime security cabinet, and has broadly backed Israel’s actions across Gaza, Lebanon (Hezbollah), and Iran. So he’s no dove.

In fact, he’s widely seen as the 2008 architect of Israel’s controversial Dahiyeh doctrine, named after the Hezbollah stronghold where he advocated for “disproportionate force” against civilian areas used in attacks.

Eisenkot eventually left Bibi’s cabinet over a lack of hostage-dealing and post-war strategy, going on to warn that regime change in Iran is “not an achievable goal”.

But really, his pitch comes down to “I’m as tough as Bibi, just without the courtroom drama, hard-right allies, or October 7th hubris.”

And while polls suggest Eisenkot’s opposition might end up with ~55 seats (versus ~50 for Bibi’s coalition), the general would still fall short of a magic 61 majority.

So that means the keys to the PM’s office will once again lie in the hands of…

Third, the kingmakers.

With most of Israel’s smaller parties already picking a side, the winner might need…

Still with us?

And of course, everything’s re-negotiable once you’ve actually won seats and have leverage: that in-fighting has toppled more than one Israeli coalition government.

So then there’s…

Which gets us to…

Fourth, the strategies.

In a hung parliament, the incumbent (Bibi) keeps the upper hand, either to negotiate a coalition or continue as caretaker PM, even until the next elections!

That’s presumably why Bibi is trying to make cooperation with the Arab-majority parties politically toxic (even though Bibi himself first broke that taboo in 2021), warning an Arab-backed government would usher in a Palestinian state.

Of course, that line also just risks firing up Arab-Israeli turnout even more, but either way, it puts hawkish Eisenkot in a brutal bind: partner with Arab-Israelis to oust Bibi but face a conservative revolt, or refuse but risk the gridlock that still leaves Bibi at the helm.

So how’s Eisenkot responding? By keeping his options open: first, declaring “I will sit with anyone who believes … that Israel is a Jewish and democratic state.”

And second, by appealing to a broader Jewish base with pledges to end ultra-orthodox exemptions, and investigate October 7th (something Bibi has avoided).

All that to say… maybe the road back to the PM’s office doesn’t run through the front-runners anymore.

The major Israeli networks will start publishing exit polls as booths close from 10pm Tuesday local time, with preliminary tallies emerging Wednesday morning.

Don’t shoot the messenger, but here’s the common saying among Western diplomats who’ve served a tour in Israel…

Don’t shoot the messenger, but here’s the common saying among Western diplomats who’ve served a tour in Israel: your first year you feel for the Israelis, your second year you feel for the Palestinians, and your third? You feel like you want to go home.

We wouldn’t ordinarily dedicate an edition to the latest elections in a country smaller than New Jersey, with fewer people than Belgium, and with zero real leverage over any maritime choke point or supply chain bottleneck. But like the rest of the world, for good or ill, we’re captivated by Israel’s story.

Part of that attention stems from its unique standing as the world’s sole Jewish state, plus the grim allegations it now faces of genocide — particularly stinging given the term itself was first coined by Polish-Jewish lawyer Raphael Lemkin to describe the systematic destruction of Jewish people during WWII.

But another part of the attention must surely lie in the plot-twist of Israel’s own two million Arab citizens now exercising their democratic rights to potentially determine who leads that world’s only Jewish state. And they’re doing so among Arab neighbours who explicitly enshrine Arab identity in their own constitutions: the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Syrian Arab Republic, the Hashemite (an Arab dynasty) Kingdom of Jordan, and the Republic of Lebanon (which emerged from civil war with a new preamble enshrining Lebanon’s Arab status).

That’s a tension still rattling modern Israel, so (and this wouldn’t be Intrigue without a film reference) consider Spielberg’s Munich about the Mossad operatives tracking down those who massacred Israeli athletes. Look beyond Eric Bana’s brooding and you see each operative grappling with his own — and Israel’s — identity in a different way. As the raw demands of national security clash against the foundational values of a democratic home, the crew’s bombmaker (played by Mathieu Kassovitz) implores: “we’re supposed to be righteous.”

Likewise, this wouldn’t be Intrigue without a random reference to history, which in Israel’s case variously goes back to the Bronze Age where a theme — woven through the Torah itself — soon emerged: any core existential threat has usually come from Israel’s own internal division, readily exploited by external foes. That same division was on display (via Israel’s judicial reform debate) when Hamas struck.

And then to conclude… an Intrigue’s Take wouldn’t be complete without a call-back right to where we first kicked this off: via another saying often whispered among diplomats: Israel wants to be a) Jewish, b) democratic, and c) in secure control of the ancient Holy Land — but it only gets to pick two.

Bibi has built a legacy leaning more into options a and c, while Eisenkot is insisting Israel can reprioritise b without surrendering the rest. Let’s see what the Israelis say.

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If you’re a Baltic state smaller than West Virginia and with fewer folks than a decent-sized suburb, how do you cut through the roar of global tourism marketing?

Sure, you could play it safe with some yawn-inducing drone shots panning over cobblestone streets while some kind of nouveau-Enya echoes serenely through the valleys. Maybe throw some whale sounds in there too, because why not.

But this, dear Intriguer, is a region that, long ago, learned to lean into its idiosyncrasies as the exact reason to visit, whether Sweden’s respect for personal space, Finland’s quirky supermarkets, or Norway’s grey winters.

Now enter Estonia, with its new viral Born from Culture video that blends a traditional Soveldaja dance ensemble with… an unflinching, heavy-bass trap beat courtesy of American rapper Future?

We know this odd blend seems lab-grown to thrive on TikTok or something but the result somehow slaps! So bravo to the campaign and its tagline: “Times can change. The Estonian spirit does not. Some things just run in our blood.”

Yesterday’s poll: With Bolsonaro now contesting the result, do you think there'll be post-election unrest in Brazil?

🔥 Yes, tensions are sky high (37%)
😎 No, Lula's win was too big (62%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (1%)

Your two cents:

PS — shout-out to ‘JS’ in the group-chat for today’s To Bibi or not to Bibi header 😄. Become an Insider and join the community today!