Today’s briefing:
— Nvidia’s honey-trap headache
— Eisenkot’s electoral math problem
— Norway’s high-design clapback
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Nvidia’s honey-trap headache
— Eisenkot’s electoral math problem
— Norway’s high-design clapback
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. A friend once got posted to a foreign capital so infamous for its extreme FIS (foreign intelligence service) threat, the embassy briefing basically boiled down to every room is wired, every driver is listening, and every suitor is a honeytrap.
Undeterred, my (single) friend then spent the first week strolling around their new and thoroughly-compromised apartment loudly fretting “gosh, I sure hope the local spooks don’t find out my fatal weakness for blondes.”
It’s a classic joke in diplomacy, but with tech moguls now wielding more geopolitical leverage than most ministers, perhaps someone should pass them the memo? Case in point, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, whose affair is now geopolitical.
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
9 hours
That’s how long a cruise ship pianist was treading water after somehow falling overboard, before two fishermen rescued him 32km (20mi) off California. El Niño’s unusually high water temperatures might’ve helped him survive.
Now that’s customer service
That’s Nvidia’s Jensen Huang with Megaspeed’s Alice Huang, the alleged spy. This pic is from her socials.
If you're just catching your breath, Jensen Huang, the leather-clad tycoon leading the world's second-most valuable company (Nvidia) at the heart of humanity's most valuable tech (AI / chips), just apologised for having an affair.
Now, many tycoons and world leaders might just call this kind of tryst “Tuesday”.
But the twist here is Jensen's alleged paramour is Alice Huang (no relation), a formerly Singapore-based tech exec that US intelligence claims has actually been working for China's lead intelligence agency, the Ministry of State Security (MSS).
And the potential implications here are massive, starting with...
What'd he tell her?
After initially spinning Jensen's relationship as nothing "unusual or unexpected", Nvidia has now quickly pivoted to minimising the fallout, with the board insisting it has "no reason to believe that either national security or Nvidia secrets were compromised". It's now kicked off an independent investigation anyway.
But that framing really misrepresents (unwittingly or not) how espionage works: sure, spooks would love a smoking gun or secret blueprint, but today's intel is more often about assembling a mosaic of micro-insights, like Jensen’s take on...
how this White House makes its decisions
how Nvidia's own chip bottlenecks will hit which clients (countries)
how aggressively Nvidia vets its end-users
how it regards any competitors like China’s Huawei, plus
how it assesses its own supply vulnerabilities in Taiwan, including the prospects for relief via TSMC's new chip plants in Arizona.
And the truth is we may never know if Jensen’s pillow talk covered any of this stuff, let alone whether Alice overheard it or was left alone with any of his devices. Ditto, we may never know...
How'd she influence him?
Consider this: why was US intelligence tracking Alice in the first place?
She was working for Megaspeed, an obscure Singaporean venture with roots in a China-based mobile gaming company that suddenly went on a $4.8B shopping spree for the world’s most advanced chips, often via affiliates across Southeast Asia.
And sure enough, US spooks now say Megaspeed was less an overnight success, and more like an MSS front (possibly financed by China’s Party-adjacent and Pentagon-banned tech giant Alibaba) to help China bypass DC's controls!
So you’ve got to ask, did Megaspeed get this priority service thanks to Alice's access to Jensen? Did she nudge him into soft-vetting all those affiliates? Is that why Nvidia repeatedly vouched for Megaspeed?
Also keep in mind it was Jensen (in constant contact with the US president) pushing the White House to ease US chip controls in ways he argued were...
good for America (keeping China hooked on US tech rather than nudging it to compete), but also conveniently...
great for Nvidia (given China has been Nvidia's second-top market).
So now we also (if not instead) have to ask whether Jensen was likewise pushing US policy in this looser direction because it was good for his relationship with Alice.
Meanwhile DC, Wall Street, and Silicon Valley also now have to wonder...
Can Nvidia thrive without Huang?
The board says Huang is still the boss while its independent investigation plays out, and there’s no obvious succession plan to trigger, but the company’s probe is already getting straw-manned above as "did he leak a secret" rather than "did his tryst warp the flow of information and influence".
So unless any spicy wiretaps get leaked, there's a good chance this probe will manage rather than resolve the scandal. There's just too much at stake, whether for...
the board to ditch its superstar salesman, diplomat, and architect, or for...
DC to risk crippling the main firm really driving America's AI lead over China.
That latter point might also explain DC's response to date, first sitting on this information for a year, then leaking it to the Times:
it might be hawkish insiders leaking to box in a lenient White House, or
the White House itself leaking to whip Jensen into line without frying Nvidia.
Of course, Jensen himself may well decide he needs to take a break to repair his marriage. There's also the chance this quickly ends in divorce which, absent any pre-nup, could see his wife (Lori) dump her ~$70B post-settlement stake in Nvidia, cratering the firm's market value; though even her huge hypothetical stake is less than a third the value of the share-buyback Nvidia already started in September.
Either way, our sense is sure, Huang's departure would indeed hurt the firm, but the more pertinent question might be the impact of a damaged Huang now staying put, particularly after last week's midterms Blue Wave: can he still open the same doors? Charm the same audiences? Withstand a class-action? Maintain the firm’s greatness?
And will markets and clients still see the same Jensen fairy dust everywhere, even after this display of duplicity and poor judgment? Our gut is Jensen could survive this, but the mere fact it’s up for debate might be enough to do material damage.
That's all just inside Nvidia, btw. You've also got to zoom out and consider...
Does this hit the US-China tech race?
If you thought US chip controls were aggressive before, watch where they go next.
The whole status quo has hinged on US-aligned chipmakers competently or at least earnestly vetting their end-users to avoid futuristic tech super-charging an autocratic rival. But as far back as May, a short-seller was flagging Jensen’s Alice ties as a reason the boom wouldn’t last. As for the vetting? It took the Times conducting the ultimate counter-intelligence move of *checks notes* showing up at one shell company’s registered address to realise the company didn’t even exist!
And sure enough, with that vetting faith now getting tested, watch Washington's hawks push for tighter restrictions and oversight, not just to close the Southeast Asia loophole (new shells buying then re-routing billions in chips to China), but maybe also to re-think DC's entire relationship with Silicon Valley, like perhaps...
treating key firms more like defence contractors (replete with counter-intel briefings, disclosure rules, and employee guardrails), and
reining in the Valley's self-appointed role as shadow US diplomats.
But this all potentially goes even bigger, sweet Intriguer: one thing Jensen's affair has in common with Elon's Starlink-throttling and even Dario's collapsed Pentagon negotiations is the extent to which a healthy democracy wants (or can afford) to leave so much power in the hands of unelected nerds, even if they wear cool leather jackets (Jensen) or raise reasonable concerns about ethical AI (Dario).
Intrigue’s Take
This whole sorry saga now reveals four intriguing insights about the current state of espionage, including…
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Intrigue’s Take
This whole sorry saga now reveals four intriguing insights about the current state of espionage, including…
First, spying has clearly shifted out of embassy backrooms and into corporate C-suites. This has long been the case (just last month we re-hashed the 1980s-era reports of Air France helping the DGSE spy on US tech execs), but the stakes are now much higher, which is why the tactics are also getting sharper. Look at Putin’s continued efforts to assassinate European defence execs, for example.
Second, China’s MSS is clearly getting better. Its strength used to lie in sheer scale, but here it’s proven sharp at not just identifying a single point of failure with control over product allocation, let alone input into White House strategy, but then executing against Jensen’s particular vice. Yes, the “let’s honey-trap key tycoons” may be kinda obvious, but pulling it off isn’t.
Third, there’s also the emerging role of proxy hubs like Singapore, the UAE, and elsewhere. They’ve long thrived by playing both sides (even if framed as a neutral player), taking Western tech and Eastern capital while quietly helping facilitate grey-market transactions. But as DC’s hawks ponder this latest case, we wonder the extent to which these hubs will be forced into tougher choices, like submit to closer US oversight or risk getting frozen out. The counter-risk is this merely pushes key nodes closer to autocratic rivals.
Then fourth, there’s also the reminder how little about espionage has changed. Even when you’re dealing with the most advanced tech we humans have ever conceived, sure you can firewall your servers and encrypt your comms all you like, but it turns out the biggest vulnerability is still us humble human beings, liable to poor decisions (like Binance’s insider last week) or temptation via our most primal urges. That’s because even this generation’s most impressive tech minds still put their pants on (or take them off?) one leg at a time.
Sound even smarter:
The news has sent Nvidia’s pre-market shares down ~5%, or $225B. By comparison, last year’s DeepSeek scare triggered a ~17% crash.
Responding to the scandal, President Trump has told reporters Huang is an “honourable guy” who has done an “incredible job for our country.”
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇹🇷 TURKEY — COP kicks off.
The UN’s COP31 climate summit kicks off today (Monday), hosted by Turkey while Australia chairs the negotiations, right as research warns that a breach of our 1.5°C global warming limit is now both imminent and unavoidable. (Guardian)
Comment: The two priorities are theoretically around finance (helping poorer countries mitigate and adapt) and fossil fuels (building on COP28’s pledge to “transition away”), but petrostate resistance, US absence, and major emitter insouciance (China, India) makes any major breakthrough highly unlikely. You can see that in the guest-list, which suggests key world leaders are mostly steering clear.
🇵🇱 POLAND — The politics of terror.
Prime Minister Tusk has declared two days of mourning after Saturday’s mass shooting in Kraków left seven dead (including the attacker) and 15 injured. Authorities say the 24-year-old shooter, who also killed three relatives at his home, might’ve been motivated by far-right ideology. (NBC)
Comment: The centrist Tusk has pleaded for “politicians of all stripes, do not exploit this tragedy”, but Poland’s rarity of mass shootings plus its pre-existing constitutional showdown mean a plea might not be enough. His rival and Poland’s nationalist president (Nawrocki) controls one of the security agencies now investigating the attack, and will presumably block any attempt to expand domestic surveillance let alone toughen gun control.
🇮🇱 ISRAEL — Eisenkot takes first crack.
President Herzog has offered opposition leader and former military chief Gadi Eisenkot the first chance to form a new coalition government. Eisenkot now has ~six weeks to make the legislative math work before Herzog passes the baton to someone else (presumably Netanyahu). (F24)
Comment: Getting Herzog’s nod was the easy part. Eisenkot’s path to power now runs through a razor-thin and deeply contradictory mix: he could ally with the Arab-led parties but that’d risk losing the support of Lieberman’s secular nationalists. Alternatively, Eisenkot could try the ultra-Orthodox parties, but they’d force him to renege on his pledge to ditch an unpopular military exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jewish citizens.
🇳🇿 NEW ZEALAND — Beached as bro.
Disillusioned voters have delivered an incredibly close election outcome in New Zealand, with Saturday’s results still too close to call. (RNZ)
Comment: New Zealand’s electoral system is designed to spread more power, but this result still reflects a splintering trend we’ve seen elsewhere, with voters punishing the main parties in favour of smaller, newer players who could emerge as kingmakers.
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Post-loss shakeup.
Following last week’s big midterms loss, President Trump has swapped his disciplinarian chief of staff Susie Wiles for hardline immigration architect Stephen Miller. The president also insists he was “just kidding” when he announced UFC boss Dana White as his next pick for press secretary — ie, not confusing the cage-fight promoter for a former Pentagon spokesperson with the same name. (The Hill)
Comment: It’s easy to over-think these appointments, particularly for a free-wheeling POTUS like Trump, but this Wiles-Miller swap suggests the president has little appetite for post-midterm soul-searching or bipartisan compromise, instead circling the wagons with his most hawkish loyalists ahead of two years of aggressive House oversight. We also wonder if Miller’s promotion hints at less of a quest for big diplomatic prizes farther afield, and something more in line with Miller’s view that “national security begins at home” (eg organised crime and trafficking in the Americas).
đź‡đź‡ą HAITI — Gang leader dead.
Prime Minister Fils-Aime has announced the drone-strike death of gang leader Mathias Saintil in a law enforcement operation on Friday. (Al Jazeera)
Comment: There’s no indication El Salvador’s troops were involved (President Bukele would’ve tweeted if so). Nor is there any indication this might turn the tide of Haiti’s crippling gang violence. It is, however, a major narrative win, suggesting that with international assistance, Haiti *can* land blows against the gangs. And it’s really this narrative that shapes whether more international assistance arrives, not to mention whether more gangs express openness to some kind of political resolution.
🇬🇦 GABON — Friends with benefits.
President Xi has hosted his Gabonese counterpart (junta leader-turned-president Nguema) for a state visit, formally elevating ties to a “community with a shared future” while signing pacts across security, trade, and mining. (Reuters)
Comment: This is a textbook example of China’s pragmatic post-coup playbook in the region, letting the West freeze aid and threaten isolation while Beijing fills the void with security backing and locks down priority access to Gabon’s manganese deposits (a classic EV battery input).
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly round-up of the world’s lighter news
An Italian chef in Australia got fired for refusing to put pineapple on pizza.
Finnish scientists say a vibrating mattress can help clear the Alzheimer protein.
A Shanghai convenience store just fired two robots for lack of initiative.
UK authorities deny a helicopter pilot used his flight path to draw a phallus.
And San Francisco has had an Elizabeth Holmes lookalike meetup.
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As they say in Norway, when life gives you a crap insult, just make world-class infrastructure?
Today’s poll
Do you think Huang's affair will hurt Nvidia long-term?
Thursday’s poll: How do you think this midterms loss will shape Trump abroad?
🛫 He'll double-down abroad for his legacy (57%)
🚧 He'll get stuck in gridlock back home (39%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (3%)
Your two cents:
🛫 J.W.N: “Crippling Iran and finalising Abraham Accords 2.0 might be his only shot at some kind of a legacy.”
🚧 H.L: “Trump will be operating with a much diminished cadre of GOP enablers and his ability to project his will on the world will be correspondingly curtailed.”
✍️ T.B: “He'll be as erratic and independent as ever if not more so.”
