Today’s briefing:
— Europe’s spymaster panic
— Poland’s window mystery
— Spruce up your embassy cable
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Europe’s spymaster panic
— Poland’s window mystery
— Spruce up your embassy cable
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. There’s a prophecy attributed to 8th-century mystic Padmasambhava, that when “the iron bird flies” and “horses run on wheels”, the Tibetan people will be scattered across the earth.
And sure enough, when Mao’s trucks eventually rolled into Lhasa and PLA planes roared above the plateau, some locals saw the fulfilment of an ancient prophecy.
Hollywood likes to pretend our modern intelligence agencies work the same way, but with mysterious figures in trench coats decoding the secret prophecies over martinis. The truth is, while we do get the occasional nugget (like Putin’s entire invasion foretold), the intel reality tends to be more about collecting messy, incomplete signals of human intent, filtering out the noise and counter-intel, then distilling it all into a set of hypotheses, each neatly assigned a probability.
So keep that in mind as we explore why several European spymasters just grabbed the mic to deliver some sobering — if also splintering — warnings about Putin’s plans.
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
Number of the day
82%
That’s now China’s reported H1 share of the world’s new shipbuilding orders, almost tripling in volume (DWT) versus last year. With Hormuz and the Red Sea getting squeezed, buyers are ordering more long-haul tankers to fetch crude from elsewhere.
Putin it out there.
You know Europe's summer is officially over when the beaches turn empty and the spies grab the mic. So let's take a listen to what they're saying, starting with...
🇵🇱 Donald Tusk, prime minister of Poland
Euro-Donald made a startling appearance before his nation's Sejm on Friday, citing "very consistent and, unfortunately, convincing" intelligence that Putin plans to ✌️accidentally✌️ hit NATO's eastern members with drones and missiles.
Why? Echoing weeks of similar intel leaks, Tusk cites two Putinist aims: i) to weaken the border logistics helping Ukraine defend itself, and ii) to show that NATO's Article 5 mutual defence pledge "exists only in theory", with these ‘accidents’ “becoming an increasingly glaring illustration of NATO's helplessness".
Or to put it another way, Putin is hoping to trap NATO in a game of grey-zone chicken: by flattening (say) a Polish rail hub then calling it a GPS glitch, he offers NATO two tough options: ignore it and look weak, or trigger Article 5 and risk war.
Meanwhile, over in Paris, that same intel binder also triggered a response from...
🇫🇷 Emmanuel Macron, president of France
Unusually, Macron hauled France's 2027 presidential hopefuls and rival party chiefs into the Élysée for an emergency three-hour lé chat on Friday, with Nicolas Lerner of the DGSE (France's CIA) and Céline Berthon of the DGSI (internal security).
Macron's message in public was "the day we are attacked physically, we will not be warned", while the spymasters’ message in private reportedly flagged Putinist "state terrorism" and "hybrid war", plus a grim update on the Middle East.
But why'd Macron do all this? We explored that question in the Intrigue group-chat (become an Insider and join!) but sure, at face value, Macron was just responding to the intel. Scratch a little deeper, and he's also seemingly trying to lock the French political class onto a single threat picture before campaign season.
It worked, btw: by Saturday, the resurgent populist-right's Le Pen and Bardella had issued a statement labelling Russia's asset seizures a "hostile act", vowing Moscow would never dictate French policy, and backing Macron’s plan to harden key sites. They presumably also sense electoral risks in getting painted as Putin’s pal.
Then scratch even deeper, and sure, you might also wonder if centrist Macron is implicitly cautioning that, against this gloomy global backdrop, do French voters really want to roll the populist dice?
Anyway, while Poland and Paris sounded the alarm, we then got a timeline from...
🇨🇿 Michal Koudelka, head of Czech intelligence
Offering The Guardian a rare interview from his HQ in Prague, Koudelka added two other intriguing bits of context:
first, he fleshed out Putin's "escalate to de-escalate" logic: if the Kremlin can make the war feel like it's spilling into Europe, maybe European voters will pressure their governments to abandon Ukraine, and
second, this could all happen in "months, not years". In fact, it’s already here: "every malfunction needs to be investigated by intelligence services as a potential terror attack, and that is a good result for them."
The same Guardian interview then gave us more of a methodology update from...
🇸🇪 Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden's military intelligence
Speaking on the sidelines of a spymaster summit in Riga, Sweden's MUST chief labelled the recent discovery of a Russian drone-bomb at Germany's busy Leipzig airport as a "gamechanger" — ie, an escalation from torching paint factories to "attacks that could result in loss of life or destruction of critical infrastructure".
He also offered a blunt assessment of Putin’s occasional peace talks (has Nilsson been reading Intrigue?): the Russians “are still thinking that they could achieve their strategic objectives, so they are just playing negotiation theatre.”
So while we're in Riga (an afternoon drive from the Russian border), let's wrap with...
🇱🇻 Normunds Mežviets, head of Latvia's state security service
You might expect frontline NATO ally and former Soviet occup-ee Latvia would give the spiciest take of them all — and indeed, that's often the case. But offering The Guardian another rare chat from his own HQ, Mežviets seemed more cautious with his words, noting "it's still an open question if they have concrete plans or if it's just attempts to spread fear and uncertainty in Western society".
Or to put it another way, he's saying congrats everyone else on waking up to what we’ve warned about for years, but now let’s be careful not to over-react to grey-zone bait, which risks just running Putin's info-ops for him.
Neighbouring Estonia's foreign ministry boss (Vseviov) then gave him an amen, tweeting, "if there is reason to fear an attack, rest assured: we will make that clear. Until then, keep calm, carry on and support Ukraine."
The Estonians, keep in mind, are world-renowned for their insights into their former Soviet occupiers.
Intrigue’s Take
There are a few underlying anxieties driving Europe’s spy choir above: the first is of course Putin himself, and his catastrophic decision to launch Europe’s first major ground war since WWII.
But the second…
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Intrigue’s Take
There are a few underlying anxieties driving Europe’s spy choir above: the first is of course Putin himself, and his catastrophic decision to launch Europe’s largest war since WWII.
But the second is Europe’s own US allies, and DC’s parallel process now openly mulling the possibility of pulling nearly a third of US forces (25,000 troops) from Europe as part of a re-prioritisation towards China.
Meanwhile, a third anxiety actually bubbles up within Europe itself — a fear that when the next test comes, Europe might fail not for lack of military or economic might, but because it simply couldn’t muster a single diagnosis, let alone response.
That first anxiety above, btw, is really then stoking the second and third, but Putin is (as ever) really trying to calibrate it all so he can keep shooting at Europe without ever giving Europe the pretext to shoot back via a war he couldn’t hope to survive.
So against that backdrop, it’s not hard to see Ukraine’s own sacrifices as ultimately gifting Europe and the broader free world a rare thing: time. Sure, time to re-arm, harden its infrastructure, and reverse a decade of military underinvestment. But also time to just get a grip on what’s happening and how best to calibrate a response.
And on that front, it’s also easy to get pulled to one of the two extremes: too much cynicism, and you can waste that time-gift dismissing every warning as a mere budget bid or campaign prop until your awakening to the warning comes too late.
Too much naïveté, however, and you waste that time-gift the other way: freaking out at every grey-zone provocation, doing Putin’s scaremongering for him, and adopting his false sense of inevitability, while perhaps pushing your own leaders to just give Putin what he wants (Ukraine) in hopes he might stop (he won’t); or maybe even voting in a new government on the false promise they can magically just end it all.
The sweet spot, of course, sits in that unsexy, non-clickbaity middle: diplomats and spooks often describe this sweet-spot as being “clear-eyed”. It means recognising the threat with cold clarity, skipping the cheap panic, and putting to shrewd use the time Ukraine is now buying us all. Perhaps leave the panic to the ailing warmonger.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇺🇳 UNITED NATIONS — Look who’s in town.
The UN’s annual ‘high-level week’ is now underway in New York amid media buzz around who got US visas (Iran’s Pezeshkian) and who did not (the Palestinian Authority’s Abbas, who’ll instead appear via video again). Watch for Presidents Trump 🇺🇸, Lula 🇧🇷, Erdoğan 🇹🇷, Macron 🇫🇷, and Lee 🇰🇷 on Tuesday; Pezeshkian 🇮🇷 and Zelensky 🇺🇦 on Wednesday; Netanyahu 🇮🇱 on Thursday; then Lavrov 🇷🇺 on Saturday. Meanwhile, the latest Security Council straw poll suggests Costa Rica’s ex-veep Rebeca Grynspan might be firming up in the race for the UN’s top job, while Australia has announced it’s now running for election to the 2029-30 Security Council. (Reuters)
Comment: The year’s theme is ‘restoring trust’, but there’s not a lot any one speech or tweet can do to rebuild the kind of trust that years of unilateralism and war have now eroded. Ordinarily we insist the real action is on the sidelines, but we’re not holding our breath for Thursday’s big Xi-Trump summit (see below), plus Pezeshkian realistically doesn’t have regime authority — we’re guessing the US just granted him a visa for the “we’re not the problem” optics, rather than any new deal prospects.
🇨🇳 CHINA — Pre-summit summit.
The only appetiser for Thursday’s big Trump-Xi summit in DC, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has emerged from eight hours of talks with his Chinese counterpart at JPMorgan’s Manhattan HQ, describing their session as “very successful”. For his part, China’s He Lifeng echoed the positive-if-vague vibes, with state outlets describing the day as “constructive”. (CNBC)
Comment: The only details we have come from the US side, including proposals for a US-China AI dialogue plus a notification mechanism for security-level AI incidents. Worthwhile stuff (if China agrees), but no hint of anything more than managing — rather than resolving — their stark differences across tech, trade, Taiwan, and beyond. We’re expecting more of a truce extension, plus regular trade repackaged as ‘deals’.
🇵🇱 POLAND — Window mystery.
The head of Poland’s diplomatic-security bureau is now in critical condition after somehow falling from the third-floor window of an apartment within Poland’s broader embassy compound in the capital of Slovenia! (The Sun)
Comment: Warsaw says he was just there on leave, and before you wonder why a diplomat would use their vacation to hang out in an embassy, Polish outlets are reporting there was a party! Okay, but there are also reports he had just taken possession of a diplomatic pouch for on-forwarding, without a formal HQ assignment. So okay, this could just be a case of “oh cool party with my frolleagues, and yep happy to take this package back to HQ on Monday”. But when you’ve got a sensitive office-holder taking possession of a sensitive unauthorised package and then falling out a window in Putin-era Europe? Tongues will wag.
🇬🇱 GREENLAND — Ice-breaker.
Ahead of his first meeting with President Trump, the UK’s Andy Burnham has publicly congratulated Denmark and the US on what the two sides are billing as a landmark agreement on Greenland — the deal apparently recognises both Danish sovereignty and Greenlandic self-determination, but expands the US military footprint on the strategic island, and bars any rival bases or “sensitive investments” without US say-so. (BBC)
Comment: This deal seems to tick the key boxes, just without the ritual humiliation of repeatedly threatening an ally — we promise there is a parallel universe in which this could’ve all been achieved without torching decades of allied goodwill. Meanwhile, Burnham piping up is a neat way to project High North relevance (and perhaps declare ‘case closed’ on an unedifying allied spat) before his first Trump chat in NYC.
🇭🇹 HAITI — Suspects extradited.
The US has now taken custody of eighteen suspects — mostly Colombian mercenaries — in the 2021 assassination of President Moïse. The rest of the alleged network — Haitian plotters, Florida fixers, mystery financiers — remains a mix of fugitives, corpses, and pending cases. (Independent)
Comment: It was really the assassination of Moïse that plunged Haiti into a chaos that persists today, with armed gangs still filling the state’s void. So there’s something poetic about finally bringing the hired goons to justice ahead of Haiti’s first presidential elections in a decade this December, though even US convictions won’t resurrect a Haitian state.
🇸🇦 SAUDI ARABIA — Capital hit.
In a major escalation, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis have claimed drone and missile strikes on key sites across both the Saudi capital of Riyadh (airport + depot) and the Red Sea port of Yanbu (energy assets). (DW)
Comment: We’ve already explored the way this Houthi momentum exposes the limits of US protection and even Saudi deterrence. But smoke over Riyadh feels like something else entirely: perhaps eroding — even slightly — the Saudi royal family’s sense of invincibility?
🇷🇺 RUSSIA — Super-predictable supermajority.
You’re not going to believe this, but initial results suggest Putin’s United Russia party has retained its supermajority in the Duma. Ukraine dampened any regime celebrations by again hitting the oil refinery that supplies nearly half of Moscow’s refined fuel. (Le Monde)
Comment: As we flagged on Friday, the question was never whether Putin would retain his supermajority (any rivals are all dead, de-listed, or driven abroad), but what he’s planning to do now that his rubber-stamp legislature is locked in through the late 2020s. We (together with Europe’s spymasters) already explored that question above.
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly round-up of the world’s lighter news
Members of Ireland’s whistleblower-protection unit just blew the whistle.
Korean authorities have fined a Seoul restaurant for using ants as a garnish.
An elite Aussie athlete has apologised for crapping herself in China.
A British zoo has blamed computers for its new “child predator tour” campaign.
And a Minnesota drug dealer has been issuing loyalty punch cards to customers.
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Dictionary of the day
America’s oldest dictionary just got a 1,400-word glow-up, and wouldn’t you know it, but ‘glow-up’ itself is actually one of Merriam-Webster’s official new words!
Most of the newbies — think looksmaxxing, trash panda, and cuffing season — are likewise just tapping internet slang for a cynical sugar-hit of relevance and sales.
But a few new words could be worthy of an embassy cable (we dare you), like…
Parasocial: a one-sided emotional bond with someone who doesn’t even know you exist. Popularised via the K-pop world, it might now be an apt label for any middle power allies stuck feverishly analysing 2am tweets from DC?
Mandela Effect: when a crowd shares the same false memory. Originally about Mandela’s (premature) passing, it’s now a handy diagnosis for anyone amplifying Putin-prop about ‘Istanbul peace deals’ and ‘Ukraine biolabs’.
Copium: that sweet sweet blend of ‘cope’ and opium smoked by anyone stuck in a state of denial. This is essential vocabulary for anyone analysing the latest 140-point joint declaration issued after a failed multilateral summit.
Today’s poll
How do you feel about these warnings from Europe's spymasters?
Thursday’s poll: Do you think Canada will become an EU Associate Member?
👫 Yes, they're natural partners (67%)
🛑 No, too many hurdles (32%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)
Your two cents:
👫 E.H: “They'll become something, anyway. The club of nations jilted by the US is inclusive and welcoming.”
👫 F.P: “This is like a real life version of the movie ‘Canadian Bacon’ — which every US diplomat going to a Canadian posting was required to watch (back in my time).”
🛑 C.D: “Protectionists in France and Italy will continue foot-dragging long enough for American politics to change.”
👫 S.H.R: “Australia in Eurovision not so silly now hey.”
👫 L.M: “Canadian here: it's likely; less an attraction to Europe (although that's not a bad thing) but more a repulsion from the US. I'm impressed you even got the ‘Saturday double denim’ bit in. Not many know of the Canadian Tuxedo, going back to Bing Crosby's denied entry at Hotel Vancouver for his casual wear (he was wearing Levi's jeans). So Levi's created a ‘tuxedo’ for him.” [Editor’s note: the more you know!]
PS — shout-out to the group-chat’s ‘JW’ and ‘RH’ for today’s Spy who warned me and Putin it out there headers 😄. Become an Insider and join in today!