Today’s briefing:
— Four spicy spy stories
— Why Brazilians are googling milk
— Wait, cheese-backed loans?
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Four spicy spy stories
— Why Brazilians are googling milk
— Wait, cheese-backed loans?
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. I once told you the true tale of the US diplomat who crapped his tux at the hottest diplomatic event of the year… the Marine Ball.
But another highlight of the embassy cocktail circuit is often also Halloween. Early in my career I showed up (and don’t write me angry emails, I was young, he was free) as Julian Assange — Aussie accent, slicked silver hair, manila folder marked “JUICY SECRETS”.
The best costume that night, however, belonged to a US diplomat who went full-blown Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: rocking the Iranian hardliner’s signature grin, stubble, windbreaker, and a green glow-stick cosplaying as weapons-grade uranium.
I wonder where that charming US envoy ended up, but last week we got a surprise cameo from the real Ahmadinejad at Khamenei’s funeral — it all makes the New York Times’ latest bombshell all the more delicious: did Israel's Mossad seriously recruit him?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Quote of the day
“There is a great deal of hubbub about a collective ‘middle powers’ strategy these days. At DoW, we are not concerned that this is a serious possibility. Rather, we are more concerned that a few allies and partners will think it is“
That’s part of a tweet from top Pentagon official Elbridge Colby, arguing middle powers should increase their defence industrial base, but “in ways that are collaborative with America’s rather than trying in vain to replicate or supplant it”.
It’s one thing to think this (the US clearly remains indispensable in many ways), but tweet it? Allies are clearly hustling to hedge, whether because the US has talked of yeeting allied territory, or because a middle power (Iran) is still defying the US itself.
Age of espionage.
We devoted yesterday to some of the political grandstanding on the world stage, so figured we'd devote today to some of the wild stories playing out in the shadows, like...
🇯🇵 Is Japan Russia's latest spy den?
We've long called Vienna the espionage capital of Europe, but what about Asia?
According to The New York Times, the answer could be Japan! With a lil' help from friends in Western intel, the Times notes many of the Russian spooks booted from Europe have now ended up in Tokyo posing as diplomats and/or airline employees.
The Times outs the unit (GRU's 20th), cover (✌️airline office✌️), location (22nd floor), boss (Maksin Vladimirovcich Filchenkov), and aims (source Japanese tech for Putin's war).
For comedic effect, they also include a Monty Python-esque scene with an intermediary who happily chats to the reporters and hands over poorly-redacted manifests, rather than, you know... shut the door and call a lawyer?
But the broader question... why Japan? It's got world-class tech, proximity, shipping, and weak espionage laws born out of its postwar handcuffs. But Western capitals have long also observed weak security practices: want to share some spicy intel? There are MOUs on how, but best to invite your Tokyo counterpart into your own embassy's secure area...
So Japan now recognises it needs to lift its game. You can see that in both word (the Cabinet Secretary's press conference) and deed (Japan launching its first centralised intel agency). But notwithstanding all the reported Western help, it'll take decades to catch up: even the US took 37 years to go from Maxwell Smart to Jason Bourne.
And while Japan plays catch-up, Europe is battling a slick new cyber-twist in...
🇳🇱 Are CCTV cameras our next blind spot?
We've long tracked the ways capitals ban certain CCTV brands, and now we know why: Dutch spooks just dropped a spicy report describing how Russian hackers used random security and doorbell cameras to track arms shipments into Ukraine. Satellites are fine, but they have limits on revisit time, resolution, and weather. Hack those ground cameras, however, and you get real-time eyes on exact truck models, plates, loads, and timing.
The only surprising bit here might be how easy it was: scan IPs for exposed devices, then use default passwords and outdated firmware to waltz right on in. So maybe change your passwords and update your firmware, particularly if you live along a NATO logistics route?
While Boris hacks cameras in Europe, there's some old-school smoke and mirrors in...
🇮🇱 Did Hamas pull off a long con?
History will dissect the 2023 Hamas attacks, and Israeli voters might hold Bibi accountable on 27 October. But in the meantime, Israel's Meir Amit Intel and Terrorism Information Center (a think-tank with close intel links, as if that weren’t already obvious by getting named after a former Mossad boss) recently dropped a veeeeery intriguing report.
Citing internal Hamas documents, it argues the Palestinian group used a multi-year pre-attack deception doctrine to convince Israel the group had been deterred. How? Think...
Public messaging focused on the economy and governance
Highlighting more grievances in the West Bank than Gaza
Internal compartmentalisation and misinformation to avoid leaks, and
Outward shows of restraint and de-escalation (eg, on October 5, one wing announced a border march, which another wing then publicly blocked).
But now from smoke-and-mirrors to the mother of all intel operations in...
🇮🇷 Did Mossad seriously recruit Ahmadinejad?
Building on early rumours and its own initial scoop, The New York Times just dropped a bombshell story alleging…
Mossad used the cover of environment summits in Israel-friendly nations like Hungary and Guatemala to get Iran's hardline ex-president in town as a speaker
It then approached and recruited him (including via the Mossad boss himself), and convinced him to participate in Mossad's regime-change plans for Iran, but...
After initial Israeli airstrikes killed his regime-minders and Mossad whisked him off to a safe-house in Tehran, he supposedly then got cold feet and bailed!
So many questions here, like a) why would Mossad trust a holocaust denier (and vice versa), b) why explain the whole plot to a random professor in Hungary (the conference organiser now briefing the Times), and c) if you've got the ultimate asset still stuck in Iran somewhere, why now burn him via this leak rather than try again at the next opportunity?
We've explored it in the Intrigue group-chat (become an Insider and join us!), and there are still too many unknowns to draw conclusions, but some quick observations:
Yes, we humans can cooperate with an enemy if we believe it helps thwart some bigger threat (like our own country collapsing under a rival faction…), but also…
Yes, spooks do sometimes leak failed (or fabricated) ops to sow elite paranoia and infighting, plus can even leak successful ops if they've reached expiry date.
Anyway, if true, it’s almost a neat inverse of the successful Maduro op — while that one hinged on one chopper pilot holding his nerve, this one might’ve failed on one source losing his nerve.
Intrigue’s Take
You can distil these spy stories above via the three Ds…
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Intrigue’s Take
You can distil these spy stories above via the three Ds: divide, deceive, disrupt.
On the divide front, we’ve spelled this out before, but here it is again: the fine folks at The New York Times didn’t train a crack team to infiltrate US and Israeli intelligence and extract this juicy Ahmadinejad story from some high-security vault protected by a moat filled with liquid hot magma, laser beams, and ill-tempered sea bass.
Rather, intel insiders made the decision to share it. So that begs a few questions like… why? It doesn’t make sense unless a) this Ahmadinejad op tried but failed, or b) it never even existed. Then either way, why leak it now?
The timing feels deliberate, right as US-Israeli plans crash into regime resilience. If this op is dead (or fabricated) you pivot to information ops in hopes of ratcheting up the regime paranoia, forcing the mullahs to question all loyalties, and maybe triggering the kind of purge that cracks the regime in ways Tomahawks can’t.
Then there’s deceive. Hamas might’ve shown that the old-school version still ‘works’: low-tech, high-discipline. Ditto for the Ruskies hacking random cameras (making civilians their unwitting eyes), or co-opting Japanese supply chains (hiding in plain sight).
As for disrupt? Hacking cameras, using an airline cover to do some shopping — this stuff is pretty low-cost. Enough to gum up a rival and extract an advantage for yourself, but with enough plausible deniability to avoid triggering direct escalation. Cheap and scalable.
Is that where espionage is headed in our new multipolar world?
Other spy stories we couldn’t jam in:
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Tax on, tax off.
Hours after tweeting it, President Trump has now gone back on his 20% Hormuz shipping fee, instead again threatening Iran with strikes on its bridges and power plants unless the regime returns to the negotiating table. (BBC)
Comment: We initially had angry emails insisting this was all 4D chess, but surely by this point we can all come together and acknowledge it’s looking more like drunk Jenga? This war stopped going to plan long ago, and the president is now throwing spaghetti at the wall to see what sticks.
🇨🇳 CHINA— DeepSeek IPO.
China-based AI darling DeepSeek is reportedly preparing for an IPO in mainland China as soon as this year. The firm just closed its first private round last month, and is raising cash to aggressively expand compute like its competitors. (Bloomberg $)
🇺🇦 UKRAINE — Azov today, there are no more ships.
In the last couple of weeks, Ukrainian armed forces have claimed 100+ hits on Russian shipping through the Sea of Azov (between Russia and Ukraine, exiting via Crimea). Expanding to hit oil and cargo ships, the idea is to further squeeze Putin’s oil exports and further isolate his forces on Crimea. Meanwhile, Brussels has greenlit plans for Ukraine to use EU funds to buy China-made drone components, highlighting a critical Western reliance on China’s supply chains. (Guardian)
🇱🇹 LITHUANIA — Politician’s regret?
Lithuania’s new centre-left prime minister (Sinkevicius) has now officially taken office, and is reaffirming his intention to stand behind Ukraine but seeks a reset of ties with China. (Bloomberg $)
Comment: There’s nothing surprising about a tiny Baltic state (and NATO ally) that survived decades of Soviet occupation now standing firm against Russian aggression. But the China angle is interesting — you’ll recall Lithuania stepped into the spotlight in 2021 when it allowed Taiwan to name its de facto embassy the ‘Taiwanese Representative Office’ (instead of China’s preferred ‘Taipei Economic and Cultural Office’). The move triggered swift backlash from China, and we later chatted with the then-FM about his experiences. Fast forward a few years, and Vilnius seems to have concluded a stabilisation with China is now better on balance.
🇨🇴 COLOMBIA — Inauguration drama deepens.
Colombia’s presidential transition seems to be descending into gridlock, with outgoing leftist Gustavo Petro banning the right’s incoming Abelardo de la Espriella from using military bases for his inauguration. The tough-on-crime Abelardo, hardly dubbed ‘The Tiger’ for his conciliatory vibes, is doubling down on his garrison inauguration plans as a tribute to Colombia’s armed forces. (MercoPress)
Comment: Is this a futile, toxic fight among two ideological warriors? Yes. Could it plunge Colombia into some sort of constitutional quandary? Also yes. You see, Petro insists he remains commander-in-chief until *the second* Espriella is sworn in, so any inauguration preparations technically violate the express orders of a sitting president. Our take? The Colombian people deserve better than this whole pageant.
🇸🇬 SINGAPORE — Take it back immediately.
A court has ordered US media outlet Bloomberg to pay a cool $356k in damages to two Singaporean cabinet ministers after a reporter factually cited their ritzy property transactions. While accurate, the judge found when read as a whole, the article (about mansion deals increasingly shrouded in secrecy) implied wrongdoing. (BBC)
Comment: Leaving aside the specifics of this case, it’ll still play into fears of the region’s wider trend of SLAPPs: Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation. Ie, elites weaponising vague laws to intimidate, bankrupt, or silence.
🇸🇩 SUDAN — Rebel leader sentenced to death.
A Sudanese court has sentenced to death in absentia the leader of Sudan’s notorious RSF paramilitary, known as Hemedti, over war crimes and the murder of a regional governor. It’s the first such ruling since this civil war broke out in 2023. (AJ)
Comment: It’s symbolic while he runs the other half of a civil war, but the sentence is an attempt to shape the international narrative, and imposes costs on the RSF’s foreign backers.
Extra Intrigue
What people around the world are googling:
🇧🇷 Brazilians searched for ‘milk’ after Brasilia announced plans to send over 48 tons of powdered milk to Cuba amid continued US pressure.
Folks in the 🇦🇪 UAE googled ‘US embassy’ after the American mission to Abu Dhabi suspended consular services due to the escalating conflict with Iran.
And people in 🇪🇸 Spain looked up legendary Kiwi Jurassic Park actor (and acclaimed winemaker) ‘Sam Neill’ who passed away unexpectedly on Monday.
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Bank of the day
Credits: Credem Bank.
We knew Italians were on another level when we learned they have a bank that accepts cheese as collateral.
Over the past few weeks, Europe’s media attention has focused on the effects of a suffocating heatwave threatening health, infrastructure, and agriculture. In Italy’s Emilia-Romagna region, dairy farmers are worried about spiking temperatures curbing their cows’ milk production.
Enter, Credem. Founded in 1910, the bank has been offering cheese-backed loans to local Parmigiano producers for a century, and claims never to have lost a Euro (or pre-EU lira?). Its enormous Parmigiano warehouse can store up to 500,000 wheels weighing 40kg (88 pounds) each, totalling over $300M.
Brie-lliant.
Today’s poll
Do you think Israel really recruited Ahmadinejad?
Yesterday’s poll: What type of vacationer are you?
🧗 Adventure junkie (Macron) (31%)
🧳 Endless vacation (Modi) (19%)
💆 Inner peace (Wang) (32%)
👔 What's a holiday? (Al-Zaidi) (15%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (4%)
Your two cents:
💆 W.C: “A good book, good music, great view of the ocean…”
🧗 L.E: “Right now I am deliberating between exploring northern Peru, a cultural tour of Laos, or walking in Ireland.”
✍️ C.B: “Staycay. If you don't love where you are... move.”
And one for the lols:
✍️ R.H: “Hang out with friends in Europe (Carney).”