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🌍 Five ticking clocks in the Russo-Ukraine war

🌍 Five ticking clocks in the Russo-Ukraine war

Plus: Flag of the day

January 06, 2025

IN TODAY’S EDITION

1️⃣ 5 ticking clocks in the Russo-Ukraine war

2️⃣ What a Berlin zoo does with old Christmas trees

3️⃣ Flag of the day

Hi Intriguer. I’ve been loving the claims doing the rounds lately that the mandarin word for ‘penguin’ translates literally as ‘business goose’. And yet… it turns out that’s not quite true!

But don’t be dismayed, dear Intriguer… the correct translation still comes out as the mighty amusing ‘standing goose’ or ‘tiptoe goose’. And you know what? I’ll take it.

So for today, let’s get you an intriguing update on the Russo-Ukraine war. Onwards.

PS - Ever wondered what's really driving US-China competition? Join us for a candid conversation with Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi, Ranking Member of the Select Committee on Strategic Competition Between the US and the Chinese Communist Party. It’ll be online, 10am ET on Tuesday 21 January. Register here!

THE HEADLINES

South Korean president resists arrest as warrant nears expiry.
Yoon’s security team has fortified his compound with barbed wire and buses to prevent investigators from arresting the president, who’s under investigation for his attempt to impose martial law last month. His current arrest warrant expires at midnight tonight (Monday), though authorities could seek to extend it. Check out our explainer here.

Trudeau could resign this week.
Word on the street is that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will announce his resignation this week, amid cratering public support and intense pressure from his own party. His departure would trigger an internal leadership struggle just as Donald Trump takes office.

Israel-Hamas talks continue.
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s office has denied Hamas claims that the group provided Israel with a list of 34 hostages to be released as part of a possible ceasefire deal.

Undersea cable cut near Taiwan.
Taiwanese authorities have blamed a Cameroon-flagged and China-owned ship for the severing of an undersea telecom cable last Friday. It’s just the latest cable-cutting episode involving a China-linked ship in recent weeks, after similar incidents in the Baltic.

Chile’s president visits Antarctica.
Gabriel Boric has become the second Latin American leader (after Argentina’s Javier Milei) to visit the icy continent in a year, seeking to reaffirm Chile’s own territorial claims there. Five others (Australia, China, France, Norway, and the UK) have also laid Antarctic claims, though none enjoy universal recognition. The US has three research bases there, but hasn’t made a formal claim.

TOP STORY

Five ticking clocks in the Russo-Ukraine war

Map image courtesy of Euromaidan Press

We're two weeks out from Trump 2.0's inauguration on January 20, and capitals everywhere are preparing for what that might bring (we shared special editions on some of the thinking in Taipei, Berlin, and Mexico City over the break).

But one of the biggest question marks remains Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. So let's take a quick look at five of the big ticking Russo-Ukraine clocks we'll be tracking through 2025:

⏲️ How long can Ukraine hold Russia's Kursk?

The Ukrainians surprised everyone in August by suddenly seizing a chunk of Russia (in Kursk) the size of Hong Kong. And the Ukrainians are still surprising everyone in Putin's inability to eject them months later, despite mass casualties and help from North Korea.

To boot, there are now reports (🇺🇦) Zelensky is mounting another surprise push in Kursk, presumably to maximise any leverage — and expose the limits of Putin's power — before Trump 2.0 potentially tries to force a settlement.

Either way, the move has tied up Ukrainian forces, leaving some to ask...

⏲️ How long can Ukraine hold over in its east?

While Ukraine managed to take ~1000 sq km (400 sq mi) of Russia in August, Russia only took around four times that much (~half of Puerto Rico) from Ukraine over the entire year, and still hasn’t managed to take any of the 23 key cities Ukraine held from the outset. But Putin seems to have accelerated his gains while Zelensky is struggling to stabilise the front — eg, there are damning reports of desertions among the much-lauded, French-trained 'Anne of Kyiv' brigade (named after an 11th century Kyiv princess who became queen of France).

And those continued struggles on the battlefield have contributed to...

⏲️ Changing popular sentiment

Almost three years into Putin's full attempted invasion, Ukrainians are tired. Russians are too (see below), but polling just last week suggests around 38% of Ukrainians are now open to Putin keeping some of Ukraine's land to end the war, up from just 8% in 2022. Meanwhile, 51% of Ukrainians say Ukraine shouldn't give up its land under any circumstances — that's down from 85% in 2022. Support for Zelensky is down, too.

But in parallel, a record 73% of Ukrainians now support their country re-developing nuclear weapons, which they surrendered 30 years ago in return for US-UK-French-Russian security guarantees. We're seeing that rekindled interest in nukes in multiple places, by the way, as rattled capitals everywhere revisit their own security assumptions.

Speaking of which, we're also revisiting assumptions around...

⏲️ How long can Putin’s military sustain this?

Early on in his invasion, there was a narrative that Putin could sustain his war as long as needed. But the numbers just don't back that up. Last year, for example, he lost something like 3,000 tanks in Ukraine. That's ten times what he can now produce in a year, and aerial photos of dwindling Russian storage facilities leave real doubts on whether Putin can maintain his ground attack tempo beyond 2025.

And that's prompting renewed questions around...

⏲️ How long can Russia's economy sustain this?

Few believe Putin’s official 10% inflation stats, and his eye-watering 21% interest rates aren't hosing things down as much as you'd think, but they are leaving more firms (including key defence players) teetering on the brink. Meanwhile, his ruble is facing bigger and more frequent wobbles, and his piggy bank (the National Wealth Fund) has maybe $30B in liquid assets left (not a lot). To stay afloat, that leaves Putin even more exposed to oil and gas prices, which aren't moving in his favour.

So Putin continues to hope the West’s resolve breaks before something breaks at home.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

This war isn’t looking sustainable for either side right now, so maybe that means we'll see some kind of accord emerge this year — and that's certainly something we're hearing more frequently. And yet — it's hard to see everyone agreeing on the kinds of security guarantees Ukraine really needs to stop Putin from just regrouping and attacking again. So maybe 2025 is the year we see something just snap instead.

It’s impossible to know how, but on the Moscow side for example, keep an eye out for the name ‘Elvira Nabiullina’: she's Putin's central banker, widely seen in the West (pre-invasion) as brilliant. She's pulled every trick (🇷🇺) to defray and delay the costs of Putin's war so far, which is why Putin has protected her from mounting domestic criticism to date. But Nabiullina is running out of options, and if Putin throws her under the bus (a small but rising chance), that's a pretty solid indication he’s in trouble.

Also worth noting:

Dozens of Ukraine's partners will be meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany this Thursday to discuss continued support. Zelensky continues to flag a need for more air defences, given Putin's continued attacks on Ukrainian cities.

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

🇨🇳 China: The US Treasury has announced sanctions against a China-based network company for its alleged role in a cyberattack that compromised over 250,000 devices around the world (mostly in the US). The announcement came days after the Treasury announced it had itself just been compromised by China-linked hackers.
🇸🇰 Slovakia: Prime Minister Robert Fico has now threatened to cut aid to over 130,000 Ukrainian refugees in his country after Ukraine declined to renew a deal that long saw cheap Russian gas reach Slovakia via Ukraine. Fico has also threatened to halt electricity supplies to Ukraine, prompting an offer from Poland to boost its own supplies to Ukraine to cushion any blow.
🇲🇾 Malaysia: The local environment minister has announced that tech companies should expect to pay a premium to access Malaysian energy and water resources to run data centres in the country. Foreign tech giants have announced ~$16B in new tech centres there lately, mostly in Johor state near Singapore.
🇻🇪 Venezuela: Opposition figure Edmundo González is now on an international victory tour ahead of long-time autocrat Nicolas Maduro’s inauguration for his third term this Thursday. While loyalist authorities say Maduro won, there’s overwhelming evidence González dominated last year’s Venezuelan elections.
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast: The West African nation says it’s now asked France to withdraw its 600 troops, becoming the latest in a string of former colonies across the region severing security ties with Paris. French soldiers are still stationed in nearby Djibouti and Gabon.

EXTRA INTRIGUE

🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news

International chess authorities have allowed Norwegian grandmaster Magnus Carlsen to rejoin an international tournament after relaxing a ban on jeans.
A Japanese sushi restaurant operator has paid $1.3M for a “motorbike-sized” New Year tuna that will be portioned off and eaten across the country.
Thieves in India have broken into a bank branch and stolen a passbook printer they mistook for an ATM.
Zookeepers in Berlin have given unsold Christmas trees to the elephants as a holiday treat.
And the Polish town of Międzyzdroje has broken the world record for most people taking an ice plunge consecutively.

FLAG OF THE DAY

Korean protesters can get pretty inventive: you’ll find anti-president Yoon protesters using K-Pop glow sticks and colourful accessories to draw attention to their message.

But in a confusing twist, both supporters and critics of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol have now taken to waving US insignia.

For example, the pro-president camp has adopted the star-spangled banner to claim a parallel between the legal woes of Presidents Yoon and Trump, while the anti-Yoon side has hoisted up the Virginia state flag, which features the motto Sic Semper Tyrannis (thus always to tyrants) — alluding to the eventual downfall of all autocrats.

Extra fun fact: the anti-Yoon Mayor of Gwangju claims he got his Virginia flag from the state’s Governor Glenn Youngkin himself!

DAILY POLL

Which factor do you think will buckle first?

Last month’s poll: Do you think Ukraine and Russia will renew the gas transit agreement?
(as we foreshadowed, it lapsed on New Year’s Day after Ukraine declined to renew it)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👍 Yes, pressure is mounting and the cost is significant (20%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👎 No, Ukraine holds the cards, and renewal makes no sense (66%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤷 It doesn't matter, the war will end soon (10%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

👎 W.H “The answer, today, is ‘no’. But medium and long-term, the answer is likely ‘yes’, as all parties stand to benefit.”
✍️ M.D: “Reopening the pipeline could be a negotiation point in peace talks that allows Ukraine to retain its borders. A long-term contract, with terms that void the contract if Russia takes future hostile actions against Ukraine, could be a mechanism towards sustaining a longer term peace.”

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