1ď¸âŁ 5 things from the BRICS summit | 2ď¸âŁ How Singapore cut airport wait times by 60% | 3ď¸âŁ Event of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Do you ever yearn? I yearn. And lately, Iâve yearned to coin a new acronym. Like Goldmanâs Jim OâNeil, for example, who first coined what became âBRICSâ (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) â todayâs lead, btw.
Or then thereâs Halifaxâs Peter Van Praagh, who coined âCRINKâ last year (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea). Thatâs a good one. Try saying it with me: âCRINKâ. See?
But nothing too edgy, mind you â âPIIGSâ (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) was in high rotation for a while there, but itâs now seen as so deeply not-cool, thereâve actually been full academic studies to identify who we should blame for the label (turns out it mightâve first been coined by The Wall Street Journal back in 1996).
Anyway, you mark my words, dear Intriguer. Iâm gonna coin an acronym. I yearn for it.
Ceasefire negotiators to meet again.
Hamas and Israeli representatives will meet in Doha in the coming days in an attempt to restart stalled talks and hammer out a ceasefire-hostage deal. The attendees will reportedly include Mossad head David Barnea, and the CIAâs Bill Burns.
Russia has been giving targeting data to Houthis.
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Russia has been providing the Iran-backed Houthis with Russian satellite data to help the group target Western cargo ships transiting through the Red Sea. Together with Moscowâs budding North Korea ties, itâs likely an attempt to further destabilise two regions (the Middle East and Northeast Asia) and thereby divert US attention away from its invasion of Ukraine.
Has Musk maintained secret contact with Putin?
The Wall Street Journal has also just dropped some explosive news that the worldâs richest man (Elon Musk) has allegedly been in regular secret contact with Vladimir Putin since 2022. At one point, the Russian president reportedly even asked Musk to avoid activating his Starlink internet service in Taiwan as a favour to Chinaâs Xi Jinping. The report notes that Musk, who hasnât yet commented on the allegations, has a US security clearance and is actively campaigning for Donald Trump.
UK launches antitrust probe into Googleâs latest AI partnership.
Britainâs antitrust watchdog has announced a formal investigation into Googleâs deal with AI startup Anthropic, on concerns the partnership could limit competition. British regulators previously cleared a similar deal between Anthropic and Amazon.
Japanese voters prepare for election.
Millions of Japanese citizens will head to the polls on Sunday to vote in the countryâs general election, which comes nearly a year early. The new prime minister (Shigeru Ishiba) called the snap election after seizing the leadership of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party, in an attempt to establish a mandate with the people â but polls suggest the LDP could now lose its parliamentary majority for the first time in 15 years.
BRICS leaders pause for the obligatory âfamily photoâ. L to R: the leaders of Ethiopia, Egypt, South Africa, China, Russia, India, UAE, and Iran plus the FM of Brazil
The yearly BRICS summit wrapped up in Russia yesterday (Thursday), ninja-starring dozens of new announcements out into the world before dropping a 32-page Joint Declaration that probably couldâve just been an email.
But first, some context. Starting out as a Goldman Sachs acronym for emerging markets with promise back in 2001, the four originals (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) actually started meeting together in 2009 before South Africa joined in 2010, not unlike how Danny Devito joined Itâs Always Sunny in Philadelphia in season two.
It all started out as an investment forum, but quickly evolved into more of a geopolitical group claiming to represent the Global South. And as weâll see below, it continues to evolve into something else.
Along the way, itâs picked up a few new members, including Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE, while another 10 or so are still in the hazing process. And BRICS members now account for about 35% of the world economy (half of that is China) and 45% of the worldâs population (three quarters of that is China + India).
Anyway, hosting duties fell to Russiaâs Vladimir Putin this year, after he had to dial into last yearâs summit due to the ICCâs warrant out for his arrest. So letâs get you five of the summitâs biggest revelations.
Are India and China friends again?
âFriendsâ is probably too strong of a word, but maybe frenemies? Thatâs because Indiaâs Narendra Modi and Chinaâs Xi Jinping met on the summit sidelines for the first time in over five years. And thatâs just days after Beijing and Delhi announced a deal on patrolling their disputed border, potentially thawing years of frostiness after dozens of their soldiers died in a brutal 2020 standoff involving sticks and clubs.
And of course, any improvement in ties is worth an approving nod, but the sheer size of these two players, the complexity of their ties, and the contrast between the futures they want to see, all means that realistically, this relationship is never going to be easy.
A new payment system?
One of the more intriguing (though not surprising) ideas getting some airtime at this summit was a Russia-led proposal to build a BRICS payment messaging system to bypass the Westâs dominant SWIFT platform (where Russian banks are banned).
Thatâs not surprising because the Russians have been hunting for options to settle their trades ever since they became the worldâs most sanctioned nation â they donât want Indian rupees, for example, but Indian buyers donât want to risk US sanctions by paying in US dollars, either.
Other BRICS members (like China) will be sympathetic to the need to future-proof against Western sanctions, such as in the event of a war over Taiwan. And history will judge whether the Westâs use of SWIFT to isolate Russia has undermined SWIFT itself.
But making this proposed new âBRICS bridgeâ a reality will face some big challenges: for instance, the currencies of the two biggest BRICS economies (China and India) arenât even fully convertible. Oh, and speaking of currencies â last year, BRICS leaders also suggested developing a common currency, an idea which has since gone nowhere.
A BRICS grain exchange?
Another Russia-led proposal, the idea here is for BRICS countries to barter their respective agricultural commodities directly, without pesky Western sanctions attached to the US dollar. An exchange like this, Russia argues, could then be expanded to other commodities which Russia conveniently also sells, like oil, gas, and metals.
Interestingly, there are already reports of Russia resorting to this â eg, one firm just settled a trade with cash-strapped Pakistan using 20,000 tonnes of chickpeas!
But signatories to the BRICS declaration merely said they âwelcomedâ Russiaâs proposal â weâve negotiated many texts and can confirm this is the equivalent of an awkward nod.
Still, the mere suggestion hints at the dire situation facing the worldâs largest exporter of wheat, with Putin now reportedly exporting high volumes for low prices while asking buyers to forgo intermediaries.
A flex from China?
During his address, President Xi Jinping announced China will establish several new BRICS bodies, including a deep-sea research centre, a centre dedicated to âspecial economic zonesâ in BRICS countries, a digital cooperation centre, and beyond.
Thereâs not a lot of detail around the proposals themselves, but the intended message seems clear: i) donât listen to the haters, BRICS is doing real, tangible stuff; ii) if you need help with anything, call China (weâll have a centre for that), and thatâs because iii) China is in the BRICS driverâs seat.
A divisive appearance by the UN chief
And finally, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has drawn fire for attending this BRICS summit. Critics say the guy charged with helping the world avoid âthe scourge of warâ shouldnât be visiting - let alone shaking hands with - the guy now wanted by the International Criminal Court for kidnapping children while invading his neighbour. Particularly after declining to attend Ukraineâs peace summit in Switzerland this June.
His defenders note he attended last yearâs summit too (though not in Russia, and not with Putin), and that the UN chief needs to deal with everyone to fulfil his mandate. On that last point, he reportedly even told Putin his invasion of Ukraine was illegal. But Putinâs smile suggests he mightâve heard something else: you can invade a neighbour and still get a UN photo opp.
INTRIGUEâS TAKE
Thereâs an unwritten rule in Hollywood that if someone tells you thereâs a problem with your script, theyâre probably right. But if they then tell you how to fix it, theyâre probably wrong.
The existence, messaging, and evolution of the BRICS group is all evidence of a problem with the international system: it still doesnât make enough space for the Global South. But does BRICS also hold the solution? Even some BRICS leaders themselves seem doubtful â one of the voices consistently tapping the groupâs brakes is Indiaâs Modi, whose summit remarks were pretty direct in cautioning BRICS against âtrying to replace global institutionsâ or giving off âdivisiveâ vibes.
And with that kind of tension between the groupâs two key members (China hitting the gas while India taps the brakes), itâs hard to see BRICS making meaningful progress. In the meantime, it offers a low-cost way for new members to signal their autonomy and get more access to world leaders. Though of course, each new member will only further complicate efforts to agree. And there are already disputes over who to even let in (Brazil just vetoed neighbouring Venezuelaâs membership bid this week).
Also worth noting:
Some 36 states attended this yearâs BRICS summit (including various BRICS partners).
Interestingly, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, which seems to be hovering somewhere in between BRICS membership and non-membership, skipped the summit in favour of a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
THE ULTIMATE TRAVEL GIVEAWAY
We teamed up with a couple of our favourite newsletters to offer Intriguers the chance to win the Ultimate Travel Bundle: an Away Carry-On, Away Everywhere Bag, and an annual subscription to Monocle.
If we could enter ourselves, we would.
đľđ° Pakistan: Pakistanâs finance minister has said his country is planning to finish privatising its national airline plus outsourcing Islamabadâs international airport next month. He said the cash-raising move, first announced in April, has been delayed to ensure âmacroeconomic stabilityâ and âdue diligence.â
đŤđˇ France: A conference in Paris has raised $800M in humanitarian aid and $200M in security assistance for the million or more Lebanese people displaced since Israel began its ground operation against Hezbollah. In his opening speech, President Macron announced France would contribute $108M, while calling for the war to âend as soon as possibleâ .
đ¸đŹ Singapore: The city-state has announced itâs successfully rolled out passport-less immigration clearance at its Changi Airport, cutting the average clearance time per passenger by 60%. The clearance process, which has been in place at four Changi terminals since September 30, has allowed immigration officers to be redeployed to "higher-valueâ roles.
đşđ¸ US: Speaking of Singapore, the Singaporean owner of the cargo ship that caused the deadly Baltimore Bridge disaster has agreed to settle (for $102M) a lawsuit brought by the US Justice Department. The state of Maryland has filed its own claim seeking damages for the reconstruction, which could cost $2B.
đ˛đż Mozambique: The countryâs ruling party (Frelimo) has won re-election in a landslide, despite large protests against extending its 49-year rule. Even before the official results broke, protests erupted across the country as allegations of election fraud in the resource-rich country emerged.
France has granted visas to six Russian soldiers who deserted their posts rather than fight in Ukraine.
New research suggests the Earthâs carbon sink systems are collapsing.
Another Russian oil executive has turned up dead in mysterious circumstances.
And Canada has announced a sharp cut to its immigration targets in an effort to âpause population growthâ.
The State Departmentâs Liesyl Franz with Intrigueâs co-founder Helen Zhang
Thanks to everyone who joined our latest Intrigue event! Hosted at Samsungâs DC offices last night (Thursday), our superb line-up of speakers helped a full house make sense of the buzz that is cyber security, in Securing TomorrowâCyber Threats & Global Defense. ICYMI, hereâs a brief highlight reel (before the YouTube drop):
Liesyl Franz from Stateâs Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy shared some juicy insights into how Foggy Bottom is working with US allies to boost cyber capabilities. Fun fact: the audience also included a pitcher from Liesylâs Major League Baseball home team, the Baltimore Orioles (hello beloved Intriguer!) âžď¸
Matt Turek from DARPAâs Information Innovation Office gave us a peek into his agencyâs efforts to maintain a US cyber advantage, including an intriguing analogy to icebergs (the real nitty-gritty is below the surface headlines) đ§, and
Brandon Wales from SentinelOne, whoâs recently switched over to the dark side private sector after a 20+ year career in government (including heading up the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency), reminded us that the first shot fired in the Russo-Ukraine war was actually a cyber attack (Brandon also rocked some great boba-tea socks đ§Ś+đ§ = đ).
And! Huge shout out to our amazing volunteers Cheryl, Griffin, Ryan, and Sarah for helping make our program seamless, energetic, and Intrigueâ˘ď¸ at its best â¨.
In honour of last nightâs Intrigue event in DC, hereâs a cybersecurity-themed quiz.
1) Which of the following is *not* an infamous hacker group? |
2) How many ransomware attempts were recorded in 2023? |
3) Which of the following is the most impersonated brand in phishing scams? |
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