🌎 The five spiciest lines at this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue

Plus: The meaning of life

Author

Kristen Talman
June 03, 2024

IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ The Shangri-La Dialogue’s 5 spiciest lines
2️⃣ China’s landing on the far side of the moon
3️⃣ The meaning of life

Hi Intriguer. With everything going on, sometimes you just gotta hit the local multiplex, load up on popcorn, and soak up 120 minutes of cinematic escapism.

But the last two times I’ve managed to do it, I’ve ended up seeing movies that still just ooze all the suspicion, grievance, and hostility of 2024 geopolitics: Dune 2, and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. So I somehow staggered out afterwards each time feeling I needed more escapism to escape the escapism.

Anyway, some of that same on-screen suspicion, grievance, and hostility was on-stage at Asia’s premier security summit over the weekend: the Shangri-La Dialogue. So today, we bring you five of that event’s spiciest quotes.

THE HEADLINES

Claudia Sheinbaum wins Mexican election.
Sheinbaum, from the ruling left-leaning Morena party, is set to become Mexico’s first female president after winning between 58% and 60% of the vote yesterday. She’ll replace her mentor and the outgoing president (‘AMLO’) on 1 October. Interestingly, the peso reversed earlier gains as investors realised Sheinbaum’s party has also likely secured a two-thirds majority in Congress, meaning she could theoretically push through constitutional changes.

World awaits Israel-Hamas responses to US proposal.
The White House has said the US has “every expectation” Israel will agree to its ceasefire proposal if Hamas does, though members of Israel’s government have criticised the deal, and a formal response from Hamas is still TBC. President Biden outlined his three-phase proposal on Friday, saying Hamas was “no longer capable” of attacking Israel again, and it’s “time for this war to end”. The phases involve i) a truce and the return of some hostages, followed by ii) a permanent ceasefire in exchange for the remaining living hostages held by Hamas. The third phase would see Hamas return the dead hostages to Israel.

Nvidia unveils next gen AI chip (again). 
The launch comes just months after the US-based AI chip pioneer unveiled its last AI chip, a sign that industry competition is heating up. The new chip class, named Rubin, promises improved power efficiency. One of Nvidia’s smaller US rivals, AMD, unveiled its own new AI processor shortly afterwards.

Saudi Aramco stocks sell out in hours.
Saudi Arabia’s oil giant sold $12B worth of shares yesterday (Sunday) in just a matter of hours. It’s not yet clear how much of the demand comes from foreign investors, a possible key indicator of broader interest in Saudi assets. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has agreed to extend its oil cuts to support prices.

Voting ends in Indian election.
After six weeks of voting, counting will begin tomorrow (Tuesday). Exit polls all suggest Prime Minister Modi has secured another term as expected, with an expanded majority in parliament.

TOP STORY

The five spiciest lines at this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue

The lush Shangri-La Hotel in Singapore, near the city’s famous Orchard Road, hosts the Shangri-La Dialogue each year.

The annual three-day Shangri-La Dialogue wrapped in Singapore yesterday (Sunday), bringing together world leaders, generals, and spies from 40 countries.

And this year's iteration of Asia’s premier security summit, its 21st, was also arguably its spiciest. So here are the five quotes you need to know, and why.

  1. "If a Filipino citizen is killed by a wilful act, that is, I think, very, very close to what we define as an act of war" - President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr

Marcos delivered the opening keynote, reiterating his (and an international court’s) rejection of China's claims to 90% of the South China Sea. But this time, his remarks featured two real differences. First, there was his edgy word choice, like directly criticising China's “illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive actions”.

But second, the bolded quote above really sought to draw a clearer red line with China, something he probably felt he a) wanted to do given the strength of pro-US sentiment among his voters; b) could do given the state of his country’s US alliance; and c) needed to do given China's recent moves to ban fishing, detain "trespassers", and water-cannon Philippine ships in the area.

So how did China weigh in?

  1. "Whoever dares to split Taiwan from China will be crushed to pieces" - Defence minister of China, Dong Jun

What a line, hey? Still, Dong's aim was to cast others as provocateurs - whether Taiwan's new president “seeking independence”, Manila playing the "victim" card, or the US (per Dong's deputies) seeking to stir trouble via an “Asian NATO”.

Having painted that picture, Dong then claimed China was showing "restraint", was committed to "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan, and would oppose any "cold wars or hot wars". Interestingly, he also emphasised "Asian wisdom", implying the US just doesn't belong in the region.

That's a lot, and probably reflects Dong’s various target audiences: his spicier lines might’ve been to prove himself back home, where his predecessor is still missing amid rumours of disloyalty. He also would’ve been focused on regional swing states, where China is pitching itself as the solution, not the problem.

So how did the US respond?

  1. "The United States can be secure only if Asia is secure" - Defence secretary of the US, Lloyd Austin

Austin's speech really hit two notes: first, by declaring that Asia “has remained our priority theater", he sought to brush off claims that the US doesn’t belong, or that it’s too distracted elsewhere in Europe and the Middle East.

And second, he highlighted Washington's "greatest global strategic advantage" (and something Beijing mostly lacks) - alliances, with shout-outs to the growing US security cooperation with South Korea, Japan, Australia and Europe.

And speaking of Europe...

  1. “It is unfortunate that such a big, independent, powerful country as China is an instrument in the hands of Putin” - President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Zelenskyy dropped this line during a surprise appearance late yesterday. His message was surprising, too: for the first time, he directly called out China's support for Russia's war, plus what he described as China’s pressure on others to skip this month’s peace summit in Switzerland.

Zelenskky’s aim here was really to build broad support for his peace plan, and thereby isolate Russia and its friends. And it’s interesting that, after two years of biting his tongue in the hopes that China might not back Russia’s invasion, Zelenskyy has clearly reached the conclusion that this ship has now sailed.

So how did smaller countries respond to all this drama?

  1. "We must avoid a physical conflict in Asia" - Defence minister of Singapore, Ng Eng Hen

After summing up the weekend’s vibes like this, summit co-host Dr Ng also spelled out what he still sees as the solution: it’s our same post-WWII world order, with its international law and institutions, that really “guarantees the security and survival of large nations and small”.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

A common theme this year was that more folks are now just saying the quiet bit out loud, not only on-stage (see spicy quotes above), but also off-stage: eg, a South Korean professor in the audience triggered applause when he asked this question of China's defence minister: “how can we trust you when your words and your actions are totally opposite?”

Or look at when Austin got a round of applause when he refused to accept China’s suggestion that NATO’s expansion caused the Russo-Ukraine war.

Now, we’ve seen enough episodes of Two and a Half Men to know that audience volume isn’t always a reliable indicator of content quality. But still, it's unusual for China's senior officials to be exposed to this level of live, unscripted scrutiny.

And we can't help but wonder whether, like Russia since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, China might soon also be 'too busy' to attend Shangri-La again.

Also worth noting:

  • India was (again) absent this year. Delhi blames its elections, though others see it as evidence of the continued limits around India’s influence in the region.

  • On the first day of the conference (Friday), China’s foreign ministry confirmed it won’t attend this month’s peace summit in Switzerland, saying it should include Russia (which hasn’t been invited, though has also described the summit as “pointless”).

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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

  1. 🇨🇳 China: The Chang'e 6 robotic spacecraft, launched by China’s space agency on May 3rd, touched down successfully on the far side of the Moon Sunday morning. Beijing’s aim is to collect, for the first time in history, precious rock and soil samples from this region of the Moon. 

  2. 🇮🇸 Iceland: Halla Tomasdottir, an entrepreneur, has won Iceland’s weekend presidential election, defeating a former prime minister for the mostly ceremonial position. Iceland, with a long-running pacifist tradition, is the only NATO member without a standing army. 

  3. 🇲🇻 Maldives: The Muslim-majority archipelago has announced it’s banning entry by Israelis amid growing anger over Israel’s actions in Gaza. Around 11,000 Israelis visited the tourist destination last year, making up around 0.6% of all arrivals.

  4. 🇵🇦 Panama: Authorities are relocating some 300 families from Gardi Sugdub island off Panama’s Caribbean coast due to rising sea levels, plus stronger storms powered by warmer oceans. Panama’s environment ministry estimates the country will lose 2% of its coastal territory by 2050.

  5. 🇰🇼 Kuwait: The ruling emir has named Sabah Al Khalid Al Sabah as the country’s new crown prince and heir. Al Sabah, a former foreign minister and prime minister, will be the first crown prince to come from the Al Hamad (rather than Jaber or Salem) branches of the ruling family.

EXTRA INTRIGUE

🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news

SURVEY OF THE DAY

Courtesy of Pew Research Center

Maybe it’s too early in the week to get all metaphysical on you, but Pew Research once posed an open-ended question about the meaning of life to 19,000 adults across 17 advanced economies. The answer?

As you might glean from the above summary, 14 of the countries cited family as their top choice, and 14 cited work or material wellbeing as number two. So, dear Intriguer, maybe get out there and hug your family (on your way to work).

Last Thursday’s poll: What do you think about coalition governments?

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🔴 Bad - they're ineffective and chaotic (32%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟢 Good - they drive unity and moderation (56%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (12%)

Your two cents:

  • 🔴 M.A: “They’re cumbersome and tend to lead to stagnation and long lead times to approve laws/regulations. That said, there has to be adequate limitation around what a majority government can do.”

  • 🟢 P.C: “They increase the chance that most voters are actually represented in government.”

  • ✍️ R.D: “As with anything, there are pros and cons. Coalitions can encourage a diversity of perspectives, but increases the complexity of getting things done.”

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