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🌍 Five implications of Nasrallah’s assassination

🌍 Five implications of Nasrallah’s assassination

Plus: Snafu of the day

September 30, 2024

IN TODAY’S EDITION

1️⃣ 5 implications from Nasrallah’s assassination

2️⃣ EL Chapo’s lawyer makes a career change

3️⃣ Snafu of the day

Hi Intriguer. I love travel, just for the sheer unpredictability of it all.

E.g, there are parts of the world where it’s common to chew betel nut - a kind of stimulant that leaves red stains all over town as folks spit it out. In one such town that’ll remain anonymous, taxi drivers chew betel to keep energised. And rather than staining the outsides of their own cars by spitting out the window, they actually open their car doors - mid fare, mind you - to spit down onto the road.

Okay, so true story: a foreign diplomat once arrived and was surprised to find nobody from the embassy waiting as promised. So this fresh-faced envoy hopped in a local taxi, but was soon startled when the driver opened his own door and leaned a bit too vigorously out for a spit, just as he hit a pot-hole - the driver went tumbling out of his own car while the bewildered diplomat watched from the back seat. The driver was fine, jogged to catch up to his own car, then continued as if nothing had happened.

Anyway, let’s dive into today’s briefing, which leads with the latest on the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah.

THE HEADLINES

Hard-right party wins Austrian election.
The Euro-sceptic, Russia-friendly, and anti-migration Freedom Party has won 29%, doubling its last share and finishing three points ahead of the centre-right ruling party. Turnout was a high ~80%. The next step will be to form a coalition government, but don’t hold your breath - that typically takes months.

Israel strikes central Beirut for first time since 2006.
The airstrikes hit an apartment building in the early hours of this morning (Monday), killing three leaders of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Meanwhile, a parallel airstrike in southern Lebanon has killed the main Hamas leader in the country.

Incoming Japanese PM to call for October election.
Newly appointed (but not yet inaugurated) Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has pledged to call a general election for 27 October, bringing forward next year’s scheduled vote. He’ll formally take over the PM role tomorrow (Tuesday) and is seen as a monetary hawk, likely explaining why the yen has strengthened since he won his party’s leadership race.

China’s AI chips leader sees stocks soar.
AI chipmaker Cambricon has gained the maximum 20% allowed in daily trading amid a wider rally that ushered in the best day since 2008 for the mainland’s stock market. Cambricon is benefitting from Beijing’s efforts to deter the local use of chips from US-based Nvidia.

Hurricane Helene leaves trail of devastation.
Helene has battered the south-eastern US, leaving over 90 people dead after making landfall as a category 4 hurricane late last week. It’s expected to dissipate today (Monday).

TOP STORY

Five implications from Nasrallah’s assassination

The crater left at the site where Israel assassinated Hassan Nasrallah. Credits: AP/Hussein Malla

Hassan Nasrallah gave his last public remarks back on September 19, vowing to avenge Israel's pager attacks via a plan that’d be privy to "only the narrowest circle" of Hezbollah.

But nine days later, as the sun set over Beirut on Friday evening, Israel assassinated the Hezbollah chief and his remaining circle in their underground bunker, using dozens of air-launched munitions in a bunker-busting tactic known as 'daisy chaining'. It killed not only Nasrallah and ~20 of his lieutenants, but also his adult daughter, an Iranian general, and (at least) dozens more, including in a half dozen residential buildings above ground.

Who was Nasrallah?

After stints studying at Shiite seminaries in Najaf (Iraq) and Qom (Iran), he took the reins of Hezbollah when an Israeli gunship assassinated his predecessor back in 1992. Nasrallah then went on to transform the listed terrorist group, including its:

Tactics (towards more of a guerrilla approach)
Politics (to become a dominant player in Lebanon)
Optics (providing social services like health and education), and all fuelled by
Finances (sitting atop a vast illicit economy plus Iranian largesse).

Along the way, many lionised Nasrallah for ousting Israel from Lebanon in 2000 and 2006. But Hezbollah also helped assassinate Lebanon's PM in 2005, crushed reformist voices, blocked a probe into the catastrophic 2020 Beirut explosion, and helped prop up neighbouring Syrian dictator al-Assad, resulting in the deaths of a half million Syrians.

And maybe that helps explain the mixed reactions to Nasrallah’s death: many Shia voices are mourning across Iraq, Iran, and parts of Lebanon. But opposition-held towns in Syria are openly celebrating his demise, while Lebanon’s 17 other religious sects, with varying experiences of Hezbollah’s domination, have still mostly hunkered down for now, wary of more sectarian strife.

Arguably the most interesting reactions have been elsewhere, with players like Egypt, Jordan, the Saudis and others all relatively muted. That likely reflects their own balancing act, with populations that largely echo Hezbollah's voiced solidarity with the Palestinian people, but with rulers who see Hezbollah as a tool to boost Iran’s own regional clout.

And that brings us to what Nasrallah's assassination means.

Israel is again facing criticism over its use of so much firepower in a residential area. And its own US allies will be embarrassed that, just as they were calling for a ceasefire, with Bibi himself in New York, Israel instead used US arms to escalate.
Hezbollah now looks like a paper tiger - it thought it could contain things to a carefully calibrated tit-for-tat, preserving its own cred without escalating too far, but it’s now lost virtually its entire leadership and much of its arsenal in nine days.
That risks tipping the balance across Lebanon, where the intimidation Hezbollah has long used to dominate rival factions has just been denuded - the result could be an easing of the group’s stranglehold, and/or more sectarian bloodshed.
It also risks tipping the balance in neighbouring Syria, where to the extent Hezbollah (like Assad’s other backer, Russia) continues to refocus its resources back home, it’ll leave Assad more exposed.
And this might all tip the balance against Iran, which has now barely lifted a finger as its own proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and beyond have all taken hits. It leaves Tehran looking less trustworthy to its allies, less fearsome to its rivals, and less invincible to its own people. And that all leaves less of a deterrent for Israel to, say, take out Iran’s nuclear facilities.

So it's any wonder why the regime in Tehran has now reportedly spirited its ageing supreme leader away to a secret secure location, if such a place even exists at this point.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

The other big question is whether or not Bibi now presses onwards with another full ground invasion into Lebanon, to push Hezbollah 15km (9mi) back beyond the Litani River as required by UN Security Council resolution 1701 (2006). There are already reports of Israeli special forces conducting exploratory raids over the border.

Israel says it wants the ~60,000 Israelis displaced by Hezbollah rocket attacks to return to their homes, and history suggests that’ll be hard to achieve via an air campaign alone, plus Hezbollah is now at its weakest in years, but…
In addition to the humanitarian costs, sending Israeli troops back into Lebanon would risk tilting things back in favour of Hezbollah, which has spent the better part of the last two decades rigging the whole area with tunnels, weapons, and defences.

Still, with Netanyahu now riding high at home and US support not going anywhere, it’s hard to see him tapping the brakes at this point.

Also worth noting:

An estimated one million people have now been displaced within Lebanon in the last week, with 100,000 fleeing over the border to Syria.
Hezbollah has long held the destruction of Israel as a core aim (Nasrallah infamously described the country as a cancer).

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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

🇳🇵 Nepal: Over 100 people have now lost their lives as major floods hit the valley around the capital Kathmandu. The rains are forecast to continue until tomorrow (Tuesday), but they already seem to be easing.
🇫🇷 France: The newly installed French cabinet is reportedly working on a plan to temporarily raise taxes on big corporations as a way to inject cash into government coffers. The proposal consists of raising taxes on profits from 25% to 33.5% for companies with a turnover above $1.1B.
🇲🇾 Malaysia: On Wednesdays we wear pink we don’t eat sugar. The Malaysian parliament has vowed to go sugar-free on Wednesdays in an effort to counter one of the highest diabetes rates in Southeast Asia.
🇦🇷 Argentina: The country’s stats agency says that during the first six months of President Milei’s austerity-focused term, Argentina’s poverty rate jumped from 42% to 53%. His administration blames these poverty levels, not seen since Argentina’s 2003 crisis, on the lingering effects of his predecessors’ economic policies.
🇹🇳 Tunisia: Parliament has approved a law to deprive a top court of any authority to preside over electoral disputes, just ahead of Tunisia’s presidential election this weekend. Critics say it’s another example of Kais Saied seeking to cling to power after he disbanded the previous parliament.

EXTRA INTRIGUE

🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news

Ohio locals have called the police after a cat found (and started playing with) a live hand grenade in a basement.
A mother-daughter team in Spain is apparently training bacteria to help restore frescoes in churches.
An aquarium in Australia has a huge new 22.5kg (50lb) baby penguin called Pesto who somehow outweighs both his parents combined.
Researchers in China have uncovered a 3,600-year old coffin containing traces of what could be the oldest cheese in the world.
And lawyers can take heart knowing it’s never too late for a career change: the former defence attorney for Sinaloa Cartel kingpin ‘El Chapo’ is about to drop her debut album under the stage name ‘Mariel La Abogada’ (Mariel the Lawyer).

SNAFU OF THE DAY

Satellite imagery of the incident response at a shipyard in Wuchang. Credits: Planet Labs.

A submarine under the waves wouldn’t ordinarily get its own prized section in an edition of International Intrigue.

But this is no ordinary submarine - rather, it’s one of China’s newest nuclear-powered subs, and it’s apparently been underwater since it accidentally sank at a shipyard near Wuhan some time between May and June. It was the first of China’s new Zhou-class subs, which Beijing hopes will further strengthen its navy (already the world’s largest).

Local authorities still haven’t acknowledged or explained the incident. But the bigger picture is that it looks like proof China has now expanded production of its nuclear submarines beyond the traditional coastal port of Huludao.

DAILY POLL

Do you think Iran will step up its support of its proxies in the region?

Last Thursday’s poll: Who do you think will win this game of union vs industry chicken?

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🦺 The labour union, it has the leverage (27%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🚢 The shipping companies, they can afford to play hard ball (8%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⛔ Nobody, we all lose (63%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)

Your two cents:

⛔ J.E: “The U.S. election being only 35 days away gives both the companies and the union a hell of a big stage to perform on. Nobody wants to lose this one, and no one can afford to win...”
🚢 J.R: “A public who is already reeling from inflation will have little patience for a strike that could further increase prices due to decreased supply. Especially when part of the demand is an 80% pay raise, which may be reasonable to dockworkers, but on the surface sounds ridiculous when many people are only getting 2-5% pay increases annually.”
🦺 J.B: “A win for the unions is a win for everyone!”
✍️ S.B: “American ports desperately need automation to stay competitive, but the unions stand in the way. This is more than a strike, it's a battle in a larger war.”

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