Today’s briefing:
— What killed Keir Starmer
— This first lady is in trouble
— The K-drama / telenovela we needed
Your Insider’s briefing:
— What killed Keir Starmer
— This first lady is in trouble
— The K-drama / telenovela we needed
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Before today’s quick post-mortem of Keir Starmer’s brief prime ministership, we need to acknowledge that the last few days of British political turmoil have yet again produced comedy gold:
In a nod to all the endless upheaval, one joker is already calling on Starmer’s presumed replacement (Andy Burnham) to resign
Another wag noted Burnham would be Britain’s first PM in 16 years not to hail from Oxford, coming instead from deeply humble roots (Cambridge), and
Still another likened the BBC’s breathless reporting on Burnham’s London train journey to Prigozhin’s infamous march on Moscow.
For me? It’s all looked a little less like some dignified transfer of power in a world capital, and more a kind of Scouser inverse of the OJ Simpson car chase. But let’s see what it all means.
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
4
That’s how many times South Korea’s KOSPI stock index has now triggered a market-wide circuit breaker trading suspension this year, after another ~10% crash on Monday. Korea saw zero such circuit breakers last year.
Falling down, falling down.
Over the past few years, doctors in the UK have observed the emergence of an obscure seasonal ailment: as temperatures go up, leaders go down.
Don’t believe us? David Cameron announced his resignation in June, and both Theresa May and Boris Johnson stepped down in July. Now it’s Keir Starmer’s turn.
So don your scrubs, because we’re doing a post-mortem.
It’s only two years ago that Starmer made history, inflicting the Conservative Party’s worst result in its 190-year life, and just missing Tony Blair’s record win for Labour.
And yet… he’s now completed that same fateful walk out to a small black podium in front of 10 Downing Street to announce he’s resigning. Why? In his own words, Starmer said his centre-left ruling party had lost faith in his leadership.
But would a coroner accept that cause of political death? No. So let’s explore his…
Cause of death: A fatal blow
Our favourite explanation is that Starmer was doomed ever since February 9th, when a photographer called Yui Mok snapped that pic of Starmer fleeing, ghost-like, in the back of his armoured Range Rover. No British public figure ever survives that pic.
But true as that may be, the final blow came from fellow Labour Party luminary Andy Burnham, who made a smart decision back in 2017: after two failed runs for party leader, he quit parliament and ran for mayor of Manchester, where he’s spent the last decade building a name tackling transport and housing issues while the capital burned.
But surely a mayor can’t just suddenly become prime minister? Hah. In Britain’s parliamentary democracy, you just need party support + a seat in parliament. So with Starmer’s polling plummeting, his party needed a saviour, and someone in Manchester voluntarily vacated their parliamentary seat so Burnham could run and save the nation.
That by-election happened Thursday, and Starmer resigned ~72 hours later rather than fight an internal party battle he was destined to lose. But surely it’s not so simple…?
Autopsy: Co-morbidities
Clearly Keir was unwell before anyone abroad ever heard of Manchester’s mayor.
Some of those ailments were personal, like Starmer’s wooden vibes, or his poor decisions such as appointing Epstein-BFF Peter Mandelson as British ambassador to the US.
But others were environmental, like the fact all five (soon six) PMs of the last seven years have struggled to tackle high debt, low wages, creaking services, and creeping malaise.
With populists pounding at the door, his steps to the right might’ve then bled party support from the left. Okay, but anything else the coroner should consider? Yes…
Witness interviews
Grim as this sounds, there’s now a lot of relief in the air — 60% of Brits say Starmer did the right thing by resigning, and even 50% of his own party faithful are happy he’s gone. That speaks to the sheer depths of his recent approval ratings.
But markets somehow kept calm and carried on. The pound and bonds regained most of their losses by EOD, while the FTSE 100 traded higher. Yes, investors abhor instability, but this change has arguably been priced in since that pic, and the transition will be smooth.
*snaps latex gloves off, takes off face mask *
Ok so, what’s next?
Starmer remains as caretaker until his party chooses a replacement.
And wouldn’t you know it, but Andy ‘King of the North’ Burnham got sworn in to parliament the very same day Starmer announced his exit, and immediately announced his bid for the top job. He already seems to clear the main party hurdles (like support from 20% of Labour MPs), with no other challenger now in the ring.
Assuming nobody else comes forward, he’ll be Britain’s new PM within weeks rather than months, though still facing Britain’s same old problems.
Intrigue’s Take
In these troubled times, we can all at least agree on one thing: Keir Starmer has good hair. Just look at it up there: pure statesmanlike silver. But good hair or not, Starmer himself cautioned two years ago that there was no magic wand to fix the UK’s problems. And yet here we are watching him get ditched for a new magic Scouser wand called Andy…
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇪🇸 SPAIN — Spouse issues.
A Spanish judge has ruled that Begoña Gómez, who’s married to PM Pedro Sanchez, is now under a travel ban while she stands trial on corruption charges. She denies any wrongdoing but — combined with the PM’s former top aide just copping 24 years (!) for corruption — it’s all piling pressure on his tenure. (NYT $)
Comment: Scorching a first lady with a travel ban is wild in itself, but police unions are also angry with the judge’s suggestion that her bodyguards could help her flee! The bigger picture, however, is that while one scandal is survivable, multiple overlapping scandals create a narrative of systemic rot that voters struggle to ignore.
🇶🇦 QATAR — Deadly restart.
A reported technical explosion at the Barzan gas processing facility in Qatar’s massive Ras Laffan LNG hub has killed at least 13 workers and injured dozens more. Authorities are stressing no sabotage was involved. (Al Jazeera)
Comment: Coming just as Iran’s Ghalibaf is reiterating the regime will continue to “administer” the Strait of Hormuz, this grim incident is a reminder that even if (big if) these US-Iran talks produce a workable new equilibrium, it still won’t be as simple as just “let the oil flow”. Meanwhile, the US has officially waived sanctions on Iranian oil for 60 days, with VP Vance claiming Iran will in turn let the UN nuclear watchdog return as part of the deal (something Iran seems to be denying).
🇬🇳 GUINEA — Golden ban.
President Doumbouya has banned all raw gold exports with immediate effect, with every ounce now needing to be refined locally before it can leave. (Mining.com)
Comment: It’s a classic attempt by Africa’s 10th largest gold producer to move up the value chain and create more local jobs rather than watch others (like Dubai) pocket the profit. The question is a) how quickly Guinea can build the refining capacity to make the policy stick, and b) whether this is a warning shot for the investors already pouring billions into Guinea’s bigger prize, the massive Simandou iron ore project.
🇧🇴 BOLIVIA — End in sight?
With even President Paz’s pledge to scrap his austerity and privatisation plans still failing to mollify Bolivia’s more hardline protestors, Paz has now declared a nationwide state of emergency for troops to clear remaining blockades. (Guardian)
Comment: We explored this one here. Paz has had few good options, but his latest deal with the main labour union looks like a classic half-measure that pleased almost no-one: he bought off the big unions, but the harder-line factions now smell blood and want him gone altogether.
🇨🇳 CHINA — Payback.
As we foreshadowed, Beijing has now hit back at the latest US blacklisting of Chinese tech firms like Alibaba, announcing new rules that block China-origin sales to 10 US firms including drone-makers and rare earths producers. (The Hill)
Comment: Most of the US defence contractors (including arms of BAE and L3Harris) were already curbing whatever China exposure they had left. So sanctioning them (while excluding another ~46 from China’s public procurement) is pretty symbolic. But the moves against those rare earths players (MP Materials, USA Rare Earths) will hurt — their whole schtick is “don’t buy from China”, but they themselves still need some tech and inputs from China. Zooming out, the bigger picture here is also that for all their pageantry, Trump and Xi still seem locked in structural competition.
🇫🇷 FRANCE — Heatwave emergency.
Amid Europe’s second major heatwave in a matter of weeks, France’s education minister has closed 845 schools, while another 1,800 have started letting pupils out early. More than half the country is now under a rare ‘red alert’ heat warning after 18 died, with similar alerts now hitting Spain, Italy, and beyond. (EuroNews)
Comment: This heatwave is unusually early and intense for June, but it exposes a familiar weakness — ageing populations in older buildings with minimal AC, while governments struggle to adapt.
🇳🇿 NEW ZEALAND — Spooks sound the AI alarm.
In a rare joint statement, the cyber agencies from the Five Eyes intelligence partners (US, UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand) have warned that frontier AI models are now poised to “fundamentally transform” offensive and defensive cyber capabilities. They’re urging leaders and CEOs to treat cyber resilience as an urgent, board-level priority. (RNZ)
Comment: The timing is intriguing, just after the US blocked foreign access to Anthropic’s advanced AI models amid red-team tests that supposedly breached US classified systems. It also comes as China’s new GLM-5.2 model (plus even Japan’s new Fugu) tests near Anthropic in some metrics. But this statement also implicitly confirms something we suspected amid those claims that AI breached secure US systems — realistically any sensitive systems are air-gapped (ie, not connected externally), and this joint statement still seemingly highlights air-gapping as your best defence: “Challenge whether systems need to be exposed at all and isolate those that do not.”
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Romance of the day
Screenshots from @kdt21081’s video
Can two countries fall in love, dear Intriguer?
Ask any South Korean soccer fan now visiting Mexico, and they’ll give you a clear — if slightly bewildered — ‘yes’. The evidence is as chaotic as it is adorable:
Whether it’s random Korean tourists getting stopped for selfies, or plied with tequila, or drafted into streetside dance-offs, or straight-up yeeted into the air like human sombreros (see above), the love is real. And it’s gone cross-border, with even LA’s Koreatown now smashing bulgogi quesadillas at joint watch parties.
But if that’s today’s rom-com, when was the meet-cute? It was actually back in 2018, when Korea’s shock win over Germany helped keep Mexico’s World Cup dream alive. Mexico’s fans never forgot, and still belt out the same classic chant: “Coreano, hermano, ya eres mexicano!” (“Korean brother, you’re already Mexican!”).
We just feel slightly bad for Mexican and Korean diplomats grinding away at the embassy, only to get absolutely mogged by fans elevating bilateral ties with zero talking points and several rounds of tequila.
Today’s poll
Do you think the UK's new PM will fare better than Starmer?
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think Colombia made the right call?
👮 Yes, it's time to get tough on security (51%)
🍲 No, Petro's social gains need protecting (48%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)
Your two cents:
👮 G.C: “The election was also marked by sincere worries regarding the current government, given their push to rewrite the country’s constitution, and what has been considered a lenient way of treating criminals and myriad scandals of Petro's close circle.”
✍️ J: “Colombia's problems require both a generous economic approach and a tough law enforcement approach. Neither extreme has all the answers.”
And one, just for the laughs.
✍️ U: “Well, they certainly made a 'right' call. snicker [pats self on the back]”