Today’s briefing:
— Who bombed this gold mine
— Another paradise, lost?
— A diplomatic yard sale
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Your Insider’s briefing:
— Who bombed this gold mine
— Another paradise, lost?
— A diplomatic yard sale
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Back in 1899, a group of British and Egyptian diplomats sat down with a ruler, drew a perfectly straight line across the 22nd parallel, and declared it the Egypt-Sudan border.
Now fast forward a century, and that same line cuts across billions in illegal gold, competing regional ambitions, and 72 (!) dead miners that nobody wants to claim.
It might be a window into something bigger over the horizon. Shall we?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Quote of the day
“There is a 2008 real estate credit angle to this AI boom”
That’s a line from Christopher Wood of Wall Street’s Jefferies, warning we can no longer assume “that large language models will ever be profitable.”
All that glitters.
Your back and arms hurt. The air is heavy with humidity, worsened by an incessant sun. You’ve been digging through the red, rocky terrain for hours. You and the thousands of other fellow Sudanese miners on site only have one goal: strike gold.
Then comes a familiar low hum across the horizon. After decades of civil war since independence in 1956, you know low-altitude aircraft are never good news, so you start scrambling down the slick mountain path but — the explosions start.
That’s more or less what just happened on the Sudanese-Egyptian border over the weekend, leaving 72 Sudanese gold miners dead.
Who did it? Why? And where’s this all headed? The main suspects include…
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Sudan’s notorious RSF paramilitary, led by the warlord Hemedti, has been waging war against Sudan’s military since 2023, sparked by a long-brewing power struggle.
Three years on, and Hemedti’s men have now racked up a string of atrocities, including his siege then massacre at El-Fasher that left an estimated 60,000 (not a typo) dead last year. He’s also been besieging El-Obeid (pop 500k) since early 2023, and probably hit a displacement camp near a rival gold site just last week.
But for all his sins, it’s unlikely the RSF bombed those 72 miners over the weekend. Why?
The hit was 800km (500mi) from the nearest RSF stronghold, and
The RSF doesn’t have the kinds of fixed-wing aircraft to project that far.
So even if the RSF wanted to hit this rival gold operation, it realistically couldn’t.
Then what about…
The Sudanese military
Sudan’s military technically controls the turf and has the necessary airpower, but really lacks any plausible motive: like the RSF, Sudan’s military finances its war by smuggling gold abroad (no matter the faction, it nearly all ends up in Dubai).
So why airstrike the exact wildcat gold operations filling your own war chest?
That really leaves only one player with the jets, the reach, and the precedent…
Egypt
The burden of evidence against Egypt is pretty damning, starting with…
The location: the remote, Slovenia-sized, resource-rich Halayeb triangle is claimed by both Sudan and its Egyptian allies, hence…
The patrols: it’s really Egyptian warplanes with air dominance here, plus they have…
The motive: Egypt has increasingly bristled at the lawless border region, right as Egypt (losing Suez revenue) tries to get its own mining sector in shape, plus…
The precedent: Egyptian jets literally just hit the same mining area in June, killing 23 random workers. Cairo openly boasted at the time about a “large-scale operation” against illegal border prospecting, which brings us to…
The admission: shortly after Saturday’s attacks, Egyptian security officials duly acknowledged their “third phase” of an operation to end border “chaos” (though they’re stopping short of claiming this mine hit).
So okay, perhaps Egypt did it, with plenty of reasons to throw its weight around the Halayeb triangle: did we mention the offshore zone is likely also rich in oil and gas?
But it really now puts Egypt’s own ally, Sudan’s General Burhan, in a rough spot: folks across Sudan are outraged, and silence would amount to tacit acceptance of Egypt’s dominance over Sudanese turf. But Burhan can’t really speak out against his primary foreign backer, military lifeline, and diplomatic guarantor in Cairo.
So instead, he’s tried to strike some kind of balance by announcing a meek “fact-finding investigation” — if anyone has his email, just forward him the section above?
Intrigue’s Take
Squint hard enough, and you’ll glimpse here a grim preview of how 21st-century proxy warfare will shape up: less about grand Cold War ideologies, and more about…
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Intrigue’s Take
Squint hard enough, and you’ll glimpse here a grim preview of how 21st-century proxy warfare will shape up: less about grand Cold War ideologies, and more about ambitious regional hubs each carving out space within the cracks of the US-led order, while fuelled by ruthless resource competition and economic desperation.
All the ingredients (including the absence of meaningful world attention) are there:
You’ve got hard assets (gold, oil, gas) that not only lure regional players but also ensure the conflict becomes self-funding, buying arms, fuel, and goons
You’ve got old colonial-era borders that never reflected the hard realities in the first place, but now fuel the next era of grievances
You’ve got middle powers jostling to fill the superpower void, with the Emiratis, Egyptians, Qataris, and Turks all now aggressively deploying cash, intel, and power to reshape the Horn of Africa and Red Sea in their own image
And you’ve got a web of alliances that looks increasingly transactional, backing you against that shared foe right up until your own chaos becomes inconvenient, or your own dependence emboldens them to yoink your turf.
Can you think of other regions where these ingredients are present? Or… might it be quicker to think of the regions where they’re absent?
From the Donbas to the eastern Mediterranean to the Himalayas and the South China Sea, plus even some of the gold-dusted frontiers of the Amazon, the superpower umbrella is fraying, leaving everyone to enforce their own perimeters and bankroll their own wars.
The victims this time around were 72 artisanal miners in Sudan. But next time?
Sound even smarter:
Sudan’s artisanal gold mining sector employs ~two million people.
Today’s briefing is sponsored by The Chief of Staff Association
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇨🇩 DR CONGO — Rebel comeback?
A former president (Kabila) has announced he’s starting a new rebel group that’ll fold in the Rwanda-backed M23 controlling chunks of the Congo’s east. (The Africa Report $)
Comment: Kabila — who ruled Congo for 18 years before stepping down in 2019 — has long denied he was pulling any strings from the shadows. To now openly lead an armed coalition against his successor is quite the reveal, torpedoing US / regional-brokered ceasefires in the process, while foreign miners scramble. It’s also awkward for regional powerbroker Kenya, which has long tried to play mediator while also hosting Kabila.
🇫🇷 FRANCE — Supermarket meltdown.
Unknown hackers have remotely compromised industrial refrigeration systems across hundreds of French supermarkets, forcing cooling units into continuous defrost cycles and spiking temps up to 50°C (122°F). (Le Monde)
Comment: Beyond the millions in lost inventory across chains like E.Leclerc and Intermarché, it’s a big escalation in infrastructure hacking beyond the usual data theft and ransom demands. Absent a financial motive, perhaps you’re looking for someone with an incentive to cause chaos across the free world…
🇰🇵 NORTH KOREA — New museum alert.
Local dictator Kim Jong Un has used his country’s sleek new national defence museum to unveil an untested new ballistic missile theoretically capable of reaching the US. (Japan Times)
Comment: President Trump’s hint that he “may” meet Kim next month sounds like another improvisational bluff. With Putin now sending Kim cash and tech in return for artillery and goons, US leverage has only tapered since Trump’s first term. The purported flex of an ICBM capable of reaching the US is designed to erode that leverage further.
🇲🇺 MAURITIUS — Trouble in paradise.
Schools will remain closed today (Tuesday) and office workers will dial in remotely after protests turned violent overnight, even burning down a police station. What started out against water shortages and the cost of living quickly escalated after police shot a young woman. (Bloomberg $)
Comment: The fact the government flew in an emergency medical team from India to save the young mother, while arresting the trigger-happy officer, all hints at how desperate authorities are to avert a broader collapse in public trust in the offshore financial and tourist haven.
🇨🇳 CHINA — Border plague control.
A city in China’s Heilongjiang border province has issued a plague alert for travellers coming from Russia’s Far East, stepping up health checks and border monitoring in response to Russia’s possible Siberia lab leak. (Caixin Global $)
Comment: This probably reflects bureaucratic lag rather than any kind of nimble response to new evidence. China’s border cities often issue advisories in the spirit of “cover your butt” once foreign health reports start circulating in state media. We explored Russia’s mysterious lab death last week, with authorities insisting they’ve detected no further pathogens.
🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA — Chip rout.
Asian equity markets have taken a beating today (Tuesday), led by a massive tech selloff in Seoul where the KOSPI plunged 6% and (again) triggered its circuit breakers. (Korea Times)
Comment: The immediate catalyst appears to have been an announcement from China’s CXMT memory giant claiming a tech breakthrough, sparking panic that China’s state-backed supply chains could soon erode the partial 80% margins enjoyed by Korea’s Samsung and Hynix. Both stocks are still up 96% (Samsung) and 140% (Hynix) for the year, but today’s chaos is a reminder how fragile any AI boom may be.
🇸🇦 SAUDI ARABIA — We’ll think about it.
Israel’s Netanyahu has reportedly asked the Saudi crown prince (MBS) for approval to help out against Yemen’s Houthis, though the Saudis (who don’t recognise Israel) have reportedly declined, to avoid further complicating regional diplomacy. (AA)
Comment: It comes as the Saudis continue walking their tightrope, which you can see in three parallel announcements: i) Iran just hit another six vessels in Hormuz; ii) the escalating Houthi strikes have now forced Delta to delay direct US-Saudi flights, and iii) the Saudis just announced plans to expand their critical East-West pipeline to bypass the Hormuz chokepoint.
🇦🇷 ARGENTINA — Falls closed.
Authorities have temporarily closed access to the famed Iguazu Falls after El Niño-fuelled rains sextupled the river’s flow. (Guardian)
Comment: With the 2026-27 El Niño weather pattern on track to break records, we may see more of these wild headlines ahead.
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Yard sale of the day
Pics from the AAFSW’s Insta. Their annual Art & BookFair has run since 1961.
If you ever wanted to own a hand-woven textile that once adorned a top-secret embassy facility, or a niche out-of-print geography book that once helped an ambitious multilingual nerd pass their foreign service exam, well this is your moment.
The Associates of the American Foreign Service Worldwide, helping support foreign service families, are back again hosting DC’s ultimate insider secret: the annual Art & BookFair.
Hosted inside the State Department at Foggy Bottom, this Saturday-Sunday is the final weekend, so bring your ID for entry, beat the crowds, and maybe come armed with a credible excuse to deploy against your significant other for why you absolutely need another 15-pound stack of 1980s Central Asian travel guides.
Today’s poll
Through which European sector do you think hackers could do the most damage?
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think President Trump will be able to meaningfully curb US diesel prices before the midterms?
📉 Yep, he'll throw everything at this (5%)
📈 Nope, this shortage is beyond his control (94%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (1%)
Your two cents:
📈 S.G: “It’s clear there is more focus on the shell game than a meaningful adjustment. Convince consumers it is imminent rather than producing actual change…”
📉 Mrs D : “He’ll throw everything at the problem; it doesn’t mean it’ll do it any good.”
✍️ J: “With EU sanctions still in place and insurance companies hesitant to go against those sanctions, the shipping companies won't deliver what little Russia can export.”