Today’s briefing:
— Biggest oil deal in history?
— Why the Iran war is back
— Cute child labour in Japan
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Biggest oil deal in history?
— Why the Iran war is back
— Cute child labour in Japan
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. I once saw a guy introduce a film while I was serving in Mexico City. His Spanish was so good, the local seated next to me breathlessly whispered, “¿quién es este gringo?”
That gringo was John Feeley, a senior US diplomat who ended up serving as ambassador to Panama before sensationally resigning during President Trump’s first term. And he’s been back on tape this month shedding more light on the why, including the president asking him, “what do we get from Panama?”
It wasn’t so much the single question, Feeley clarifies, as the transactional worldview behind it, arguably now back on display in Venezuela as Trump announces “the biggest oil deal in world history”. Shall we?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Quote of the day
“I am not sure that we will get such a clear warning shot before it’s too late.”
That’s Ajeya Cotra, one of the investigators into the OpenAI jailbreak that saw AI agents escape a training environment and hack Hugging Face. The report’s findings suggest the AI escape was even bigger — and more sophisticated — than first feared.
Lock, stock, and 65 Billion Barrels.
You'd think the weekend's biggest Venezuela news might've been ousted dictator Nicolás Maduro dropping some fresh jailhouse pics in his signature grey tracksuit, flashing double peace signs as his Manhattan trial creeps closer.
But never one to cede the front page, President Trump instead went ahead and announced "the biggest oil deal in world history":
In a nutshell, DC and Caracas say they're now launching a new joint venture covering 17 major oil fields in Venezuela, with the US controlling a claimed 55% (35% equity + 20% of output at cost).
The reported deal runs for a century, and covers a fifth of Venezuela's vast reserves — aka more than America's own entire proven book.
Why this deal?
Trump argues it’ll deliver cheaper pump prices and a replenished US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), without spending a single taxpayer cent.
And Venezuela's Delcy Rodriguez argues the deal will attract $100B in capital to revive her country's decrepit oil infrastructure, then another $209B in state revenues "at the service of national development" once that extra oil starts flowing.
So... sounds like a win-win. Where's the but?
First, the details are thinner than a jailed ex-dictator: while Trump says the deal will run for a century, Delcy just went on national TV to insist it’s only for 25 years.
Plus Trump insists he's not using taxpayer cash, while Delcy insists there's now $100B en route. So... who's actually paying to rebuild Venezuela's equipment?
The idea seems to be that, under the umbrella of US guarantees, it'll now be easier for everyone to mobilise the necessary capital. But that takes us to...
Second, who's actually involved from the US? Intriguingly, the Pentagon's Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) is in the mix: that’s the Biden-era shop meant to step in where market failures leave US supply chains exposed (eg, to China's state-backed dominance of critical mineral processing).
So the OSC's presence here seems to implicitly acknowledge that, for all the DC bluster, US oil majors still see Venezuela as un-investible. And the OSC’s natsec angle is the right to buy the extra crude at cost, both for a) those depleted SPR caves down on the Gulf, and b) US military uses.
Third, as for the deal’s lead in Venezuela? It's not a government agency, nor even Venezuela's state-owned oil giant PDVSA. Rather, it's a 46-year-old guy called Alejandro Betancourt López — he's a classic bolichico (Bolivarian kid), which is local slang for young tycoons who got rich off Chavez-era state contracts.
Young Ale’ controls NABEP, which is Venezuela's second-largest private producer after Chevron. And he seems to have landed this plum deal because...
a) his NABEP has a record of scaling output (with US partners) when others won’t
b) he's a rare insider willing to work with both Caracas and DC, and...
c) US pressure seems to have eased Swiss and Spanish probes into his alleged money-laundering (which he denies, though both probes are still live).
Then fourth, the whole thing has triggered legit political backlash: old school Chavistas are outraged at what they see as a betrayal to US imperialism, with mock posts already dubbing her new joint venture 'PDUSA' (a pun on the state-owned PDVSA). Maybe they’re also a tad jelly that someone else now gets the plundering?
Meanwhile, pro-democracy opposition figures somehow now agree with their old Chavista foes because, absent a credible election or legislative scrutiny, Delcy has zero real authority to now be handing the Americans a century-long oil deal.
And the highest-profile opposition figure of them all — Nobel laureate Maria Machado — seems stuck in silence, perhaps because she's just spent the last year pitching US investors on Venezuela’s pro-business future, only to see free-market auctions get swapped out for a murky middle-man in bed with pragmatic Chavistas.
Or perhaps it’s because Machado sees no democratic future for Venezuela without US backing for credible elections, and yet this oil deal seemingly gives the US a big reason to just extend the unelected status quo rather than roll the dice on some future leader (like her) who'd be highly likely to just hit ctrl-z on this entire deal.
Intrigue’s Take
One driver here seems to be…
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Intrigue’s Take
One driver here seems to be lowering pump prices, presumably ahead of America's high-stakes November midterms. But the rusty reality of Venezuela's infrastructure is that no tweet can realistically ramp output up enough to meaningfully ease US prices.
So while we await any pros, it's worth a look at the potential US cons in this deal.
One is that such a seemingly transactional, self-interested arrangement just risks validating those already sceptical of US power and motives. Not just in Venezuela (where there are baby Trumps named in gratitude for Maduro's ouster), nor just in the region (already seeing this as very Donroe Doctrine-coded), but everywhere.
But while we're in Venezuela, another cost is the extent to which this deal risks planting the seeds for Delcy's own demise — she's potentially now triggered the one thing that's evaded Venezuelan politics for generations: unity. Whether it's loyalist hold-outs like Diosdado (the powerful interior minister), or pro-democracy voices like Machado, they’d all now have a pretty compelling pitch when courting votes or putschists: back me, and I will ditch this deal.
But Delcy is hardly a noob, and is probably banking on one thing: any rivals know she's still Venezuela's only line to the one capital that yeeted her boss into a US jail in January. Plus as unappealing as this deal might be for hardliners, she's also the only thing standing between them and an elected government that'd more likely yoink their villas and indict their families. So in that hierarchy, maybe stomaching this new 'PDUSA' is cheaper than the alternative. That’d certainly explain her party’s limp statement of support, plus the mocking local responses it garnered online.
But speaking of cheaper than the alternative, that's also how we think about Trump's calculus here: ie, perhaps the mess of doing this deal seems cheaper than the alternative — whether midterms with no gas story except Iran, or a regional vacuum in which Beijing again taps the world’s largest proven reserves while Exxon stays home.
Sound even smarter:
America’s SPR is now at around 41% capacity, near 1980s lows.
Venezuela is reportedly considering exiting OPEC, in a possible two-fer for DC: the above deal (theoretically) expands US supply, while Venezuela’s departure from OPEC would further weaken the price-setter (which Venezuela co-founded).
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN — Strike in the Strait.
The US just carried out its first known strike on Iranian territory in more than a month, hitting what it says were preparations to launch sea mines into a Hormuz shipping lane the US had just cleared. In response, Iran’s revolutionary guards claimed strikes on US bases in Jordan and the UAE, though local authorities are denying any hits. (Reuters)
Comment: It’s a reminder that, while the US warns of an economic D-Day, the kinetic bit of this war is still live. We also see this as an example of what might be the new status quo: talks, posturing, strikes, reset. Interestingly, Iran’s supreme leader issued (if he’s alive) a letter the same day urging Gulf monarchs to “know your real enemy” (the US and Israel), which feels a bold messaging pivot after all the Iranian hits across the Gulf, and we do wonder if it reflects a dash of regime pressure and isolation.
🇳🇵 NEPAL — Rescue operations continue.
Authorities in Nepal are intensifying efforts to reach hundreds of people thought to be trapped in hydropower tunnels after last week’s disaster. The number of missing has doubled to 4,200 since Sunday, while the death toll has jumped to 900. Meanwhile, China’s authorities in Tibet have released their first official estimates, confirming over 500 missing and 16 dead. (BBC)
🇰🇵 NORTH KOREA — New Kim on the block.
Local despot Kim Jong Un has appointed former military political chief Kim Song-gi as his new defence minister, sending the outgoing No Kwang-chol to instead head up Kim’s powerful munitions department. (Reuters)
Comment: This probably isn’t a real demotion for No — that’d be the firing squad. Rather, it looks like Kim is trying to kill two birds: reinforce ideological control, while doubling down on the arms production and sales to Putin now keeping North Korea’s economy unusually buoyant.
🇮🇸 ICELAND — No thanks.
More than 52% of voters in Iceland just opted not to reopen accession talks with the EU. (Guardian)
Comment: This was just a vote on whether to even have the conversation, but Icelanders seem to like the status quo which — let’s be clear — is already very EU-ish: they’ve got the single market and Schengen, plus sovereign control of their own fisheries. Still, it’s a loss for Brussels, which would’ve welcomed a ‘yes’ as evidence of the bloc’s continued appeal, rather than the risk that this ‘no’ now further emboldens Europe’s eurosceptics.
🇵🇼 PALAU— Forum friction.
A handful of last-minute withdrawals has thrown the annual Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) leader summit into turmoil, with Fiji, Vanuatu, Samoa, Kiribati, and Solomon Islands all sending lower-ranked reps — the latter had to fly home amid a no-confidence ambush in parliament. (RNZ)
Comment: Per his reputation, New Zealand’s foreign minister (Winston Peters) said the quiet bit out loud, suggesting “you’d be defying gravity and logic” to rule out foreign interference here. He’s referring to speculation that, given Taiwan-aligned Palau is hosting this summit, China might’ve pushed Beijing-aligned Kiribati to skip it, and could’ve even nudged Beijing-friendly lawmakers in the Solomons to mount the conveniently-timed ambush that forced the PM home. Pending further info, it all risks eroding one of the PIF’s strongest assets (unity), and distracting from the issues these Islands want to tackle (energy, deep-sea mining, and China’s shock nearby ICBM test last month.
🇳🇪 NIGER — Attempted coup thwarted.
The ruling military junta says it’s now re-imposed order after putschist soldiers attempted to storm the presidential palace and Niamey’s main airport in an attempted coup. (France24)
Comment: The junta that ousted the last government to “restore security” against jihadis just relied on Russian muscle to fend off yet another generation of putschists. This is the airport’s third major incident this year after ISIS in January and JNIM in June. You can see some of the panic in the neighbours, with regional power Algeria already sending air support.
🇰🇭 CAMBODIA — Problem solved (?)
The Cambodian government summoned 50 foreign diplomats to insist there are no longer any scam compounds operating in the country, thanks to a coordinated crackdown and slew of high-profile arrests. (Al Jazeera)
Comment: We’re not sceptics by nature, but the government itself admits that all the scamming work has now just moved into condos and coffee shops.
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly round-up of the world’s lighter news
An Egyptian gang has pulled off a ‘Fast & Furious’-style heist, stealing frozen chicken from a moving truck.
Amid escalating US-Canada trade tensions, Ottawa city is considering renaming Trump Avenue to other options including ‘Taco Avenue’ and ‘Obama Avenue’.
The next ‘Le Mans Asia’ season will now be held entirely in Europe.
South Korea is launching a dating show with AI chatbots.
And Gandalf-dressed protesters have gathered outside the Buenos Aires home of US tech tycoon Peter Thiel to demonstrate against his growing local role.
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Castle of the day
Credits: @oricon via Twitter/X
According to Greek mythology, Sisyphus was condemned to push a boulder up a hill for eternity as punishment for cheating the gods. So we’re left wondering what the good people of Hirosaki, Japan, did to end up pulling an entire castle by hand?
Hundreds of schoolchildren just spent their weekend taking turns lining up along 30m (~100ft) ropes attached to a 400-tonne Hirosaki Castle.
Their goal? Pull the old landmark back to its original position after decade-long repairs.
Their method? It’s called hikiya — the ancient Japanese trick of moving entire buildings on rollers rather than risk dismantling any wooden treasures.
Their result? After some strenuous schoolkid heaving, the castle moved 27cm (almost a foot).
But lest you think this is a child labour scoop, more than 8,000 adults volunteered for just 1,800 volunteer slots in this civic ritual across August, before machines cover the remaining 73m (240ft) from September.
Today’s poll
Do you think this US-Venezuela oil deal will work?
Last week’s poll: Why do you think Ratcliffe went to Moscow?
🛑 To warn Putin not to escalate (36%)
🕊️ To revive peace talks (5%)
🇮🇷 To push Putin on Iran (55%)
⛓️ To advance prisoner talks (4%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (1%)
Your two cents:
🇮🇷 R.S: “Trump had totally lost interest in Ukraine. Today his only interest is to declare asap ‘victory’ regarding Iran.”
🛑 J: “Open warning that had to be visible.”
✍️ L.U.L: “There is something far more sinister; the plot thickens.”
PS — quick shout-out to group-chat members ‘A’ (Shale of the Century) and ‘RH’ (Lock, Stock, and 65 Billion Barrels) for today’s titles 😄. Become an Insider and join the chat!