Today’s briefing:
— The geopolitics of Trump’s birthday
— Wanna work in Nauru?
— How to get a free TV in Argentina
Your Insider’s briefing:
— The geopolitics of Trump’s birthday
— Wanna work in Nauru?
— How to get a free TV in Argentina
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Now that I’m in my 40s, I treat birthdays like minor software updates: let each one happen quietly overnight, then maybe wake up with new features I didn’t want — perhaps a sore shoulder or better wine taste.
But should we get you briefed on who wished President Trump a happy 80th, and why?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
⚽ PS — 1,000 Intriguers entered our World Cup prediction tournament hoping to win a free year of Insiders. And judging by how many picked Spain to win, Cape Verde’s historic upset must have you a tad nervous? We’ll announce the winners in July!
Number of the day
15.4°C (59.7°F)
That’s the highest June temperature ever recorded on the Antarctic Peninsula earlier this month, a full 20°C (36°F) above the usual early winter average.
Paaaaaaarty in the USA.
It was Seinfeld who famously quipped about the similarities between life’s earlier and later birthdays: either way, “you just kind of sit there, you don’t know what’s going on, people have to help you blow out the candles, you don’t even know why you’re there.”
But not Donald Trump, who just became history’s second US president (after Biden) to turn 80 in office. So rather than recap the UFC spectacle on the White House lawn (basically everyone got stoppage-mogged fyi), we’ll take you on a quick tour of the world leaders who wished POTUS a happy birthday and why, starting with…
🇷🇺 Vladimir Putin
The Russian leader went out of his way to be Trump’s first birthday caller, laying on the charm (“bright, remarkable person”) while agreeing to host US envoys Witkoff and Kushner again. Why? Ego-stroking is free and effective, and keeping the Trump-envoy channel open helps sideline more traditional State Department channels appalled by Putin’s war.
The timing also works: the call came just as Trump was announcing his Iran deal, and just before he was due in France for the G7 summit, all potentially auguring bad news for Putin via lower oil prices and a less distracted West. Hence Putin’s rush to call.
But there’s a deeper irony here: in gutting US support for Ukraine in hopes to force a deal, Trump has now eroded America’s own leverage as Ukrainians just build more of their own arms instead. The result is that while Putin was still busy buttering up a US president, Ukraine was busy severing Putin’s few remaining supply routes to occupied Crimea.
And then came the call from…
🇺🇦 Volodymyr Zelensky
Zelensky also laid on the charm (he’s no idiot), but paired his thanks with updates on how Ukraine is turning battlefield momentum back in its own favour — Trump likes winners.
Interestingly, Zelensky apparently made no mention of his recent letter asking to *buy* more US air defence to thwart Putin’s attacks on Ukrainian cities — presumably he figured best to keep the call positive, then save any asks for their G7 meeting in-person.
And yet… Zelensky is busy hedging against US disengagement here too, with a Ukrainian-built interceptor (the Pokrov) already entering service at one-tenth the price of a Patriot.
But is there a deeper irony again? Trump lands as the G7’s “talk to both sides” statesman, while pointing to Ukraine’s battlefield wins as vindication of his hands-off approach.
Now it’s time to stroll over to the presidential fax machine to hear from…
🇰🇿 Kassym-Jomart Tokayev
The Kazakh president chose a telegram (those are still a thing?) to greet POTUS, partly just as routine “don’t ignore the big man” diplomacy in Central Asia. But it’s also more:
Kazakhstan is in a tough neighbourhood (Russia, China, Iran) and has been quietly positioning itself as a reliable Central Asia partner for the US, including by joining Trump’s Abraham Accords with Israel. And the US has in turn seen opportunities across rare earths and energy transit, while parrying China’s parallel moves into Russia’s erstwhile backyard.
Now fire up your 2010-era desktop PC to hear from…
🇵🇭 Bongbong Marcos Jr.
Facebook is still big in the Philippines, which might explain why President Marcos Jr used it to send Trump some birthday love. We wonder if Marcos only did so after getting one of those classic FB notifications, like “it’s Donald’s birthday, why not send him a message!”
But what’s Bongbong’s angle? Recall he’s under pressure on every side right now:
At home, he’s juggling earthquake disaster response, spiralling energy costs, and a political revolt from his own veep that risks splitting the country in two, while…
Abroad, China is still testing his red lines in the South China Sea, sanctioning his defence minister + family, and deploying a strange new floating platform (with antenna and personnel!) inside the disputed Scarborough Shoal lagoon.
So for one of America’s more exposed allies, a quick FB greeting was partly a low-lift way to remind his foes (at home and beyond) who’s theoretically in his corner.
Then for the last one, stroll with us down to the White House mailroom to hear from…
🇩🇪 Frank-Walter Steinmeier
That’s Germany’s president, a mostly ceremonial role, which means he has time to pen a personal letter featuring references to Trump’s own German grandfather. But speaking of Grandpa Trump, Germany’s day-to-day leader (Chancellor Merz) also not only handwrote a letter (must be a German thing?) but also rocked up to the G7 with a gift!
While the rest of the table presumably seared Merz with the classic “I thought we weren’t doing presents” energy (like showing up at a kid’s party empty-handed while one dad rolls in with a PS5), the US president received a gilded copy of his grandfather’s birth certificate.
Why? It’s a nice gesture. But the underlying message here is that, with US-Europe ties in disarray, maybe some shared heritage can provide a bit of ballast. Maybe.
Intrigue’s Take
We don’t just skate across a few birthday greetings for the laughs, but rather because they reveal three big things about where our world is headed. First…
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Sound even smarter:
Trump’s various other congratulatory messages came from Israel’s Netanyahu, Hungary’s ousted Orban, Fiji’s Rabuka, and beyond.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN — $300B for your troubles.
Much as we foreshadowed, Sunday’s big peace deal news is now giving way to mutual recriminations on the details: Hezbollah has claimed hits on Israeli forces in Lebanon; the US is seemingly mulling a Gulf-funded $300B reconstruction fund for Iran; and outlets claim CIA boss John Ratcliffe has (like us) been sceptical about any Iranian nuclear concessions at all. (The Hill)
Comment: Aside from the plausibility of Gulf partners ponying up $300B for a neighbour who just caused them billions in damages amid a US-Israeli war, it all feels like a Trump 2.0 hope that sheer dealery might be enough to steamroll out of this mess and off towards the midterms. There’s still a real chance this whole thing ends up less a durable peace, and more a 60-day timeout (if that).
🇯🇵 JAPAN — 31-year high.
Japan’s central bank has raised its main rate to 1%, which will sound low for many foreigners but is actually Japan’s highest since 1995 after decades of post-bubble deflation. Successive governments have wielded the reform wand to reflate the economy, but Hormuz-linked inflation has been the proximate cause this time. (JapanTimes)
🇨🇳 CHINA — Is this a domestic recession?
Fresh data suggests China just recorded its first YoY drop in retail sales since 2022, while fixed asset investment also contracted by a worse-than-expected 4.0%. (WSJ $)
Comment: It all paints a picture of slowing domestic demand, leaving China’s growth increasingly reliant on an export wave that continues to rattle partners. It also suggests whatever consumption-rebalance Beijing is trying isn’t working. So markets continue to hope China will unleash a stimulus bazooka at next month’s Politburo, but we’ve heard that before, and Xi’s options still seem vexed: he dislikes household transfers and has long been sceptical of social safety nets, but is already racking up huge debts and presumably fears the politics of letting things slow down. The only thing that’s different this time is the sharpness in his statistical bureau’s words: “the domestic imbalance between strong supply and weak demand is acute.”🔥
🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM — No tweets for you, kids.
Prime Minister Starmer has announced the UK’s own social media ban for under-16s, going further than Australia’s world-first by extending Britain’s restrictions to also cover gaming and livestreaming sites. (No. 10)
Comment: It’s already unleashing a familiar debate, with parents ~90% in favour, while Big Tech again warns it’ll just drive kids to darker e-corners. The Australian experience suggests this is less about 100% effectiveness, and more about shifting the Overton window away from *whether* to protect kids online, to how. Standing up to American Big Tech might also give Starmer a much needed Love Actually moment.
🇸🇬 SINGAPORE — Mayors, unite.
Prime Minister Wong has used his World Cities Summit host duties to announce a new fellowship bringing mayors together in Singapore. (CNA)
Comment: These city-to-city initiatives are more in vogue as country-to-country diplomacy falters, but it’s interesting to see Singapore reassert itself here, doubling down on its preferred hedging strategy as the world’s indispensable neutral broker.
🇭🇹 HAITI — Even the chiefs aren’t safe.
Unknown armed men have kidnapped top Haitian security official and respected professor James Boyard, along with his wife and six-year-old daughter (a US citizen). (Miami Herald)
Comment: When even the guy literally in charge of fixing Haiti’s beleaguered security apparatus gets snatched from the capital’s streets in broad daylight, it’s a brutal reminder of how deeply Haiti’s gangs have hollowed out the state. Maybe the involvement of a young US citizen will shine a renewed light on Haiti’s plight?
🇰🇪 KENYA — 11th time lucky.
The 11th Our Ocean Conference kicks off in Kenya’s Mombasa today (Tuesday), the global event’s first-ever iteration on African soil. (Oceanographic Magazine)
Comment: The thousands of speakers (like John Kerry), ministers, officials, researchers, and investors are there to push progress on things like the new High Seas Treaty, marine protection areas, and illegal fishing. Kenya’s move to host looks like another attempt to shift from attendee to agenda-setter, and establish itself as a hub.
Extra Intrigue
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Rejection of the day
Pics from Noblex’s Insta
Getting your visa denied usually means a heady cocktail of crushed dreams and vague resentment. But if you’re an Argentine soccer fan hoping to see Lionel Messi make his final World Cup appearance and lead the defending champs to yet another dose of FIFA gold? Any visa rejection probably feels like getting excommunicated from Sunday Mass, or barred from your own wedding.
So we could only chuckle when a local electronics brand (Noblex) turned those visa lemons into FIFA lemonade, offering a free 32-inch TV for the first 100 fans who presented proof of a visa rejection, so they can watch Messi from home instead!
The red sticker above says Visa Denied, while the blue one declares Noblex TV Approved.
Today’s poll
Would you support an age limit for world leaders?
Yesterday’s poll: Who do you think most 'won' the US-Iran war?
🇺🇸 The US (19%)
🇮🇷 Iran (78%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
🇮🇷 J.P: “Being able to say ‘the biggest country in the world attacked me and I'm still here’ is one of the biggest medals you can get as a regime.”
🇺🇸 D.A: “Iran’s missiles are almost depleted, the nuke facilities are devastated, the proxies are barely existing, and Iran does not have the money to help.”
✍️ M.M: “China is the ultimate winner here (controls about 80% of renewable energy production & manufacturing, per the IEA). Even if this agreement holds, damage to oil infrastructure means it could take years to reach pre-war levels of petroleum output globally. Nations are clamouring for renewables to diversify their energy mix, that isn't going to change now.”
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