Today’s briefing:
— Did Trump get what he wanted?
— A coup-plotting priest
— World’s all-time greatest U-turn
Sponsored by:
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. It’s hard to think of another multilateral organisation that’s had as big of a relevance ‘comeback’ in recent years as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The Russo-Ukraine war hurled the group into the spotlight back in 2022, and there it’s remained.
During its years in the international spotlight, NATO has leveled up. Most of its members have upped their contributions (after US cajoling), and it’s leaned heavily into strategic innovation and funding deep tech for national security through venture capital.
What’s reassuring to know is that even with the higher stakes, members are still delivering some unintentional lols at the 2025 NATO Summit, which we’ll dive into today.
P.S. — Apparently folks can now make fuel from thin air? Terraform Industries is already doing it, and founder (plus fellow Intriguer) Casey Handmer will share how, via our next virtual briefing on July 10, fresh from appearances in The Economist, Stratechery, and beyond. Join us here!
Number of the day
$154.31
That’s the record-high price Nvidia’s stock reached on Wednesday, rising over 4% and making the chipmaker the largest company in the world by market cap (again).
Summit season continues
World leaders just wrapped another summit, but this time it was NATO’s turn in The Hague. So here are the three quotes you need to know:
"Thank you for your decisive action in Iran... it makes us all safer" - NATO chief Mark Rutte sent this via text to President Trump
Ever screenshotted something then accidentally sent it right back to the original sender? Uff, so awkward — who were you planning on sharing that with? Well Mark Rutte (the former Dutch leader and now NATO secretary-general) need not wonder, because President Trump went ahead and tweeted Marky-Mark’s private text to the whole world.
But did that text actually reveal anything new? It arguably just confirmed two things we already knew:
a) This is why the world calls Rutte ‘the Trump whisperer’ — he’s unafraid to be the president’s hype-man, whether on Iran or NATO spending, so long as…
b) It helps ensure continued US engagement in a turbulent world, at least until Europe can re-arm.
And while having his private text tweeted will have been awkward (though many European leaders might quietly cede point a above), Rutte’s play might’ve worked: at the post-summit presser, President Trump called the gathering “tremendous”, praised allies for stepping up, and reiterated that NATO ain’t NATO without America.
But why exactly was he so happy…?
"Allies commit to invest 5% of GDP annually on core defence requirements as well as defence-and security-related spending by 2035" - Joint Declaration
While this year's declaration only had five points (versus 38 last year), that 5% spending target seems like a big one, covering 3.5% for the classics (troops, tanks, jets) and 1.5% for military adjacent spending like relevant infrastructure.
But, there’s a catch:
Not everyone’s on board: Spain’s PM is capping his spending at 2.1%, and others like Belgium and Slovakia don’t seem convinced either. So, the final text fudged it, writing that “allies” committed to 5%, not every ally. Yes, a little like how one Homer was still technically allowed in the No Homers Club.
As for Ukraine: NATO recycled its old promise about Kyiv being on an “irreversible” (if also never-ending) path towards membership.
And speaking of Ukraine…
"We are facing a network of state and non-state actors that are serving the cause of aggression... This network includes Russia, North Korea, the current regime in Iran, Chinese companies" Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
This caught our eye as one of the few mentions China got during the summit, compared to last year’s spicy references to China as challenging "our interests, security and values", amid DC’s ongoing push to re-focus on the Indo-Pacific.
We also couldn’t help but notice that leaders of Indo-Pacific allies like Japan, Korea, and Australia ended up skipping this NATO summit (they were — with New Zealand — invited as NATO’s ‘P4’ partners in Asia). But we’d be wary of jumping to any conclusions here.
Rather, it’s all probably a reflection that a) this summit focused on immediate crises, b) the agenda was short and sharp to avoid rocking things with a sceptical US president, and c) those three Indo-Pacific allies have their own urgent priorities calling back home.
Intrigue’s Take
So… was this NATO Summit a success?
The big 5% target seems splashy, until it quickly fades across a) a broad definition of what defence spending even is, and b) the classic ‘no Homers’ definition of who actually needs to do it. So we might see a continuation of recent trends, with those NATO members nearest Russia ramping up their defence spending because they feel they must, while those farther afield (like Spain) take their time because they feel they can.
The other moment of doubt happened before the summit even kicked off, when President Trump quipped “depends on your definition” when asked by reporters on Air Force One whether the US remained committed to NATO’s Article 5 pledge on collective defence. The president later reaffirmed US commitment, but it still rattled some capitals.
So it’s against that backdrop that maybe we conclude with one line that features in NATO’s 2025 declaration, as it has done for decades. But this time, given the world we’re in, its mere inclusion might now be a NATO success in and of itself:
"An attack on one is an attack on all."
Today’s newsletter is sponsored by The Hustle
There’s a breezy, 5-minute morning read that keeps you sharp on everything business and tech. The Hustle covers stories that matter to consumers, and summarizes the fascinating rabbit holes you don’t have time to sift through yourself. 1.5M+ people get the daily in their inbox to stay informed, and have some fun.
Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES - Schrodinger’s nukes.
Responding to initial leaks to the contrary, US spymaster Tulsi Gabbard now says “Iran’s nuclear facilities have been destroyed”. President Trump himself briefly suggested the intel was “inconclusive” before again reiterating the hits were decisive. Meanwhile, Iran’s messaging has ranged from dismissing any claims of damage, to threatening legal action over the “badly damaged” sites. (The Hill)
Comment: Iran’s mixed messaging probably reflects a) their own uncertainty around what actually remains under Fordow mountain, and b) an attempt to balance domestic bravado with international leverage.
🇺🇦 UKRAINE - Trump to revamp military support?
Following a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart at NATO, the US president has said he’s now considering providing (possibly selling) Ukraine more Patriot missiles to help defend against Putin’s attacks. He’s also showed a flash of frustration towards Putin, arguing the Russian president “really has to end that war”. (ABC)
🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM - Shell in talks to buy BP?
There are reports Dutch oil giant Shell is in early talks to buy British rival BP, in a deal for the ages. Shell has denied the reports (but it would, wouldn’t it?). (WSJ $)
Comment: It’s been a rough couple of years for BP, with falling oil prices, external shocks (Russia), and strategic missteps (critics say it misread the energy transition). That all helped gut BP’s market cap, leaving it vulnerable to a buyout.
🇧🇷 BRAZIL - Putin and XI no-shows at BRICS.
Russia’s Vladimir Putin won’t attend next month’s BRICS summit in Rio, citing his ICC warrant as the hurdle (Brazil would be obliged to arrest him). Interestingly, China’s Xi Jinping will also skip the summit for the first time. (Moscow Times)
Comment: Sure, it's hard to talk up BRICS when one founding member fears setting foot in the territory of another. But the more interesting absence for us is Xi — he’s blaming a scheduling conflict, but we suspect it could (among other factors) be a preference not to play Scottie Pippen to India’s Michael Jordan, given only India’s Narendra Modi scored a Brazilian invite to a full state dinner after the summit.
🇦🇲 ARMENIA - Archbishop arrested over coup plot!
Authorities have arrested a prominent Armenian Apostolic archbishop and 13 others on claims they were plotting a coup with 1,000 former soldiers and police. The cleric says these are political charges to punish him for opposing the West-leaning PM’s policies, like territorial concessions to Azerbaijan. (France24)
Comment: Things are getting wild in Armenia, and they’ll get wilder in the lead-up to elections next year. One of the ironies is that opposition to the PM partly stems from his territorial losses to Azerbaijan, which were enabled by Russia abandoning Armenia. And yet the result, theoretically, could be a more Russia-friendly leader winning next year’s elections, though no single frontrunner has emerged.
🇹🇻 TUVALU - A mistaken US travel ban?
The US has reportedly added the Pacific Island nations of Tuvalu, Tonga, and Vanuatu to a travel ban list, though tiny Tuvalu now says it’s received verbal confirmation it’s all a mistake. Vanuatu might be on the list because it still runs a controversial citizenship-by-investment scheme. (The Diplomat)
🇿🇲 ZAMBIA - Court halts burial of ex-leader.
A South African court has halted the impending burial of former Zambian leader Edgar Lungu after receiving a last-minute repatriation request from the Zambian government. Zambia argues Lungu should be laid to rest at its official burial place for former heads of state, regardless of any family preferences. (Africa News)
Extra Intrigue
In other worlds…
Society: Squillionaire Jeff Bezos has had to shift wedding venues after Venice locals started protesting.
Tech: A US judge has sided with Anthropic over its use of published books to train its AI without author permission.
Science: Researchers have found E. coli bacteria can turn plastic into a common painkiller.
Flight of the day
Credits: Flightradar24
Remember the ol’ proverb? Wherever you go, there you are. It’s a reminder that, wherever you go, you can’t escape yourself. Diplomats feel the need to learn this the hard way.
And passengers onboard Qantas flight 33 from Perth to Paris kinda just learned it their own hard way too, after spending 15 hours in the air only to land right back where they started. Why? Iran’s highly telegraphed missile launches at the US airbase in Qatar meant the airspace ahead suddenly closed up, forcing this Dreamliner’s captain to pull one of the world’s all-time great U-turns. Ding. Gonna need another moist towelette.
Today’s poll
Do you think Ukraine will ever be part of NATO?
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think conflict is over-reported in the media?
📰 Yes, it drowns out everything else (57%)
💥 No, it naturally draws attention (40%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
📰 N: “It becomes too overwhelming, desensitizing, depressing.”
💥 D.A: “Why should the media be different than anyone else? Conflict draws attention. The media reports stories that have people's attention.”
📰 R.D: “Sensationalism and fearmongering drives traffic. Conflicts can and should be reported, but in context and with critical analysis, like International Intrigue!” [Editor’s note - Don’t make us blush! ☺️]
✍️ P.T: “The question is how much conflict itself is intensified by over-reporting.”