Today’s briefing:
— Did Trump fix Venezuela?
— This country wants snakes for border security
— New food fight just dropped
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. As the great American philosopher Rebecca Black once observed, “it’s Friday”. So I’ll share this quick true tale:
The same year I was in Venezuela learning my Spanish, Hugo Chavez had to make an emergency landing in his presidential chopper, and ended up standing atop a mountain slope just west of Caracas.
This was back in 2006, when a historic oil boom meant Chavez could just do things. And do them, he did: Chavez liked the look of that hill, so promptly declared it would become an entirely new utopian city called Caribia, featuring modern apartments, free utilities, and gleaming communal spaces, all fuelled by the revolutionary spirit and $140 per barrel oil.
Of course oil then crashed, Chavez died, and Maduro drove the economy off a cliff. Visit Caribia now and you’ll feel an eerie atmosphere of empty boulevards, incomplete infrastructure, and crime-rattled residents amid the surrounding hills. It’s long been a symbol of the perennial, yawning gap between Venezuela’s promise and reality.
So it’s with Caribia in mind that we return to Venezuela today to ask: is it investible yet?
Time of the day
5pm ET Thursday
That’s when the new Trump-announced Israel-Lebanon ceasefire entered force for 10 days. Keep an eye on whether Hezbollah will respect a deal it didn’t negotiate, and whether this truce paves the way for a broader US-Iran deal. We explored this dynamic here.
The old guard.
It’s been 104 days since the US Delta Force made their Caracas cameo to end Nicolás Maduro’s disastrous 13 years in power. How disastrous? Credible polling shows 92% (!) of locals feel gratitude towards the US, and 80% expect better conditions within the year.
But somehow, what we thought would be the defining geopolitical event of 2026, already seems like a quaint bake sale, so it’s worth a super quick return trip to Venezuela.
Starting with… what’s changed?
There’ve been three big signals out of the economy:
First, Spanish oil giant Repsol just signed a deal to regain control of its local assets, after Trump’s maximum pressure strategy revoked its general license to operate last year.
It’s a big deal because…
a) Repsol was one of the few majors to maintain a Venezuelan footprint through the Chavez-Maduro chaos, so it’s well placed to now deliver on its big pledge to ramp output back up by 50% within a year, and triple it within three years. And…
b) It sends a big signal of Venezuela’s reopening: this is a major European player returning with full operational control under US-approved licenses.
Second, this big Repsol news came on the back of some big, rapid reforms. Barely 26 days after Maduro’s removal, Venezuela’s US-pressured legislature moved to allow…
Private / foreign players back into the upstream (exploration, extraction)
Private partners to sell their crude directly rather than via state control, and
New options for international mediation if something goes wrong, rather than remaining at the mercy of local loyalist-stacked courts.
And third, some of the above changes are already bearing fruit, with Venezuela’s oil output now back above 1.2 million barrels per day. By way of context, it was ~3.5 million pre-Chavez, and ~1.1 million in 2025 (though went as low as 0.35 million under Maduro).
Meanwhile, Venezuela’s GDP growth could now clock in at 12%, inflation is slowing (though still at 600%!), and folks are still optimistic despite not yet feeling the benefits.
The hope is the other US-approved majors (Chevron, Shell, BP, Eni, plus Exxon already semi-there) might likewise now pile back in to develop the world’s largest reserves, while Venezuela’s later big batch of reforms replicates these wins in the mining sector.
But (always the but), Repsol included a caveat bigger than Mark Zuckerberg’s $300M Hawaii mega-mansion — it’s all assuming “the necessary conditions remain in place” 👀.
And that brings us to…
What’s not changed?
Venezuela’s interim leader Delcy Rodríguez (Maduro’s #2) has freed political prisoners, and ousted some Maduro generals, but that’s really just to bolster her own grip on power:
The prisoner releases keep DC happy, and
The loyalist purge dissuades a coup by Maduro holdovers.
So… while there’s now a more US-compliant leader at the top, the underlying state apparatus hasn’t really moved an inch. KFC with a new CEO is still KFC, right? The regime’s colectivo thugs are still roaming the streets on motorbikes, and Rodríguez is still refusing to utter the word ‘elections’, despite she and Maduro losing bigly in 2024.
So sure… Venezuelans are hopeful, output is rising, and another oil major has returned. But with the same underlying regime still intact, DC’s big bet still seems to be that the economic benefits can outrun any of the political repression.
Intrigue’s Take
One of the most interesting voices on Venezuela’s dilemma has been pre-Chavez Venezuelan minister and now Harvard professor, Ricardo Hausmann. His basic argument is that friendlier oil rules are necessary but not sufficient to unleash his country’s potential.
For that, the people really need to have secure property rights protected by legitimate institutions — that’s what gives folks a stake in their own future, and helps (say) reverse the oil sector’s massive brain drain, while encouraging entrepreneurs to take risks. But in his view, without real elections, you don’t get legitimate institutions. And without legitimate institutions, no volume of legal tweaks can unlock Venezuela’s potential.
Extending this logic further, any oil boom could also theoretically just further enrich and entrench the same regime, delivering yet another false start for Venezuelans.
You know who else arguably agrees? Marco Rubio recently argued that “you cannot fix their economy if you don’t change their system of government.” Yes we’re being cheeky because he was referring to Cuba, but it’s hard not to draw some parallels here.
Sound even smarter:
The top US diplomat in Venezuela, Laura Dogu, is leaving her post four months after her appointment, to be replaced by John Barrett, US chargé in Guatemala.
Today’s briefing is presented by…
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇵🇭 PHILIPPINES — Pax Silica in Manila.
The Philippines has officially joined the US-led Pax Silica initiative, announcing plans for a major 4,000-acre Economic Security Zone — purportedly the first AI-native industrial hub under the pact. (US State Dept)
Comment: The Philippines is no stranger to big announcements that go nowhere, but it’s a possible win for Washington’s effort to build a China-free supply chain for critical minerals, semiconductors, and AI. As for the Philippines, this brings the promise of much-needed investment in high-tech manufacturing.
🇨🇳 CHINA — Yuan-ing for diversity.
Portugal has become the first eurozone country to issue bonds in offshore Chinese yuan (renminbi), raising ~$295M in an eight-year private placement. (Bloomberg $)
Comment: It’s small but symbolic: Portugal is tapping deeper into Chinese investment pools amid higher eurozone borrowing costs and quiet euro-hedging against over-reliance on traditional dollar markets. We explored similar petrodollar dynamics earlier this week.
🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM — Top diplomat out.
Britain’s top diplomatic official, with the very British name of Sir Olly Robbins, has been sacked amid reports his department overruled security vetting concerns to wave through Epstein associate Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the US. (BBC)
Comment: Again, Epstein-related heads continue to roll around the world, but… not so much in Epstein’s home country.
🇪🇺 EUROPEAN UNION — Euro summer?
The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that, with “six weeks or so” of jet fuel left, Europe will likely see flight disruptions if the US-Iran war continues. Germany's Lufthansa recently announced it’s grounding 27 planes. (NBC)
Comment: We wonder if this helps explain why several Europeans (like Germany) now seem to be reversing course on Hormuz, committing maritime resources to the region.
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Across party lines.
The US House has passed a bill to restore temporary protected status for Haitian immigrants, with the support of a handful of Republicans who defied the White House. (AP)
🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA — Out from down under.
A former US Marine pilot accused of illegally training China’s fighter pilots has lost his bid to avoid extradition to the US, though his family says he’ll appeal. (CBS)
Comment: Two lessons: this old case (from 2010-12) shows how aggressively the US is willing to pursue ex-servicemembers helping rivals, but it also shows how sensitive it considers some of the techniques (like carrier-landing) he allegedly shared.
🇹🇷 TURKEY — Rail-y good time.
Turkey, Syria, and Jordan have agreed to improve their respective rail lines in an effort to eventually link not just themselves, but all the way from Saudi Arabia to southern Europe. (Bloomberg $)
Comment: Even if still in the (very) early stages, this Turkey-driven project is another concrete sign of a) post-Assad Syria getting reintegrated into regional networks, but also b) Turkey never letting a good crisis go to waste: if geography is destiny, Turkey sure knows how to use it.
Extra Intrigue
Three stories we couldn’t shoehorn in this week 🥾
Officials in India are reportedly toying with the idea of releasing venomous snakes and crocodiles along the Bangladesh border to prevent criminal activity.
Journalists and accountability hawks are fighting to save the Internet Archive, a useful tool to track government websites across years and elections.
Speaking of internet records, an absolute nerd has logged thousands of historic, rare music concert hours. You’re welcome.
Dish of the day
A guaranteed way to trigger angry letters here at Intrigue is to weigh in on the centuries-old Turkey-Greece spat about… food!
Whether it’s baklava, boiled coffee, or borek, the emotions run high, with even neighbours like Armenia, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran weighing in with their own rival origin stories.
Well, Intriguers, it’s time to add a new dish to this spicy menu, and this time it’s a soup. Greece calls the above soup patsas, while Turkey calls it iskembe. And it’s now making the front pages because Greece wants to honour patsas as part of its UNESCO heritage, and you can imagine the uproar it’s causing among its Turkish neighbours.
You say börek, I say boureki, let’s call the whole thing off? (ps, we can confirm that, whatever the name, it’s delicious)
Friday Quiz
Test your knowledge of this week’s news! Or not. No problem either way.