Today’s briefing:
— Colombia’s knife-edge result
— China’s latest viral trend
— Mexico’s FIFA fans are doing what?
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Colombia’s knife-edge result
— China’s latest viral trend
— Mexico’s FIFA fans are doing what?
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Years ago Colombia ran one of its most successful tourism campaigns, basically flipping any fear into invitation. The tagline was “Colombia, where the only risk is wanting to stay”, but there was also a great line about how the local word for “stranger” also means “friend”.
Locals at the time feared the “risk” campaign might be a bit too spicy, but the numbers soon spoke for themselves, roughly tripling international arrivals in four years. So okay, good job marketing gurus.
But the thing I always loved about that campaign was the way it reflected a saying you’ll hear in Colombia pretty often: “No hay mal que por bien no venga” — there’s no bad from which good won’t come (a Spanish-language version of the classic ‘silver lining’ line).
Anyway, that’s on my mind as we explore yesterday’s record-breaking presidential election in Colombia, and some of the possible drama ahead.
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
6
That’s how many prime ministers the UK will have had in seven years, with Keir Starmer just announcing his resignation moments ago. More on that below.
Pendulum swing.
L-R: The left’s outgoing Petro, and the right’s incoming Tigre.
You could almost just look at those bold election day fashion choices above and get a vibe for what was at stake in Colombia's historic runoff yesterday (Sunday):
Outgoing leftist leader Gustavo Petro went full Bono-meets-pope, while
Celebrity lawyer Abelardo 'El Tigre' De La Espriella opted for patriotic playboy.
And let us tell you, dear Intriguer — those outfits weren't kidding. This was not a normal election. To the contrary, El Tigre’s win just made a bunch of history, starting with...
🤏 The tightest margin
At just 0.96%, voters delivered a margin eight times tighter than the polls were projecting after El Tigre's shock first-round win last month. In theory, a nail-biter can be healthy for a democracy. And sure, there are clear signs of vibrancy here, like...
🗳️ The most votes
Both El Tigre and Senator Cepeda (Petro's heir) won almost 13 million votes, smashing Petro's own most-votes record from 2022. And sure, when you've got a high-stakes race between two wildly different rivals pledging opposing visions for the future, it's no surprise when folks come out and duly smash Colombia’s turnout record, hitting 64%.
But it also reflects a record-breaking context, like...
📉 The lowest poverty
His fans might argue Petro should spend his remaining 47 days in power on a victory lap: under his watch, Colombia's poverty has dropped to its lowest in history (38% monetary, 9.9% multidimensional) amid higher wages, bigger pensions, and more subsidies*.
But of course, it's not all Colombiana and Chocoramo, because under Petro's attempt at 'total peace', Colombia has also now seen...
📈 Worse insecurity
Colombia's notorious armed groups have now ~doubled in size and homicides have hit their worst quarter in a decade. With poverty down but insecurity up, it might explain why most of Colombia's wealthier and safer heartland again voted right, while the poorer and more conflict-hit periphery voted left — everyone's voting to protect what they have.
But instead of taking a bow and exiting stage-left, Petro is now driving...
🥊 A rare disputed result
The outgoing leftist president has already declared "neither candidate can be proclaimed president", variously blaming software tampering, phantom voter IDs, and even... Israel! His evidence? Hah. But it's on-brand, both in terms of crying foul (he did it after the first round too), and blaming Israel (which he's long compared to Nazis over Gaza).
But while Petro dunks on the election result, he's hardly the only wildcard here because…
⚠️ Pre-election threat
Barely a day before voting started, El Tigre released an extraordinary statement (🇨🇴) warning Colombia's legislature not to "betray the will of the people" or they'll have to deal with a government "backed by millions of Colombians now done with being ignored". Translation? I'm going to win, so you better get onboard.
Instead, the message seems to have rattled many folks to switch their votes last-minute — like... okay, Petro is a loose unit, but can we trust El Tigre?
So… a few new records later, we now end up with a celebrity lawyer winning the weakest of mandates to run a divided country tackling the toughest of problems.
Intrigue’s Take
Headlines love a good ‘pink vs blue tide’ (left vs right) narrative — we humans froth over a simple and clear narrative to help make sense of this world. Plus the rage drives clicks.
But like any good diplomats, we Intriguers tend to be less interested in any partisan tide, and more in the…
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Bonus extra record: shout-out to Colombia’s electoral authorities, who managed to wrap the initial count of ~25+ million ballots in ~two hours!
*Roughly 75% of Colombian government debt is now held domestically, curbing the usual external vulnerabilities, though driving higher rates at home.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN — On again / off again.
The US and Iran have begun the next stage of talks in Switzerland, though the Iranians almost stormed home over the weekend after the US president dialled in to threaten them personally if the regime closes Hormuz again. Things then seem to have stabilised by this morning (Monday), with Pakistani and Qatari mediators claiming “encouraging progress” on the creation of a high-level committee to oversee the talks plus a new “deconfliction cell” in Lebanon. (NPR)
Comment: That progress is really just procedural (how to talk) rather than substantive (nukes, missiles, proxies, sanctions). But the whole episode has clarified the real power dynamics at play — Iran is using Hormuz as leverage to shield Hezbollah, which in turn gives Israel a ton of leverage over the entire deal — to kill a US-Iran deal they hate, the Israelis just have to keep hitting back at another weakened, mortal enemy right next door in Lebanon. So… what do you think they’ll do?
🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM — Starmer resigns.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced his resignation after a brutal weekend of party and public pressure. The trigger was Andy Burnham’s thumping by-election win in Makerfield, which has given the outgoing Manchester mayor a fast-track back into parliament as a clear challenger to the low-polling Starmer. (BBC)
Comment: Way back in 2024 (remember then?) we noted Starmer’s landslide win with a bit of caution: it wasn’t that Britain loved Starmer, so much as it was just exhausted by the Tories. So once again, the new face sold as the solution has quickly become the problem, and Britain’s revolving-door leadership cycle continues, while the structural headaches remain (stagnant growth, public services, immigration etc). The party picks its next leader within the coming weeks, likely landing on Burnham above, but other possibilities include Streeting (ex-minister) or Rayner (ex deputy PM). Can any of them avoid Starmer’s fate? One former PM (Sunak) just warned that “good communication is not enough. You need a clear plan from day one”.
🇮🇹 ITALY — Trouble in paradise.
There’s been a spectacular unravelling in the once-warm ties between Prime Minister Meloni and President Trump, after Trump questioned her approval ratings and insisted she had repeatedly “begged” for a G7 photo — Meloni responded with an angry video labelling it all BS, and declaring “Italy does not beg — ever.” (Ansa)
Comment: We saw the first cracks in Meloni-Trump ties when the US president started dunking on the pope earlier this year, but while the split makes for popcorn viewing, the key point to absorb here is that in this era of transactional and personal diplomacy, you’re now only ever a snide aside away from things getting messy.
🇯🇵 JAPAN — Visa fees quintuple.
Tokyo’s foreign ministry has announced Japan’s first visa fee hike since 1978, with foreigners paying a fivefold fee from July. (The Star)
Comment: In classically polite fashion, Japan’s statement refers obliquely to “inflation and exchange rate fluctuations” as the driver, but PM Takaichi rose to power (in part) by harnessing years of frustration at the volume and vibes of Japan’s soaring tourist numbers. So this looks more like delivering on a campaign commitment to keep her nationalist base happy.
🇧🇪 BELGIUM — NATO drops new nuke statement.
Gathering in Brussels, NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group just issued its first ministerial statement in nearly two decades, committing to modernise the alliance’s nuclear capabilities and strengthen its nuclear planning. (NATO)
Comment: In amongst our world’s wild headlines, it’s a quiet but significant shift away from the West’s post-Cold War ‘nuclear taboo’, and back to an explicit reaffirmation of nukes as the alliance’s “supreme guarantee”. It’s also an attempt at signalling strategic unity amid all the political turbulence (see Meloni-Trump above).
🇪🇹 ETHIOPIA — Abiy wins big.
After three weeks of counting, Abiy Ahmed’s ruling party has won another supermajority, claiming 90 of the seats declared so far. (Reuters)
Comment: We say ‘another’, but this one hits different — by skipping the vote in Ethiopia’s conflict zones of Tigray and parts of Amhara and Oromia, this supermajority risks hardening authoritarian drift and ethnic upheaval rather than solidifying any stability.
🇷🇺 RUSSIA — Fuel panic?
Per our warning on Friday, Putin-installed authorities in occupied Crimea have now suspended all civilian fuel sales amid an ongoing wave of Ukrainian hits on logistics. Meanwhile, Putin still hasn’t publicly commented on last week’s spectacular drone-strikes in Moscow, with his big troop build-up suggesting he instead hopes to answer by taking a key city (Kostyantynivka) in Ukraine’s Donbas. (Al Jazeera)
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly round-up of the world’s lighter news (FIFA edition!)
Jubilant Mexico fans are tossing news reporters up into the air on live TV.
The governor of Massachusetts has ‘legalised’ haggis (technically banned!) to welcome the Scottish team and fans to Boston.
While we’re there, Scottish fans have started putting traffic cones on statues.
Washington’s health officials are warning World Cup visitors that the state’s cannabis might be stronger than what they’re used to.
And US aviation authorities are warning World Cup visitors not to pack oversized bottles of ranch dressing in their carry-on.
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Shopping mall of the day
Pic courtesy of Yintai shopping mall.
Another day, another fun social media trend from beyond the Great Firewall.
This time it’s in the Global Yintai shopping mall in China’s Ningbo province, where 2,000 strangers — from young kids to retirees — sit silently at desks in a big pop-up classroom. Is it some kind of big time-share sales pitch, perhaps?
Nope. It’s a stealth eating competition!
The challenge is to secretly eat a bowl of paofan (rice porridge) ASAP before getting caught by a ‘teacher’. In the first iteration, a local 30-year-old guy emerged on top thanks to his “fast, accurate, and steady technique” — aka using books to shield himself while swallowing quickly. Legend.
But why are these mall tournaments going so viral? China’s netizens say it’s mostly about collective nostalgia, both in the paofan snack but also the schoolroom flashback — ie, maybe for busy grown-ups, the luxury is just the feeling of being a fearless kid again.
And that feels legit to us, though we’d also add that in a nation with more solo dwellers (~125 million) than most countries have people, there’s something appealing about a bit of community via low-stakes lols with strangers.
Today’s poll
Do you think Colombia made the right call?
Thursday’s poll: Do you think this G7 harmony will last?
🤝 Yes, they've turned a new page (34%)
🙅 No, it's a one-off (65%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)
Your two cents:
🤝 W.A: “They are in survival mode and need each other.”
🙅 C.T: “A testimony to the effectiveness of French diplomacy, maybe?”
🙅 A.J: “Trying to deal with China, Russia, and Iran effectively alone has made Trump understand the value of having partners like the G7.”
🙅 S.F: “Betting on Trump remaining cooperative seems unwise, and 7 - 1 = 0.”
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