🌎 Canada’s government wobbles (again)

Plus: Kanji of the day

December 17, 2024

IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Canada’s government wobbles (again)
2️⃣ Japan’s biggest bank apologises
3️⃣ Kanji of the day

Hi Intriguer. Coffee smugness levels have been spiking again lately, but I’ve uncovered something that might help you prevail next time Barry from accounts is all up in your grill about his single origin beans or whatever.

You see, the famous Massachusetts Institute of Technology has a long history of aligning its research to help US industry thrive. And one interesting example was back in 1920 when the National Coffee Roasters Association gave Professor Samuel Prescott a cool $650k (in today’s value) to do a full study on how to brew the perfect cup.

The guy then went away, set up his own ✌️coffee research laboratory✌️, formed a full tasting squad with his buddies, then came back three years later with the official recipe for a perfect cup: “One tablespoon of coffee per eight ounces of water, just short of boiling, in glass or ceramic containers, never boiled, reheated, or reused."

Now, just imagine the look on Barry’s face when you next roll into the office with a steaming mug of Professor Prescott’s finest. And while you’re at it, imagine the look on Canadian leader Justin Trudeau’s face when his own deputy resigned just hours ago — our lead today.

THE HEADLINES

Senior Russian general assassinated in Moscow.
Ukraine’s security service (the SBU) has killed the senior general in charge of Russia’s nuclear, biological, and chemical protection forces as he left his Moscow apartment. The bomb — planted inside a parked scooter — also killed his assistant. Ukraine had just charged him in absentia for his role in using chemical weapons against Ukrainians.

German government falls.
Olaf Scholz has called and lost a confidence vote, formally ending his unpopular coalition government which had already splintered over budget spats. Germany will now hold elections on February 23, as was already widely expected.

Assad speaks out.
The former Syrian dictator has seemingly issued a statement via Telegram from asylum in Moscow, claiming he had no intention of fleeing his country but was evacuated by Russia as rebels advanced. He claims he had planned to keep fighting “against the terrorist onslaught”.

Trump announces $100B investment from Japan’s Softbank.
Standing next to Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son, Trump has announced the Japanese investor will invest $100B in the US over the next four years, creating 100,000 new jobs mainly in and around AI. Softbank made similar pledges in 2016 after Trump’s first election to the White House.

7.4 earthquake hits Vanuatu.
The quake hit the Pacific Island nation earlier today (Tuesday), damaging buildings (including embassies) and infrastructure, while killing at least one.

TOGETHER WITH TANGLE

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TOP STORY

Canada’s government wobbles (again)

Canada’s deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland just resigned.

Ever woken up on a Monday morning and thought, you know what? Screw this. Well, you’ve found company in Canada’s deputy prime minister and finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, who submitted her resignation just hours before she was set to deliver her regular fiscal and economic update yesterday (Monday) afternoon. 

What a move, eh? Finance ministers come and go (just ask Germany), so what makes Freeland’s resignation such a big deal? In a letter technically addressed to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (but really to the world), Freeland laid out her case:

  • She claims Trudeau was pushing her out of the finance job, and so rather than accept another role, Freeland resigned.

  • But the real kicker was when she wrote, on Canadian letterhead, that she and her boss had been "at odds about the best path forward for Canada” for weeks. 

At odds over what, you ask? There’s an official answer and an unofficial answer. For the official answer, Freeland effectively traces her decision back to some Trump tweets.

Here’s the timeline — 

Any possible chuckles aside, alarm bells were already ringing in Canada, which sells 77% of its exports to the US. Sure, there were also surprise tariffs on Canada during Trump 1.0, but this time the stakes (like the threatened tariffs) are higher, as Canada grapples with stubborn unemployment and deficits, plus an unhappy electorate.

So in the weeks since that dinner, Trudeau, Freeland, and Canada’s ten provincial premiers have already huddled twice to craft a strategy, with leaks that Canada could respond with export taxes on uranium, oil, and potash (Canada is America’s top foreign supplier).

What’s any of this got to do with Freeland’s resignation?

The official reason (in her letter) is that she and Trudeau disagreed on how to respond:

  • Freeland says she wanted to push back on “'America First' economic nationalism” and keep “our fiscal powder dry today, so we have the reserves we may need for a coming tariff war.”

  • And she contrasts that with Trudeau’s response, which she describes as “costly political gimmicks” (a presumed reference to Trudeau’s temporary tax cuts plus his move to send USD175 each to 19 million Canadians next year).

The unofficial reason? There are a few:

  • Critics say Freeland didn’t want to be associated with Canada’s (US) $43B budget deficit (delivered in her absence), which blew past her own guardrails by $15B —something she implicitly blames on Trudeau’s “costly political gimmicks” above.

  • But she probably also didn’t want to be associated with Trudeau himself, whose approval is still languishing around 30% — he’s unpopular both for classic incumbent reasons (housing, cost of living, migration) but also Trudeau-specific reasons (critics say he’s weak, aloof, too progressive, etc). So he’s again now fending off calls to resign, and Freeland is a contender to replace him, though polling suggests their party is destined for wipe-out either way.

So what’s next for Trudeau?

He’s invited media to hear him speak at a separate event today (Tuesday).

So far, he’s apparently been saying he’ll take time to reflect on his future — but he said the same thing when his party colleagues called on him to resign back in October, only to then shrug it all off. At this stage, however, it’s hard to see that line working much longer.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

So… a few Trump tweets just destabilised the government of an ally, neighbour, and major trading partner? That’s a remarkable sentence for us to type, and presumably for you to read. And it leaves us with three thoughts.

First, did this all happen because of Trump’s influence, or Canada’s political climate? We’d say a bit of both: Trudeau’s position was wobbly well before US election day, and Trump’s attention really brought the blowtorch.

Second, Canada’s budget contained some intriguing details, including an extra ~$1B for border security. There were no specifics, though the message to Trump was clear: Canada was listening to (if quietly disputing) his border concerns. That approach worked for Mexico, and might’ve worked for Canada too — except it’s been drowned out by the political drama above. Instead of a conciliatory tweet like he sent Mexico, Trump’s immediate response has been to describe Freeland’s behaviour as “toxic”.

Then third, maybe let’s add Canada to the near-complete list of G7 countries now dealing with varying degrees of domestic turmoil as our world gets more complicated.

Also worth noting:

  • Bank of Canada chief Tiff Macklem has criticised Trump’s proposed tariffs, saying the G7 should “confront its shared economic security issues together.”

  • Trudeau has now named his public safety minister and close childhood friend, Dominic LeBlanc, as finance minister. He’s also been trying to recruit Mark Carney, Canada’s highly regarded ex-central banker, to join his cabinet.

  • Elections are due by late 2025, the same year Canada is due to host the G7. Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre currently leads in the polls.

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

  1. 🇯🇵 Japan: The country’s largest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, has apologised to customers after a former employee stole over $6.5M from safe deposit boxes. The culprit has been identified and is apparently now cooperating with the authorities.

  2. 🇫🇷 France: President Macron’s new PM, centrist political veteran François Bayrou, is now in talks with major parties to drum up support after his predecessor’s minority rule collapsed in record time. But the left-leaning ‘France Unbowed’ movement is remaining, well, unbowed, refusing to participate unless it’s invited to form a government (it won the most seats, though not a majority).

  3. 🇧🇩 Bangladesh: Interim leader and Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has announced Bangladesh could hold elections between the end of next year and early 2026. He came to power after popular revolts overthrew long-time leader Sheikh Hasina earlier this year, and he wants to push through electoral reforms but is facing pressure to transition to an elected government ASAP.

  4. 🇯🇲 Jamaica: Lawmakers have introduced a bill that could remove King Charles III as Jamaica’s (ceremonial) head of state and transition the Caribbean nation to a republic. Opposition parties are already raising concerns, including on why the bill doesn’t also ditch the UK’s privy council as Jamaica’s top court.

  5. 🇨🇩 DR Congo: A scheduled meeting between the Congolese and Rwandan presidents ended up falling through on Sunday, dashing hopes of progress on the ongoing conflict between the DRC and Rwandan-backed armed militias. Nearly two million people in eastern Congo have been displaced by the violence. 

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EXTRA INTRIGUE

Here’s what people around the world have been googling lately 

  • Folks in 🇺🇾 Uruguay are after ‘ministros de Orsi’ (Orsi’s ministers) to keep up with the cabinet picks rolling in from the country’s newly-elected leader. 

  • People in 🇧🇩 Bangladesh looked up ‘full moon cold moon’ for pics of the year’s last full moon (also known as a cold moon). 

  • And 🇸🇬 Singaporeans searched for the ‘Bali nine case’ after the remaining five (of nine) Australians returned home following 20 years in an Indonesian prison for drug smuggling.

KANJI OF THE DAY

The Japanese character for ‘gold’. Credits: JIJI. 

The Japanese kanji character for gold (or money) has emerged as Japan’s word of the year, reflecting both national pride in Japan’s Olympic success (Japan placed third overall), plus a golden year for Japanese baseball star Shohei Ohtani, but also… lingering dissatisfaction over a local political scandal.

That’s because the singular character can be read both as kin (gold) and kane (money) and likely won because of its double meaning: the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is still dealing with the fallout after various officials failed to report campaign kane and instead stored it in illegal slush funds.

The scandal eventually contributed to Fumio Kishida’s exit as PM earlier this year.

DAILY POLL

How long do you think Trudeau has left?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Yesterday’s poll: What do you think about political appointees as ambassadors?

🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 👌 Elected leaders should appoint who they want (if qualified) (41%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⛔ Political appointees just politicise and weaken diplomacy (57%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)

Your two cents:

  • ⛔ D.D: “Can't think of a single valid reason for allowing political appointees. Diplomats represent the country (and its long term interests), not the executive office holder of the time.”

  • 👌 R.J: “In the age of instant communication, ambassadors are mostly figureheads. Duly elected presidents have full right to nominate whoever they want. Who the president nominates to NSC staff is where the real meat and potatoes of diplomacy is.”

  • ✍️ M.G: “I served with a couple of pretty good political appointees, but they were definitely the exception. Career appointees will toe the administration's line no matter what it is - their oath is to the constitution, not a particular vision - while political appointees just stir the pot and look for photo ops.”

  • 👌 N: “I would remove the ‘if qualified’ qualifier — who decides on qualifications?”

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