šŸŒ China and Russia sail the Bering Sea

Plus: Holiday of the day

IN TODAYā€™S EDITION
1ļøāƒ£ A joint China-Russia patrol through the Bering
2ļøāƒ£ A sixth season for an Intrigue favourite?
3ļøāƒ£ Holiday of the day

Hi Intriguer. You gotta be careful what you complain about, lest anyone take it as an invitation to just do that thing some more. Two music examples:

  • When word broke that singer-songwriter Ryan Adams got irritated by a heckler demanding he play Summer of ā€˜69 (by the other guy: Brian Adams), of course, his concerts soon became full of jokers calling out ā€œplay Summer of ā€˜69!ā€; and

  • Legendary jazz pianist Keith Jarrett hates audience coughs so much, he stops his concerts, leads everyone in a group cough, and even tosses throat lozenges at coughers - but of course, his concerts now have a suspiciously high cough ratio.

Anyway, keep that in mind while reading todayā€™s briefing, which looks at a relatively chill US response to a joint Russia-China coast guard patrol through the Bering Sea.

THE HEADLINES

The latest from the Middle East.
Israeli strikes on a Hezbollah-linked health centre in the middle of Beirut have killed at least six people, while at least eight Israeli soldiers have now died in Israelā€™s ground offensive in Lebanonā€™s south. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden has said he wouldnā€™t support any potential Israeli retaliatory strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, though the US is in conversation with Israel over ā€œwhat they're gonna doā€.

Russia claims another town in eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces have retreated from Vuhledar after Russian troops threatened to encircle the coal-mining hub. Vuhledar (now mostly destroyed) has tactical value because itā€™s perched atop a hill and is also close to major railways that are key for supply lines.

OpenAI closes record $6.6B funding round.
Tech darling OpenAI has completed its latest funding round, raising $6.6B in new cash and nearly doubling its valuation to $157B. Microsoft tipped in another $750M, on top of the $13B itā€™s already invested. OpenAI is now one of the worldā€™s most valuable private companies, with only ByteDance (TikTok) and Elon Muskā€™s SpaceX worth more.

New court filings in Trump 2020 case unsealed.
A federal judge has unsealed portions of a 165-page filing in which prosecutors argue why their 2020 election case against Donald Trump should proceed despite a recent Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity. In response, Trump has described the filing as ā€œpure election interference.ā€ PS - donā€™t miss our next edition of Election Intrigue, the weekly briefing on what the US election means for the world.

WWII bomb explodes at Japanese airport.
A US World War II bomb buried beneath Miyazaki airport has exploded, leaving a sizeable crater in the taxi area and causing over 80 flights to be cancelled. Authorities are still investigating what set off the device, which fortunately didnā€™t cause any injuries.

UK transfers sovereignty of remote islands. 
And in breaking news, the UK has just agreed to transfer sovereignty of the strategic Chagos Islands (in the Indian Ocean) to Mauritius, after years of negotiations. Itā€™ll include the tropical atoll of Diego Garcia, which is home to a secretive US-UK military base.

TOP STORY

China and Russia sail the Bering Sea

Before kicking off its boots for Chinaā€™s week-long national day holiday, the Chinese Coast Guard conducted an Arctic patrol over the weekend. And thatā€™s significant because:

  • a) It involved passing through the Bering Sea between Russia and the US (Alaska)

  • b) Itā€™s reportedly the first time Chinaā€™s coast guard has entered the Arctic, and

  • c) It took this step with its ā€˜no limitsā€™ partner Russia (reminder: Putin and Xi declared a ā€˜no limitsā€™ partnership, days before Vlad invaded Ukraine in 2022).

So then, whyā€™d they do it?

The Russians havenā€™t offered an explanation. And neither did China, until the US did the diplomatic equivalent of a fake cough, releasing a statement noting a routine US border patrol had observed the four vessels (two each) transiting just within Russiaā€™s boundary.

The subsequent media interest then prompted Beijing to release a statement yesterday (Wednesday), saying its aim was to expand its coast guardā€™s range, test its abilities in new oceans, bolster its participation in international governance, and help maintain order.

So why would anyone mind?

Well officially, nobody does mind (see the dry US statement above). But unofficially, you can bet strategists in Beijing, Moscow, and the West are all over this for three reasons.

First, both China and Russia have a history of using their civilian coast guard for non-civilian purposes. For example:

  • China has been ramming Philippine vessels inside Philippine waters to assert its vast claims over the South China Sea (rejected by an international tribunal), and

  • Russia once used coast guard vessels to fire upon and then seize three Ukrainian navy vessels in international waters (a couple of years before it then invaded).

Second, this adds a bit more substance to the China-Russia ā€˜no limitsā€™ friendship, which aims for ā€œthe establishment of a new kind of relationship between world powersā€ (ie, kinda remaking the international order). But of course, while China is helping keep Russiaā€™s wartime economy afloat, there are clearly still ā€˜limitsā€™ between them: eg, Beijing is even squeezing Moscow on gas prices right now. So the occasional joint coast guard exercise is a low cost way to still hint at something bigger and keep your rivals guessing.

And third, thereā€™s the Arctic itself which is, despite appearances, so hot right now. The US and its allies make up seven of the worldā€™s eight Arctic states. Russia is the eighth (and largest), while China has declared itself a ā€œnear-Arctic stateā€ - thatā€™s not officially a ā€˜thingā€™, and even if it was, Chinaā€™s northernmost provincial capital is about as close to the Arctic as Portland is. So then, whatā€™s all this interest in the Arctic?

  • An estimated 13% of the worldā€™s untapped oil reserves and 30% of its undiscovered natural gas are in the Arctic

  • The region is rich in resources like critical minerals (essential for energy, tech, and defence industries), and

  • While the melting ice portends an ecological disaster, itā€™s also opening up new maritime routes which could change the face of global trade.

But zooming out a little further, there are some big picture strategic stakes, too: a top fear for traditional land powers like Russia and China is the risk of being (or feeling) ā€˜encircledā€™ by your enemies. So from that perspective, expanding your presence up north is a way to break that fear of encirclement and even reverse-Uno it against your rivals:

  • The US flew two strategic bombers off Russiaā€™s Arctic coast in July

  • Russia and China then jointly flew bombers off Alaska for the first time, and

  • Thatā€™s all while Russia has built or revived ~500 military sites along its Arctic over the past decade.

And this is all playing out on the diplomatic front too, with Moscow and Beijing convening an Arctic conference last week, signing a shipping pact (with Arctic characteristics) in August, and their two presidents highlighted joint Arctic work in May.

So against all that, itā€™s easy to see a routine joint coast guard exercise in a whole new light.

INTRIGUEā€™S TAKE

Zooming out a little further, another interesting aspect of all this is whatā€™s happening with the Arctic Council: thatā€™s the international body thatā€™s meant to guide cooperation among the eight Arctic powers. Seven of the Councilā€™s eight members are now NATO members. The eighth is Russia (China is an observer).

And the thing is, ever since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, that Arctic Council has effectively broken down. Thatā€™s hampered environmental cooperation in a region that desperately needs it. But itā€™s also removed guardrails against outright Arctic competition, commercialisation, and militarisation.

So you can add the Arctic to the long and growing list of places now feeling the effects of Putinā€™s decision to invade his democratic neighbour.

Also worth noting:

  • China and Russia agreed back in 2017 to develop a ā€˜Polar Silk Roadā€™ (through the Arctic Sea), under Chinaā€™s Belt & Road infrastructure initiative. But not a lot has really happened since then.

  • The Pentagon released a new Arctic Strategy in July, featuring sections on China and Russiaā€™s objectives in the region, plus the ā€˜monitor and respondā€™ approach the US is taking in response.

A MESSAGE FROM POLYMARKET

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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREā€¦

  1. šŸ‡­šŸ‡¹ Haiti: Haitiā€™s anti-corruption unit has charged three members of the countryā€™s transitional council, accusing them of demanding $750K from the head of a state-owned bank in return for him keeping his job. The accusations, all denied, come as Haiti struggles to restore order against dominant armed gangs.

  2. šŸ‡²šŸ‡© Moldova: Tensions are flaring up ahead of Moldovaā€™s elections later this month, with the leader of the opposition now under fire for holding a Romanian passport. Thatā€™s raised a few eyebrows because his own pro-Russia opposition party has long hammered the pro-Western president for having a Romanian passport (Romania is a NATO member).

  3. šŸ‡°šŸ‡¬ Kyrgyzstan: Despite the countryā€™s hydro plants receiving more water this year, Kyrgyzstanā€™s energy minister says rising demand means there are still major electricity shortages ahead. In response, Kyrgyzstan (which already gets ~87% of its electricity from hydro) is now building even more hydro plants.

  4. šŸ‡µšŸ‡­ Philippines: Manila is stepping up its candidacy for a 2027-28 seat on the UN Security Council, with its top diplomat Enrique Manalo highlighting his countryā€™s track record at the UN over the weekend. By seeking a temporary seat at the UNā€™s top table, the Philippines likely hopes (among other things) to boost its leverage in its ongoing maritime disputes with China.

  5. šŸ‡©šŸ‡Æ Djibouti: At least 45 people have died and another 100+ remain missing after people smugglers reportedly forced them to disembark at sea and swim the last stretch to Djibouti. Many undocumented migrants from the Horn of Africa use this route to travel between their homes and wealthier countries in the Gulf.

EXTRA INTRIGUE

Meanwhile, in other worldsā€¦

HOLIDAY OF THE DAY

Today (October 3) is German Unity Day, or Tag der Deutschen Einheit šŸ˜Ž, marking the end of a four decade split between democratic West Germany and the Soviet-aligned East.

To celebrate, folks in Germany get a day off, while German diplomats abroad mark the occasion in all sorts of ways. In Washington, for example, the German ambassador hosted hundreds of guests (including Intrigue) at his residence in the chic Foxhall neighbourhood last week. The various VIPs included fellow German-speaker, current New Jersey governor, and former US ambassador to Germany, Phil Murphy.

Despite the generous open bar, there was still one topic of conversation not a single diplomat would touch: who they think will win the US elections next month. Well trained.

DAILY POLL

What do you think this joint Russia-China patrol through the Bering Sea means?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Yesterdayā€™s poll: Are we near a de-escalation in the Middle East?

ā¬œļøā¬œļøā¬œļøā¬œļøā¬œļøā¬œļø āœ… Yes, Iran's volley did minimal damage (7%)

šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ© āŒ No, Israel can't let that go unanswered (87%)

ā¬œļøā¬œļøā¬œļøā¬œļøā¬œļøā¬œļø šŸ¤ Maybe, it depends on... (tell us what!) (3%)

ā¬œļøā¬œļøā¬œļøā¬œļøā¬œļøā¬œļø āœļø Other (write in!) (34)

Your two cents:

  • āŒ H.N.T: ā€œIt's not even a question of whether Israel will respond to Iran ā€” the more pressing matter is how.ā€

  • šŸ¤ L.B.M: ā€œTit-for-Tat, or the sequential game play will continue until a diplomatic solution is found.ā€

  • āœļø J.G: ā€œI thought Iran wouldnā€™t do it, because I know Iranā€™s nuclear program is a box on Israelā€™s checklist.ā€

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