Todayโs briefing:
โ Can Takaichi save Japan?
โ The one ski resort money canโt buy
โ The best way to catch a robber
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. There are weekends when, like a good episode of Seinfeld, nothing happens.
Then there are others when, like a late-vintage episode of 24, everything happens. We arguably just got the latter, with the Czechs electing a new government, a Gaza peace now within reach, Georgians re-taking the streets, OPEC ramping up its oil output again, Putin firing another 500 drones at Ukraine, and Japan effectively getting a new leader. Oh, and Franceโs new PM resigned just moments ago, barely three weeks after his appointment.
Todayโs briefing takes a closer look at Japanโs next prime minister, but like an episode of CSI, weโll dutifully figure out how to tie the other plot-lines in too. Onwards.
Number of the day
70
Thatโs roughly how many Gaza aid flotilla activists Israel will deport today (Monday), including 28 French nationals, 27 Greeks, 15 Italians, and nine Swedes (Greta Thunberg among them). The remaining ~300 or so are due for deportation within days, after Israel intercepted their 45 vessels in international waters late last week.
Choose your character
As we foreshadowed last month, Japan's beleaguered Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) just elected Sanae Takaichi (64) as its leader, meaning she'll now become Japan's next (and first female) prime minister when the legislature meets on October 15.
Itโs a tough gig, so weโve channelled our love for Japanese pop culture with a quick Takaichi character profile, starting with the obligatory...
๐ฐ๏ธ Flashback
Unlike most recent PMs, Takaichi hails not from a political dynasty, but from an auto industry dad and a police officer mother. So right through her business degree in Kobe, there wasn't much to hint at any world leader in the making, until...
๐ฝ Training montage
A prestigious fellowship with Coloradoโs first congresswoman whetted her appetite for politics, and her early years as a TV host back home shaped her media savvy, helping her win a seat in Japan's parliament just as its economic bubble was bursting in 1993.
But it's hard for an obscure independent to get much done among the Diet's ~700 lawmakers, so Takaichi joined the ruling party and got herself a...
๐ง Mentor
She and Shinzo Abe were conservative kindred spirits and, as a top backer then minister in his cabinet, she shaped and endorsed Abeโs signature 'Abenomics' stimulus aimed at reflating and reforming Japan's economy (she's vowing more of that).
Takaichi was also a classic Abe protรฉgรฉ when it came to...
ใ๏ธ The secret weapon
A classic hawk on China, she wants to finish what Abe started, including to revise Japan's pacifist constitution, rebuild its armed forces, and reassert Japanese strength against China's claims not only over the Senkaku Islands, but even Taiwan. Thatโll also force her into aโฆ
โฉ๏ธ Great trial
Days after Takaichi takes power, Japan's Yasukuni Shrine festival kicks off, and the world will be watching whether she turns up. The shrine houses the spirits of Japan's war dead (including war criminals), so her base will want her there again, but thatโll not only rattle rivals like China, but also fellow US allies like Korea and the Philippines. Meanwhileโฆ
๐บ๏ธ Side quest
We're also obliged to mention Takaichi once drummed in a heavy metal band, named fellow social conservative Margaret Thatcher as her role model, and was overjoyed when Toyota restored her beloved 1991 Supra to its original condition (it's now in a museum).
Anyway, maybe that all accumulated the experience points necessary for her...
๐ Redemptive arc
Takaichi ran for the top job twice before, but kept bumping up against factions preferring to play it safe. Now in 2025, however, Japanโs ruling LDP is not only ready for, but feels it actively needs Takaichiโs firebrand politics: she's moderated a bit, but her colleagues are hoping she can stem the exodus of conservative voters without irking her moderates.
And thatโs how Sanae Takaichi pulled off the ultimate level-up in Japanese politics.
Intrigueโs Take
Of course, the big question now is whether Takaichi can defeat Japanโs final boss, whether at home (a mid economy) or abroad (a darkening outlook).
Like them or not, Abeโs expansionist economics and nationalist politics were a turning point, and Takaichi is pledging an Abe 3.0 as prime minister. But the world has changed a staggering amount since Abeโs 2022 assassination, let alone his 2020 resignation.
Takaichiโs party is now less powerful, her US allies less predictable, Japanโs finances less manageable, and Chinaโs assurances (standing aside despots like Kim and Putin) less comforting.ย
Sound even smarter:
Japanโs opposition parties could theoretically band together to elect someone else as PM on the 15th, but those parties mostly hate one another too much.
Takaichi just tweeted that sheโs working through her 600 congratulatory texts, and will announce key party leadership positions today (Monday).
Meanwhile, elsewhereโฆ
๐ฎ๐ฑย ISRAEL - Gaza peace?
President Trump has urged mediators to move fast to iron out details after Hamas semi-accepted his peace plan on Friday. Negotiators are due in Egypt today, and Trump is hinting the ceasefire and hostage release could begin within days. (BBC)
Comment:ย We say โsemi-acceptedโ because Hamas was notably silent on the planโs demands that it disarm and disband. To the contrary, the Hamas statement flagged its intention to fully participate in talks about Gazaโs future.
๐ป๐ชย VENEZUELA - Land strikes next?
President Trump has used his appearance at a Virginia naval base to hint at US strikes on land-based cartel targets in Venezuela, noting โtheyโre not coming in by sea any more, so now weโll have to start looking at the landโ. (France24)
Comment:ย This has been rumoured for weeks, as nearby US assets (and drills) increasingly reflect amphibious capabilities. Itโd be a big escalation, and arguably confirm assessments that Trump wants to destabilise Maduroโs grip on power.
๐ธ๐พย SYRIA - To the ballot box.
Authorities are hailing Syriaโs first parliamentary โ๏ธelectionsโ๏ธ since the Assad dictatorship got ousted, though thereโs unease around the details: interim leader al-Sharaa will appoint a third of the legislators himself, while the remainder are chosen by electoral colleges rather than direct popular vote. (Al Jazeera)
Comment:ย The argument is this hybrid model was necessary given the reality of trying to organise full elections in the post-war context. And al-Sharaa is saying heโll use his 70 seats to fill any gaps in representation from across Syria.
๐จ๐ฟ CZECH REPUBLIC - The billionaire is back.
Populist billionaire and former prime minister Andrej Babiลก has won this weekendโs parliamentary elections, though he failed to win a majority. His promises include less aid to Ukraine, instead boosting welfare spending back home. (Guardian)
Comment:ย Babiลก has now got to do deals with fringe parties, some of whom give more Kremlin-friendly vibes. Heโs reiterated his support for both the EU and NATO, though he pitches himself as wanting improvements. So thereโs a possibility heโll reshape Czechia to resemble Eurosceptic neighbours like Hungary and Slovakia.
๐จ๐บ CUBA - Helping Russia?
The folks at Reuters say US diplomats are now lobbying against the UNโs annual non-binding resolution criticising DCโs embargo on Cuba. One of the key talking points includes a claim that, after North Korea, Cuba is now the largest contributor of foreign troops (between 1k and 5k) to Russiaโs invasion of Ukraine. (Reuters)
Comment: Itโs likely a reference to reports of Russia recruiting more mercenaries from Cuba. Weโre curious why the White House now cares so much about this non-binding resolution, which yet again passed last year with 187 countries supporting, and just two against (the US and Israel). It has no practical impact, but is a stark illustration of how US efforts to isolate Cuba can backfire.
๐ฎ๐ฉ INDONESIA - TikTok is back.
Authorities have restored TikTokโs (briefly suspended) license after the China-owned social media platform complied with Jakartaโs demands to share data relevant to Indonesiaโs recent mass anti-government protests. (Bloomberg $)
Comment: Nobody likes a told-you-so, but it was only last week we mused about how governments will respond to recent Gen-Z protests with more social media crackdowns. Interestingly, TikTok initially declined to comply with all of Jakartaโs demands, but the brief ban mustโve jolted the senses, in a vivid reminder of where the leverage sits when dealing with one of the platformโs biggest markets.
๐ธ๐ด SOMALIA - Jailbreak.
Local Al Qaeda-linked group al-Shabab has pulled off a deadly prison break, dressing as soldiers to release fellow members and other prisoners right in the middle of one of Mogadishuโs most tightly guarded zones. (BBC)
๐ฌ๐ช GEORGIA - Fury.
Authorities have detained at least five organisers of the anti-government protests that rocked the capital over the weekend, amid local elections largely boycotted by the opposition as the Kremlin-friendly government cracks down on dissent. (EuroNews)
Comment: One of the detained figures is a revered opera star (Burchuladze), who was urging law enforcement to arrest leaders of the ruling party. The party will have thought (hoped?) this unrest was all behind it.
Extra Intrigue
๐คฃ Your weekly roundup of the worldโs lighter news
AI chatbots are sending tourists to non-existent destinations.
A cyberattack means Japanโs most popular beer is now facing shortages.
An Egyptian strongman just pulled a 635,000kg (700-ton) ship with his teeth.
A Utah university just censored a conference about censorship.
And cops have caught a Colorado burglary suspect after he walked behind TV crews recording a segment about him.
Ski resort of the day
Credits: Laax.
Three small villages in Switzerland (Flims, Laax and Falera) are gearing up for referendums (referenda ๐ค) this month on the possibility of buying local skiing infrastructure, amid reports US giants like Vail have been sniffing around for more potential acquisitions.
Interestingly, the current local owner has already flagged heโs happy to accept less cash if it means one of Switzerlandโs largest ski resorts stays in local hands. Itโs very on-brand for the Swiss, with their long history of preferring local ownership and control.
Todayโs poll
Do you think Takaichi can save Japan?
Last Thursdayโs poll: How long do you think this US government shutdown will last?
โ Under one week (4%)
โ A week or so (20%)
2๏ธโฃ Two weeks (26%)
๐๏ธ Longer (50%)
โ๏ธ Other (write us!) (0%)
Your two cents:
๐๏ธ R.C: โElections in November may be needed to sway negotiations.โ [several US gubernatorial, state legislative, and mayoral races are scheduled for November]
2๏ธโฃ D.F: โHeels are being dug in, but as people start to get higher Affordable Care Act insurance premium demands the Republicans will feel the pressure and cave.โ
๐๏ธ S.F: โI am repeatedly surprised that foreign adversaries of the US do not take these shutdowns as opportunities to undermine the US and its influence in the world.โ
โ๏ธ P.H: โIt doesn't really matter as the reasons for the shutdown are childish. I am saddened that we live in such a dysfunctional country.โ
