Today’s briefing:
— Bolsonaro Jr wins Brazil’s first round
— Spain’s PM calls snap election
— South Korea’s adorable Jaws moment
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Bolsonaro Jr wins Brazil’s first round
— Spain’s PM calls snap election
— South Korea’s adorable Jaws moment
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Legend has it that when asked to describe his country’s chaotic politics, the legendary Bossa Nova artist Tom Jobim shrugged and offered this caution: “Brazil is not for beginners.”
Tom was right, as we’ll see in Brazil’s massive first-round election result.
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
🍸 Will you be in Melbourne this Thursday? I’ll be in town speaking at the Megatrends Summit, so join me for the next Intrigue happy hour!
Number of the day
16
That’s how many US trucking companies just filed for bankruptcy amid soaring diesel prices, according to FreightWaves; those 16 firms only account for ~250 of the sector’s 2.2 million jobs. The G7 is now releasing ~100M barrels of emergency diesel over the next four months, potentially shaving 25-50¢ off a gallon — more a psychological circuit-breaker than a structural fix at this point.
A Brazilian reasons
Chip off the old block.
If you thought October was just for horror film re-runs and pumpkin spice lattes, Latin America's biggest economy and the world's seventh-largest democracy just delivered an election outcome that'd make an HBO writers' room schvitz.
Here are the four numbers you need to know, starting with...
🗳️ 47%
That's what the conservative young Flávio Bolsonaro just scored, outperforming not only the left’s President Lula on 45%, but endless polls forecasting a tie or Lula win.
And yet still falling short of 50%, Bolsonaro and Lula now go head-to-head in a runoff on Sunday the 25th. The consensus has increasingly been that Bolsonaro holds an advantage in any second round simply because most of the vanquished third-parties also leaned right, with their supporters now more likely to back him.
You'll see that play out in markets today (Monday) as investors push Brazilian bond yields lower on expectations a more business-friendly (and lower-spending) Bolsonaro administration is now poised to move into the Palácio da Alvorada.
👑 938,496
That's how many votes Michelle Bolsonaro just won, setting a new federal district record and making her the country's first-ever (ex) first lady to win a seat. She's Flávio's stepmother (and Jair's wife, the former president now serving a 27-year sentence for his role in 2022's attempted coup to cling to power).
But there's more: Flávio's younger brother Carlos also just won a senate seat, and his youngest half-brother Renan just got elected congressman, as did Jair’s younger brother (Renato, the uncle). So this really is shaping up as more of a conservative family dynasty. They now lead the single largest bloc in both chambers, giving the family unprecedented (though still coalition-dependent) power over tax reforms, judicial confirmations, and federal spending.
And of course if (still if!) Flávio wins the presidency, he's promising to immediately pardon his dad Jair the patriarch; business-friendly vibes notwithstanding, markets have also wobbled at the political risk of a pardoning-populist taking the helm.
But lest you think it's a Bolsonaro-only show...
🏭 63%
That's the record first-round landslide win de Freitas just scored to be re-elected governor of Brazil's largest state, São Paulo. He's long been a presidential contender himself but stood aside to let the young Bolsonaro take a shot.
The Bolsonaros have long viewed de Freitas with a mix of reliance and suspicion, seeing him as more of a centre-right pragmatist than a hardline loyalist. Either way, he now waits in the wings as the heir-apparent, building his own power base as the right’s firewall, and the market’s darling in Brazil's industrial heartland. But...
😔 39.2 million
That's roughly how many eligible Brazilian voters skipped this first round, either not showing up (33.4 million), voting blank (2.2 million), or spoiling (3.6 million).
That’s been creeping higher since 2006, reflecting both ageing (mandatory voting ends at 70) and inflation (making the no-show fine cheaper than a bus fare) — but it's also about sheer fatigue and dissatisfaction.
And it's really this huge cohort of disengaged folks — way bigger than the ~nine million voters who backed any third-party candidate — that both Bolsonaro and Lula will now try to lure out in the second round. That means more brutal negative ad blitzes, cultural outrage, and political bomb-shells ahead.
Intrigue’s Take
This first-round result potentially exposes a much larger macroeconomic and geopolitical shift now taking place across Latin America, and much of the democratic world. These are the three we’re tracking, starting with…
| Intrigue Insiders | Membership |
Our experienced, unfiltered takes on what's really going on.
| ✓Daily audio edition | ✓Completely ad-free |
| ✓Insider Telegram community | ✓Monthly AMAs |
| Start your free trial → | $14.99/mo · $149/yr 7 days free |
Intrigue’s Take
This first-round result potentially exposes a much larger macroeconomic and geopolitical shift now taking place across Latin America, and much of the democratic world. These are the three we’re tracking, starting with…
First, the ‘vibes-cession’ still beats headline GDP. On paper Lula’s economic record is decent: inflation has stayed within target, unemployment has dropped near multi-year lows, and foreign direct investment has held steady. But as we’ve now learned over and over, macro stats don’t buy the groceries. With lingering post-pandemic price pressures, high domestic interest rates, and an uneven services recovery, folks still feel squeezed. You need to keep converting those macro headlines into household breathing space, or they’ll punish you, which takes us to…
Second, Latin America’s political pendulum isn’t so much swinging right as it is swinging out: media types love breathless headlines about a ‘Pink Tide’ to the left, or a conservative ‘wave’ or ‘surge’ over to the right — and yes, there’s a degree of cross-border contagion as folks elsewhere look at Argentina’s Milei or El Salvador’s Bukele (and beyond) and think maybe that’s worth a try? But for us, folks aren’t so much falling in love with conservatism or its opposition candidates as they are tiring of a flagging status quo, punishing whoever holds the presidential keys, and rolling the dice on populists (of any colour) promising a fix. And that brings us to…
Third, sure, the resurgent sight of open US intervention (via tariffs, visas, etc) makes for some jalapeño-spicy headlines, and has presented President Lula with opportunities to present Bolsonaro as a foreign pawn, or fire up some nationalists. But the scale of Bolsonaro’s first-round win — and the 39 million folks who effectively opted to just stay home — leaves us seeing this less as the product of secret algorithms or foreign influence, and more the outpouring of local frustration and apathy amid yet another Lula-Bolsonaro re-run while Brazil keeps plodding.
And maybe that brings us to this conclusion: there’s a real chance that whether October 25th now delivers a Flávio victory or a Lula comeback, absent a broader political reinvigoration, this election might just change who gets blamed, rather than how much really gets fixed.
Today’s briefing is sponsored by:
Free email without sacrificing your privacy
Gmail tracks you. Proton doesn’t. Get private email that puts your data — and your privacy — first.
[🥟 Prefer ad-free reading? Sign-up to Intrigue Insiders today!]
Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇪🇸 SPAIN — Snap election called.
The, um… prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, has called a snap election for 29 November, after parliament blocked his emergency housing reform. (Politico)
Comment: Known as Spain’s ultimate escape artist, has Sánchez finally run out of options? He’s now cornered by corruption scandals, anger over the Ceuta border crisis, mass protests over runaway rents, and now deadly floods testing government services in Catalonia. So he’s rolling the dice one more time, daring folks to choose between his fragile progressive coalition versus what he’s framing as an untested, hard-right surge.
🇮🇷 IRAN — Resignation at the top.
Iran’s oil minister has unexpectedly stepped down, citing “personal reasons”. Hamid Bovard, boss of the state oil company, is stepping in as acting oil minister in the meantime. (Reuters)
Comment: “Personal reasons” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in a wartime regime where oil revenue is now nearing zero. It hints at the potential of more regime fractures around a blockade that now seems to be biting. Meanwhile, the mounting speculation of a Saudi-backed push to retake Bab al-Mandab from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis *might* weaken the regime’s other big source of current leverage.
🇫🇷 FRANCE — School’s out.
French authorities are now closing up to 500 high schools following a week of escalating student protests and street blockades over proposed education budget cuts and underfunding. (BBC)
Comment: As ever, these localised school protests have now morphed into a broader political headache for Paris. Some of the wild footage will only play into a populist mood that Macron’s centrists are losing control.
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Bring em’ home.
DC has abruptly withdrawn its dozen B1 bombers from the UK’s Fairford airbase, with anonymous US officials telling The New York Times that more specific threats had emerged in the preceding 24 hours. (Air&Space)
Comment: Absent any further detail, the jury is still out whether this was really a US response to a new plot, or a recalibration of the local threat profile after British authorities released six suspects on bail over a plot PM Burnham has flagged likely had Iran’s involvement. Operationally, the US can still theoretically hit any spot on earth, but Fairford has long been DC’s main bomber base in Europe, significantly reducing flight times (including to/from the war in Iran).
🇨🇳 CHINA — Pulling the plug?
China has quietly shuttered and consolidated a record 670 lenders across multiple provinces — mostly credit co-ops and small regional banks. (FT)
Comment: Beijing’s official line is it’s about tidying up supervision for standard risk reduction. Our guess is many of these lenders are also sitting on bad loans from the multi-year property crash and related local government finance implosion — folding them into bigger state banks doesn’t erase those losses. Rather, it just buries them under a bigger balance sheet: it might help stabilise sentiment, or it might just spread the rot.
🇪🇬 EGYPT — Summit against Addis.
Egypt’s Sisi hosted Eritrea’s Afwerki, Sudan’s Burhan, and Somalia’s Mohamud on Sunday to “coordinate on regional issues”. (The National)
Comment: For a translation of “regional issues”, you just need to look at the obvious absentee (Ethiopia’s Abiy) and his own recent claim that all three attendees are now variously backing the resurgent Tigray rebellion in Ethiopia’s north.
🇷🇺 RUSSIA — Plague panic.
A researcher at one of Russia’s Anti-Plague Institutes in Siberia has died of “pneumonia of unknown etiology”, with local outlets reporting she had broken a test-tube containing the plague pathogen. Local authorities initially repeated the plague link, before walking it back to broader wording and insisting the situation is stable, though there are now reports of more regional medical facilities going into quarantine. (Euronews)
Comment: Pending further info, it’s a classic case of a state-controlled media environment making things worse — whether by mixing and suppressing messages, or clashing one message (everything’s fine) with a presumed other (widening physical containment). Pneumonic plague is treatable if caught early, which is why the gap between ‘no outbreak’ and ‘quiet lockdown’ really might matter. Btw, we’re fortunate to have a bio-defence researcher in Intrigue’s group-chat, so become an Insider and join the conversation today!
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly round-up of the world’s lighter news
A crane has toppled into a Florida house while trying to retrieve another crane that had already toppled into the same house.
Cops have detained a Virginian motorcyclist for doing three times the limit while racing to beat the McDonald’s breakfast cutoff (#relatable).
A Dutch museum featuring an entire floor covered in peanut butter has recorded 48 accidental footprints and five dropped iPhones.
20,000 Romanians have gathered at a 5km (3mi) dining table built from recycled materials, raising money for charity while breaking a Guinness record.
And there’s a rumour (fanned by The Washington Post’s Josh Rogin) that North Korea’s Kim Jong Un cut off his friendship with Dennis Rodman after the NBA star got too drunk and crapped all over his Pyongyang hotel room floor.
From our sponsors
NVIDIA founder Jensen Huang says farmers should use AI. DIT AgTech is bringing AI to livestock, proven across 370,000 head. Invest early before access gets harder.
Ambassador of the day
Pic courtesy of Yonhap.
Move over, career diplomats — South Korea’s second city has appointed a new face of international relations: meet Bukang-i, that 3.4m bronze whaler shark above who seems to have taken a wrong turn at sea and wandered into an artificial canal!
Rather than go full Jaws and flee, locals have now rushed for a glimpse, with 600,000 visitors flooding the waterfront over the last fortnight.
And… rather than go full Jaws and attempt a cover-up, this local government has instead held an official Instagram poll (that’s a thing?) asking if Bukang-i should now become a new city mascot. 91% of locals answered yes, so municipal leaders duly signed a decree appointing Bukang-i an Honorary Public Relations Ambassador, like it or not.
Unfortunately the sea-giant could not (ahem) attend the signing ceremony, so the city’s traditional seagull mascot accepted the certificate on the shark’s behalf.
The diplomatic posting may end up being short-lived, however: after two failed if elaborate rescue attempts involving water jets and giant nets, Coast Guard crews have now cordoned off a 100m exit zone, hoping Bukang-i will now return to its day job as a top predator.
Today’s poll
Bolsonaro Jr's first round win *mostly* came down to...
Thursday’s poll: What do you think happened on flight FZ1073?
✈️ Murder-suicide (26%)
💥 Terrorist attack (72%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
💥 P.S: “Suicidal folks often (though not always) rely on opportunity, and hesitate before committing the fact, like the GermanWings pilot finding himself alone in the cockpit. The fact that this FlyDubai pilot had a weapon onboard shows determination and planning more often seen in terror attacks than in suicide attempts.”
✈️ R: “I feel like an actual terrorist plot would have had better organisation and a bit of flourish. If you are going to literally go down in flames for your ideals, you usually leave a trace that will emerge swiftly.”
✍️ F: “We don’t know the full story yet and need more information.”
Editor’s note: The UAE’s attorney general is now describing the incident as a terrorist act, with initial findings suggesting the co-pilot acted alone.