IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Did Russia just steal an election in Georgia?
2️⃣ Should newspapers endorse candidates?
3️⃣ Why you shouldn’t hug too long in New Zealand
Hi {{ First name | Intriguer }}. Best sushi I ever had? Odd of you to ask, but it was in Nicaragua, of all places. At the time, there were hundreds of Japanese engineers working on infrastructure projects in the country, generating enough demand for a chef to pop over from Japan and open a restaurant. And when you combine a Japanese chef with the abundant seafood teeming off Nicaragua's dual coasts? Ufff 🤌
But what was I even doing there, I hear you ask? That’s a little nosey, but this particular visit was to serve as an electoral observer when the ageing revolutionary Daniel Ortega was running for an unconstitutional third term. His regime was frustrated by our presence, and referred to us dismissively as electoral "companions". Anyway, fast forward 13 years, and he's now done in Nicaragua exactly what we feared: gutted its independent institutions, and turned the place into an authoritarian family business.
So is today's briefing about Nicaragua? Yikes, getting a little pushy with all these questions. But no, it's about another contested election with big implications — this time, over in Georgia (the country). So let's get to it.
PS - Couldn’t make our brilliant cybersecurity event with Samsung in DC last week? It’s now on YouTube!
THE HEADLINES
Japan’s ruling party loses majority.
Voters have punished the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) at the ballot box, denying it a parliamentary majority for the first time in 15 years amid rising living costs and a political funding scandal. The LDP still remains the biggest force in parliament, though it’s unclear how Prime Minister Ishiba might cobble together the numbers to form a government. It’s a rare moment of political uncertainty in Japan and a setback for the newly installed Ishiba, though he’s saying he won’t step down.
Israel strikes Iranian military facilities.
The long-anticipated Israeli response came yesterday (Sunday) when Israeli warplanes targeted Iranian military facilities, plus air defence systems around energy sites (though not the sites themselves). The message seems to have been that if Iran escalates any further, Israel will knock out the energy assets that underpin its ailing economy. The initial response in Tehran was to downplay (or at least not overhype) the attack, suggesting a possible pause in the escalatory cycle — oil prices have dropped 4%.
US to probe massive China-linked hack of telecoms.
According to The Wall Street Journal, a US government panel will investigate how China-linked hackers breached multiple US telecommunication networks in an attempt to spy on high-profile targets, including Donald Trump and associates of Kamala Harris. The attacks compromised several phones, though it’s unclear if the hackers accessed any sensitive information. Btw - don’t miss the next edition of Election Intrigue, our weekly briefing on what the US election means for the world (and vice versa).
Egypt proposes short ceasefire-hostage deal to kickstart talks.
The Egyptian president is pushing for a two-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas which would include the exchange of four Israeli hostages and several Palestinian prisoners, in hopes a bigger deal might then follow. Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes continued across Gaza on Sunday, while a suspected bus terrorist attack hit Tel Aviv.
A busy weekend for Latin American elections.
Brazilian President Lula da Silva has suffered a setback after his preferred candidate for mayor of Brazil’s biggest city (São Paulo) lost to the right-leaning incumbent; meanwhile, Lula’s mayors fended off challengers in other cities like Rio. A similar story played out in neighbouring Chile, where left-leaning leader Gabriel Boric’s camp lost 40 mayoral seats, though managed to retain key posts. Meanwhile, Uruguay’s delightfully civil presidential election is now headed for a runoff on November 24 (more on that below).
TOP STORY
Are we headed for more mayhem in Georgia?
President Salome Zourabichvili addresses the world on Georgia’s weekend elections. Photo credits: The president’s office.
The pro-Western and mostly ceremonial president of Georgia stepped up to the palace's lectern in Tbilisi last night (Sunday) and delivered an extraordinary statement:
Flanked by leaders from the country's fractured, pro-West opposition, Salome Zourabichvili declared Saturday's elections had fallen victim to a “Russian special operation”, involving the "complete falsification and theft of your votes".
That’s because Georgia's electoral commission had just announced that the country’s Russia-friendly ruling party (Georgian Dream) had won 54% of the vote, an outcome the president was now openly rejecting as "Georgia’s subordination to Russia.”
Meanwhile the country’s day-to-day leader (prime minister), recently installed by his Georgian Dream party's shadowy billionaire founder, declared the victory was actually "impressive and obvious", and shrugged off fraud claims as "doomed to failure".
So then… who's right here?
Georgia's pro-West president (‘electoral fraud!’), or
Its Russia-friendly PM (‘electoral victory!’).
Notwithstanding its authoritarian turn (eg, this year’s Russian-styled 'foreign agents' law), the ruling Georgian Dream party enjoys some support thanks to economic growth, a fractious opposition, and loyalist media, plus fears (stoked by the same media) about Georgia getting pulled into the Russo-Ukraine war or losing its traditional values. There are also pockets (particularly in rural areas) with strong cultural-linguistic ties to Russia.
But still, credible polling only put the ruling party's support at maybe 40%, and credible exit polling reflected this on election night, suggesting the decade-long Georgian Dream government had failed to win a majority. And that's partly why there was a sense of shock when the electoral commission claimed the ruling party had actually won 54%.
So is there credible evidence of election skulduggery here?
Quite a bit. While several observers note the election ran smoothly from a procedural perspective, the International Republican Institute, the National Democratic Institute, the International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy, an EU parliamentary mission, a NATO parliamentary delegation, the Council of Europe, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe have all now variously documented widespread instances of controlled voting, double-voting, ballot stuffing, coercion, voter suppression, and violence, all against the backdrop of an uneven playing field in terms of coverage and cash.
And it's worth a quick look at some of the specifics here:
‘Controlled voting’ refers to pressuring voters to show photos of how they voted, in return for cash or safety. Cameras are banned inside the voting booths to avoid this practice, but it still happened, including seemingly on live TV.
The government also reportedly made it difficult for the million or so Georgians abroad to vote (they’re a more pro-Western cohort), and
Just in August, the prime minister almost went full Kim Jong Un by vowing to ban most credible opposition parties.
But… the above initial observer reports still stopped short of declaring the election stolen.
Transparency International, however, has now crossed that particular Rubicon: the NGO, a long-time critic of Georgia’s government, has now declared the various problems above as "part of a larger scheme, the purpose of which was to subvert the final result of the election." It’s now therefore concluded that "the preliminary results published by the Central Election Commission do not reflect the will of the citizens of Georgia."
So what happens now?
Several Western governments with their own history of Russian occupation — like in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — have already sounded the alarm.
But Hungary's Russia-friendly leader, Viktor Orbán - who now also holds the EU’s rotating presidency - tweeted his congratulations for Georgian Dream’s "overwhelming victory", before the results had even been announced! He's now about to visit Georgia’s PM (who’s cited Orbán as an inspiration), and will then host the PM back in Budapest for a broader European summit next week, all lending legitimacy to his claims of victory.
As for the EU and the US? The EU quoted some of the above observer reports and called for “constructive and inclusive dialogue” 🔥, while the US noted a little less limply that “international observers have not declared the result to be free and fair.” 🔥🔥
So for now, next steps really depend on what Georgia's people themselves do, and the figurehead president has already called on them to take the streets tonight (Monday).
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Now, Georgia is tiny (<4 million people), so how much does this really matter to the broader world?
Part of the answer is that Georgia has (like neighbouring Moldova and Ukraine) long been part of a broader frontline for Vladimir Putin's efforts to restore Russian power. The Georgians gained independence from Moscow back in 1991, and some 80% of them now say they want to join the EU — it's even in the country's constitution (NATO, too).
But Putin has long had his own designs and has been occupying 20% of Georgia's territory since 2008. And as he’s gone on to invade Crimea (2014) then broader Ukraine (2022), plus interfere in Moldova’s elections (this month), all with limited pushback from an introspective West, Putin has been placing the West in a bind between:
a) openly backing democracy, but getting accused of interference, or
b) watching Russia openly ‘Belarusify’ these countries, but then getting accused of Western indifference.
Also worth noting:
The Georgian Dream’s claimed majority still isn’t big enough to change Georgia’s constitution.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan: Across the Caspian Sea in Central Asia, Uzbekistan also held parliamentary elections yesterday (Sunday), though they offered no real opposition to President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. In 2023, Uzbeks overwhelmingly approved constitutional changes that could extend Mirziyoyev’s tenure until 2037.
🇬🇧 UK: The French and German ambassadors to the UK have warned that UK plans to tax private school fees could damage ties with their own countries. The ambassadors argue that international schools (as distinct from broader private schools) are often part-funded by foreign governments and are critical for foreign companies to be able to send executives abroad, so should be exempt.
🇦🇺 Australia: UK-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto has signed an MoU with China's Nanjing Iron and Steel Co to co-develop a decarbonisation technology for ironmaking. Iron and steelmaking currently contribute around 8% of the world’s carbon emissions.
🇺🇾 Uruguay: Voters headed to the polls yesterday to choose between two relatively moderate candidates for president, plus two major proposed reforms on the ballot. It looks like the main presidential candidates are now headed for a run-off on November 24, while initial results suggest voters rejected both referendum proposals (to lower the retirement age and boost policing powers).
🇬🇭 Ghana: The 56 members of the Commonwealth group of nations (mostly former UK colonies and territories) have elected Ghana’s foreign minister Shirley Ayorkor Botchwey as the body’s new secretary general at their summit’s closing day in Samoa on Saturday. The summit was dominated by calls for the UK to pay reparations, plus work on oceans and climate change.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
A resident in the UK has mistakenly thought that lights from a nearby tomato farm were the famous Northern Lights aurora.
New York fans of Timothée Chalamet have hosted a look-alike contest which, to everyone’s delight, was then gate-crashed by the French-American star himself (how did he not win?).
An airport in New Zealand has imposed a maximum hug time of three minutes at the drop off.
Over the ditch in Australia, authorities have rescued a hiker after she got stuck upside down in a rock crevice while trying to retrieve her phone.
And legendary British actor Helen Mirren has once again declared that she wished the late rock-star Kurt Cobain had lived to see GPS.
TODAY IN HISTORY
Khrushchev and JFK. Credits: US Department of State.
On this day in 1962, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev ordered the withdrawal of missiles from Cuba, effectively ending the Cuban Missile Crisis. His move came a day after US Attorney General Robert Kennedy met secretly with Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin and relayed JFK’s plans to remove US Jupiter missiles from Turkey the following year.
The crisis led to the creation of the famous ‘Red Telephone’ hotline between the Kremlin and the White House.
DAILY POLL
US newspapers like the Washington Post and the LA Times have caused a stir for declining to endorse a candidate in this year's elections. What do you think about that?
Last Thursday’s poll: UN chief Antonio Guterres has come under fire for attending last week's BRICS summit in Russia. Do you think the criticism is warranted?
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 👍 Yes, Russia is a pariah and Putin is wanted by the ICC (42%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👎 No, the UN chief needs to deal with everyone (56%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
👎 C: “I won't criticize him for keeping lines of communication open, but I will for what he chooses to say and not say with those communications.”
👍 W.A: “The Western world needs to stop legitimizing anything that Putin the bully does. ”
✍️ L.R: “BRICS+ is the future of the world and the UN knows it, that’s why he’s there.”
👎 S.C: “Guterres visiting Russia demonstrated the ICC’s lack of authority and increases its irrelevance.”
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