🌍 Are EVs dying or soaring?

Your Insider’s briefing:
— Are EVs dying or soaring?
— Why Kiwis are googling ‘funkee monkee’
— Malaysia’s hottest new band

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7%

That’s the share of China’s entire government revenue now coming from China National Tobacco Corporation, the state-owned cigarette monopoly. As China’s single largest source of state revenue, it earns ~$244B a year, and sells nearly half the world’s cigs!

A luxury toaster. An Apple minivan. A $640k Prius. An Accord with a badge.

These are just some of the sick burns after Ferrari launched its first-ever EV... the Luce (Italian for ‘light’), because there's nothing cooler than pulling up to the country club sounding like the opening riff of a mid-tempo Nickelback hit.

After an initial 8% share drop, even the storied firm's ex-chair (Montezemolo) seemed genuinely emotional (more than normal in Italy), quipping "at least China won’t copy it.”

So if even a legendary $65B automaker like Ferrari, co-designing with an Apple-famous visionary like Jony Ive, can't seem to nail EVs right now, then… who can?

With a little help from the new International Energy Agency (IEA) EV Outlook, let's take a quick whip around the EV world in five numbers, starting with...

That's how many EVs the world will buy this year, reaching 28% of all auto sales. A decade ago? Barely 1.5%. This year's EV growth (~3M) now matches total EV sales in 2020!

But zoom in slightly and you’ll see…

That's roughly how many of the world's new EVs are now made in just one country: China.

It's partly the result of smart bets by brilliant founders like Wang Chuanfu (BYD), pioneering top-tier EV batteries. But it's also the result of staggering volumes of unlawful state support — think subsidies, sweetheart finance, and cheap land and utilities.

The result is unbeatable prices — we're talking just $5k for China's Besturn Pony.

The result is also China's EV-makers overshooting production, making 2.5 million more EVs than they can sell at home. So what happens to those 2.5 million extras? China either a) sells them abroad, or b) watches ~50 unprofitable EV-makers go broke.

And guess which option China picked? Longer-term it might end up with both, but for now it just doubled its EV exports in a single year!

So... who's buying all China's EVs?

That's the yoy growth in China’s EV exports (including non-Chinese brands) to Europe in the first two months of this year, pushing China's share of Europe's market to a record 22%. Not impressed? Well five years ago that share was ~3%. A decade ago it was ~zero!

Still not impressed? Well this growth is happening even though Europe has erected a solid 7-35% tariff wall to help its own automakers counter China's subsidies! Or to put it another way, that continued growth points to China’s massive scale and cost advantages.

So maybe Europe should adopt a US-style 100% tariff to effectively block China's EVs? But we've already seen how China retaliates, whether on French cognac or Spanish pork.

And meanwhile, you think EVs are just for rich yuppies...? Well yes okay maybe, but also...

That's the record-breaking annual surge in EV sales we just saw across the developing world (ex China), with a majority of sold models made in China. Specifically, annual EV sales have more than doubled across Southeast Asia, and are up 75% in Latin America.

Why the rush?

It's partly about survival: throw in the largest oil shock in history (Hormuz), minimal tariffs, and price-sensitive drivers, and you can see how switching to a $15k EV might look more like an economic life-raft than a country club flex.

So you've now arguably got China single-handedly re-shaping mobility and locking in longer-term brand loyalty across some of the world's fastest-growing middle classes.

Okay, where’s the US in all this…?

That's how far EV sales just fell in the US the first quarter of 2026, with the total EV market share in the US now seemingly plateauing at around 6%. Why?

It's partly a policy hangover, after the federal $7.5k tax credit expired. It's partly also record-low wartime consumer sentiment, amplified by rates staying higher for longer.

But it's partly also because, protected from China's low-cost competition, most US EVs are still priced and framed as luxury items, leaving many folks preferring trusty gas wheels. The result is that legacy US automakers, terrified of burning cash, and responding to these immediate incentives inside Fortress America, are unwinding their massive EV bets.

So maybe we should wrap via one final number: the most popular vehicle in the US is the SUV / pickup. But guess how many fully electric pickups Ford now keeps on its factory lines? Zero.

There are all sorts of valid (and even unavoidable) reasons for the US to erect its massive tariff wall against China’s low-cost EV flood. But…

There are all sorts of valid (and even unavoidable) reasons for the US to erect its massive tariff wall against China’s low-cost EV flood. But while it was intended as a kind of shield, the lack of competitive pressure might now be acting as a sedative.

We mean a sedative not so much for US pioneers like Tesla (the Model Y is still a top-selling car) but on a) the US consumer, which now sees fewer reasons — and options — to make the shift, and also b) legacy automakers now approaching a world in which, even if they want the shift, will realistically have to buy most tech from China anyway.

Meanwhile, even if Europe raises its own tariff wall higher, we’re already seeing how China’s automakers can skirt it: local assembly, plug-in loop-holes, or shifting to the South.

So if you hear folks talking about the EV revolution stalling, it might be more accurate to note that it’s actually fracturing: in most of the world, it’s accelerating, but now in China-made vehicles, and driven by Global South buyers, fleeing volatile oil markets rattled by war. It’s almost as if the US is not so much stopping that future, as just opting out of it.

And yet… it’s hardly a one-way street in China’s favour, either: there are now dozens of nations quietly building their own tariff walls against China, including not just developed economies, but also emerging players like Brazil (35% tariffs), India (100%), Turkey (40%), Mexico (50%), and Indonesia (demanding 40% local components).

So at some point, China risks running out of pressure valves for its overcapacity, hinting at more domestic challenges ahead. But how many other automakers will still be left to care?

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Here’s what people around the world are googling…

It’s no secret some embassies have cooler perks than others. We’ve toured you through the elegant libraries, renowned chefs, and designer pools over the years, but the Malaysian embassy in Beijing has something even better: an in-house nine-member band!

Aptly named Charisma, the group has now become a fixture at Malaysia’s events in town, rocking everything from jogets (traditional Malay dance) and modern Malay hits, to playful wedding classics like Toleh Menoleh (Glancing around).

Anyway, time to spruce up your next posting application with ‘proficient in saxophone’?

Yesterday’s poll: Do you share Pope Leo's concerns around AI?

🗼 Yes, we're building another Tower of Babel (89%)
👎 No, he's inflating the risks + ignoring the benefits (9%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)

Your two cents: