Today’s briefing:
— A mystery visit to Moscow
— Bad eggs in Belgium
— An odd pet in Tokyo
Your Insider’s briefing:
— A mystery visit to Moscow
— Bad eggs in Belgium
— An odd pet in Tokyo
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Nikita Khrushchev once joked with the CIA’s then director (Allen Dulles) that the two Cold War rivals were probably buying secrets from the same people, so they might as well split the bill.
Seven decades later, the CIA director’s surprise Moscow appearance yesterday seemed too brief for any such quips, but we have some theories on why John Ratcliffe made the trip.
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
19%
That’s the reported spike in Chapter 12 bankruptcies (for family farmers and fisheries) in the 12 months to June 2026, as wartime fertiliser and diesel prices erode thin margins.
Crème de la Kremlin
The C-17 that schlepped the CIA boss to Moscow.
On Tuesday morning, a US military transport appeared on every flight-tracker in the world, entered Russian airspace, and touched down at Vnukovo as Ukraine's drones fell silent. A US motorcade then sliced through the capital, idled downtown, then sped back out to the tarmac. And like that (💨) the C-17 was gone.
It turns out the secret passenger was President Trump's CIA boss, John Ratcliffe.
But if you really want a covert meeting, you send a private Gulfstream under a shell company tail number. Flying a massive US Air Force Globemaster? Direct from Joint Base Andrews? Then roaring a motorcade through Moscow? That’s a message.
But which message? Let's look at the main theories, starting with...
🛑 Deterrence
Maybe Ratcliffe was there to draw a line? There's a bit of evidence, including...
Precedent: the last CIA director to visit Moscow was Biden's Bill Burns, who famously made a 2021 dash to a) flag that the US knew what Putin was planning, and b) warn of all the pain ahead if Putin did invade Ukraine.
The idea was to deter Putin and — nearly five years and a million+ lives later — we know Burns was right, but Putin wasn't listening. Then there's...
Reporting: The Wall Street Journal has been out there citing US intel that Putin might be a) gearing up for a fresh wave of military mobilisation, and/or b) preparing to somehow further test NATO's resolve. There's also...
Personality: unlike some other Trump 2.0 figures, Ratcliffe has zero sympathy for Putin's expansionism. Plus...
Itinerary: along the way, Ratcliffe spent 24 hours next door in NATO ally Latvia, perhaps calming any local "test NATO's resolve" nerves.
So okay, it makes sense that maybe Ratcliffe was in Moscow basically saying "we see your cards, don't play them". But we also have our doubts: all that WSJ reporting has been pretty vague, and any post-election (September) mobilisation Putin has in mind will be too late to make a battlefield difference until well into 2027 (if ever).
Ditto, given Putin's failures in Ukraine, it's hard to see him sustaining another front with the West, though a) he's made dumb decisions before (Ukraine), b) he's received bad advice before (Ukraine), and c) there's still a world in which he escalates further against the West but keeps things within his 'hybrid' guardrails.
But then why send someone as senior as Ratcliffe? Per that 'bad advice' above, the free world has long realised Putin's goons just tell the tsar what he wants to hear, so you need to send someone senior enough to meet Putin and tell the guy direct.
Another plausible theory involves...
🕊️ Peace talks
The last senior Americans in Moscow were Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner in January. After a half-dozen such meetings, they've made zero real progress, and arguably just delayed peace further by amplifying Putin's maximalist demands.
So maybe Trump has now deployed the more hawkish Ratcliffe in hopes this might ratchet up the pressure and shake out more options? But Trump doesn't seem too interested in Putin’s war in general, let alone right now given his focus on...
🇮🇷 Iran
The day before the C-17 landed in Moscow, Secretary Bessent unveiled his "economic D-Day" to further isolate Iran. So maybe Ratcliffe went to Russia — one of Iran's few remaining lifelines — to confront Putin with the sigint receipts and push him to end all support (targeting, diplomatic, sanctions-busting).
Or else? The Bessent plan threatens more crippling US sanctions, plus the CIA has form in helping Ukraine map Russia's vulnerabilities (command, radar, energy etc).
But the reality is Putin just has too much to gain via Iran's regime — each day it survives just further dilutes, distracts, and demoralises US power, freeing Putin's hand in Ukraine.
The other main theory involves...
⛓️ Prisoners
Ratcliffe has form here, too — he helped negotiate the release of dual national Ksenia Karelina last year, and has kept this CIA back-channel open ever since. So sure, a face-to-face can sometimes budge a stalled case, and there are a few Americans still languishing in Russian cells: Khachatoorian (airport gun), Barnes (custody battle), Jezler (CBD oil), Zimmerman (yacht rifle), Hubbard (Ukraine teacher).
But for all the anguish, none have gripped US attention like a Gershkovich, Whelan, or Griner. Plus the itinerary details just feel mis-aligned: C-17 to Moscow? Latvia layover? Ukraine strike pause? This all feels more a message than a trade.
But the truth is, we just don't know which message, let alone whether Moscow is still even listening.
Intrigue’s Take
In this kind of information vacuum, we can only guess at the actual Putin-Ratcliffe agenda, but we’d wager it’s closer to…
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Intrigue’s Take
In this kind of information vacuum, we can only guess at the actual agenda, but we’d wager it’s closer to theory 1 (deterrence, with possible Iran overlap). That theory is incomplete, but it ticks more boxes than any other.
Yet if that’s what’s going on, history might record it as yet another example of what’s arguably becoming the West’s naïve approach to authoritarianism: an assumption that rational deterrence alone can still be enough when you’re dealing with regimes operating on apocalyptic theology (Iran) or historical revisionism (Russia).
The other big story here is more the medium than any message. When conventional diplomacy breaks down, capitals lean more into the spy-to-spy stuff, which makes sense: if diplomats more typically run with negotiation and shame (press releases🔥🔥🔥), surely by this point Putin has revealed himself as a nihilist who’s near impossible to shame.
So maybe that’s where the spooks come in: they don’t need to pretend a wartime relationship is salvageable let alone valuable, nor that anyone is even acting in good faith. Rather, they can theoretically strip back the rhetoric and speak a language Putin clearly understands: capabilities and consequences.
But after years of Biden’s caution and Trump’s indifference (including at least a half-dozen empty ‘two week’ deadlines), Putin probably now sees Western ultimatums — whether delivered by spymaster or not — as mere suggestions.
Sound even smarter:
The Kremlin denies Ratcliffe met Putin, but it also initially denied any knowledge of Ratcliffe’s entire visit. Plus we know Putin was in the Kremlin. 🤷
FBI chief Kash Patel is reportedly planning to visit Russia in October.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇸🇪 SWEDEN — We’d like that mansion.
The Swedish armed forces have reportedly asked their government to expropriate a mansion owned by a Russian oligarch. They argue the Aleshchenko family has Putin links, and the waterfront plot is near a strategic naval base. (Sweden Herald)
Comment: Cue the claims of Russophobia, but it’s the only adjacent plot the military doesn’t control, and the elevated position is perfect for anti-drone systems defending against the only hostile power now routinely droning Europe.
🇨🇳 CHINA — Xi’s travel plans.
Xi Jinping will this week touch down in Kyrgyzstan for the next Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, before paying his first visit to Egypt in a decade. (AA)
Comment: The common link? Trade nodes: Xi still needs Suez to keep China’s exports flowing to Europe; and Kyrgyzstan is the final link in China’s ambitious railway bypassing Russia to shave eight days off Europe times. It’s due for completion by 2028 after years of political, financial, and engineering headaches. While we’re in China, authorities also just jailed famous US-based Chinese satirical artist Gao Zhen, giving him three years for “slandering China’s heroes and martyrs” (aka Mao).
🇳🇬 NIGERIA — Mass mosque kidnapping.
President Tinubu has ordered an immediate military rescue after an armed group attacked a mosque in northern Nigeria during Friday prayers, taking a reported 600 folks. (BBC)
Comment: If the 600 figure holds, it’ll be among Nigeria’s worst mass abduction in modern history, and carried out in broad daylight — embarrassing metrics as the president continues his security ramp-up. The culprits? Eyewitness accounts suggest it was probably Lakurawa, an emerging Islamist group with a record of atrocities against villages deemed insufficiently hard-line.
🇹🇼 TAIWAN — Chip smuggling.
Taiwanese prosecutors have indicted a senior Nvidia manager and two Super Micro Computer execs for smuggling restricted AI servers to China. (Bloomberg $)
Comment: Three things stand-out here: first, the spectre of insider risk, even within a legendary, high-paying firm like Nvidia. Second, the sophistication of this black market (rerouting 74 servers via Japan and Indonesia); and third, Taiwan’s increased willingness to help police US export rules.
🇨🇴 COLOMBIA — Migration crackdown.
Colombia’s newly inaugurated right-populist leader ‘El Tigre’ de la Espriella has announced plans to detain and deport unlawful migrants, warning raids will start as early as this week. (AP)
Comment: He didn’t name-drop a nationality, but it’s clearly aimed at the millions of Venezuelans who’ve sought local refuge amid their home country’s own political and economic collapse last decade. Something like 90% of migrants in Colombia hail from Venezuela. This is partly about delivering on a campaign commitment, and partly a Trump-aligned response to Venezuela’s post-Maduro stabilisation.
🇵🇭 PHILIPPINES — More drones.
The Philippine army has announced it’ll ramp up its drone capabilities as part of its $810M modernisation effort. (Defence Post)
Comment: It’s easy to gloss over endless (if overdue) drone announcements, but it’s worth reflecting on the logic here: unable to match Beijing’s South China Sea presence ship-for-ship, Manila is leaning more into asymmetric systems — a politically, financially, and operationally easier way to monitor and expose expansionism without risking clashes.
🇷🇺 RUSSIA — $10B megaproject ablaze.
A fire at the almost-finished Amur Gas Chemical Complex near Russia’s far-east border with China has left at least six Chinese nationals dead and another 100 workers injured. (Moscow Times)
Comment: For a petrostate facing Western sanctions, a mega-scale polymer plant like Amur (converting cheap gas to higher-value plastic building blocks) is a critical economic pillar. It’s been six years — and $10B — in the making, though initial reports suggest the plant’s primary equipment has escaped damage. Located 6,000km from Ukraine, there’s been no indication of Kyiv’s involvement (and Zelensky would be cautious to avoid giving Xi more reasons to back Putin).
Extra Intrigue
What folks around the world are googling…
🇺🇸 Fans in the US and beyond paid respects to music and philanthropic icon ‘Dolly Parton’ after news broke of her passing, aged 80.
🇵🇭 Netizens in the Philippines googled ‘no classes’ after floods forced 196 schools to pivot to online schooling.
🇧🇪 And locals in Belgium looked up ‘product recall’ after as many as two million eggs got pulled amid a salmonella outbreak hitting 306 diners.
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Friendship of the day
Being a world leader is a lonely, often thankless job. That’s why so many adopt faithful pets to keep them company during those nights burning the midnight oil.
Japan’s Sanae Takaichi, however, has skipped the customary dog, cat, or parrot, instead penning a lengthy tweet about feeling lonely, if not a little sad, after her aides got rid of a recurring cockroach!
Interestingly, she cites Osamu Tezuka’s Phoenix — a foundational postwar manga about the eternal cycle of life, death, and rebirth — for why she couldn’t squash the roach. Quirky, but love the authenticity.
In Japanese politics, even the pets come with philosophical backstories.
Today’s poll
Why do you think Ratcliffe went to Moscow?
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think the US will actually sanction China for its trade with Iran?
💸 Yes, it's the only way (13%)
🚫 No, the risks are too high (85%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
🚫 M.R: “China simply has too many retaliatory levers it would pull.”
💸 M.B: “Trump 2.0 cares little for the possible risks and more for his reputation.”
✍️ S.B: “There are no new financial weapons available, this is just more bluster.”
— PS: quick shout-out to ‘JS’ in the Intrigue group-chat for today’s “Nothing to C-17 here” email subject 😆. Become an Insider and join the chat today!