Today’s briefing:
— A mid-flight presidential U-turn
— Is crypto really decentralised?
— Mbappé’s Maoist time travel
Your Insider’s briefing:
— A mid-flight presidential U-turn
— Is crypto really decentralised?
— Mbappé’s Maoist time travel
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Friends at an embassy once threw a truly wild “wheels-up” party the second their nightmare VIP visitor departed… only for the VIP himself to then join his own “wheels-up” party because of a tarmac delay. Absolute buzz-kill.
I mention that only because I’d love to know what kind of artisanal Polish vodka got opened in Dakar on Friday night when, standing there on the tarmac, perhaps waving a little paper flag while they watched the radar screen, Polish embassy folks instead saw President Nawrocki suddenly pulled a presidential jet U-turn for reasons that’ll go down in history.
Shall we?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
🎧 Prefer this briefing via podcast? Become an Intrigue Insider today!
Number of the day
496 million
That’s how many folks India lifted out of poverty ($4.20 per person per day) between 2011 and 2023, according to the World Bank. A timely reminder that perhaps you don’t need to surrender your political freedoms to secure economic progress?
Pole-dancing
That’s President Nawrocki on the left, and PM Tusk on the right.
We like to think Poland's semi-ceremonial president (Nawrocki) was about to crack open a fresh ginger ale and recline into a big House of Cards rewatch when — somewhere off Spain's south coast en route to Senegal — he suddenly told the pilot to turn the presidential jet around and race home!
Did Nawrocki leave the stove on? Forgot to feed the cat?
It’s worth joining us on what is one heck of a journey, starting way back with his rival and Poland's centrist prime minister...
👔 Donald Tusk
Back when PM Tusk’s centrists last lost power in 2015, his outgoing coalition tried to appoint five top judges just before the buzzer, but two of the spots weren't even vacant.
So the incoming populists declared it all illegal court-packing then parachuted their own loyalists into the constitutional court, even ousting Tusk's three legit new judges!
So right there, you can see ✌️both sides✌️ have dirty hands:
Tusk probably shouldn't have tried to prematurely replace any judges, and
The populists probably shouldn't have ousted Tusk's other legit new judges.
But eventually the populists wrested full control and turned Poland's constitutional court from a check into more of an enabler. And don't take our word for it:
Anyway, the Polish people eventually voted for a 2023 switcheroo, ousting the populists and putting Tusk's centrists back in power. And yet, for their new semi-ceremonial president in 2025, they also elected a familiar populist called...
🥊 Karol Nawrocki
That's the guy who just ordered his presidential jet to pull a U-turn.
And since arriving as president last year, he's refused to swear in most of Tusk's judicial nominees! Sure, he's always got a reason (procedural, partisan, or professional inadequacies), but his dock-blocking has caused two things:
first, a big debate whether Poland's president gets this kind of discretion to just casually pick and choose which parliamentary-appointed judges he'll allow (fwiw, the court and Europe's independent Venice Commission say it's just ribbon-cutting that each president must complete "without delay"), and...
second, by ignoring the court and commission, Nawrocki has now sparked complete gridlock in Poland's constitutional court, which has lost quorum to hear cases, plus even got its budget slashed by a parliament outraged at all this blocking.
So that brings us to 6pm on Friday night, when seven justices entered the court building, took over its official website, and issued a spicy statement suspending the chief justice over his complicity with Nawrocki's dock-blocking!
Under what authority? The group’s leader invoked her seniority (by years of service) and a doctrine of "a state of higher constitutional necessity" (ie, desperate times call for constitutionally-desperate measures).
So that's when Poland’s angry president reversed course and, eight hours later, joined opposition protestors outside the court labelling it all a coup! Meanwhile, Tusk insists he’s simply "restoring the rule of law [...] after years of lawlessness".
And that’s why Poland's constitutional court is right now still split between two rival factions, surrounded by riot police and protestors, while a welcoming committee in Senegal is forlornly rolling up all the Polish flags it probably bought off Temu.
Intrigue’s Take
Beyond all the late-night drama and mid-flight U-turns, this all boils down to…
| Intrigue Insiders | Membership |
Our experienced, unfiltered takes on what's really going on.
| ✓Daily audio edition | ✓Completely ad-free |
| ✓Insider Telegram community | ✓Monthly AMAs |
| Start your free trial → | $14.99/mo · $149/yr 7 days free |
Intrigue’s Take
Beyond all the late-night drama and mid-flight U-turns, this all boils down to two big dynamics.
First, there’s the immediate geopolitical game of chess playing out between Brussels (which has ~backed Tusk) and Moscow (which is amplifying “coup” claims). To be clear, the Kremlin’s propagandists are worried less about the intricacies of Poland’s constitution, and more about undermining the Putin-sceptical Tusk right on Ukraine’s border, while weaponising Poland’s internal democratic friction to sell a broader story that the West is inherently weak, unstable, and hypocritical.
As for the EU? Sure, its endorsement hinges on some legal ground, and Tusk himself served five years as president of the European Council, so there’s a natural philosophical alignment. But rather than sit on its hands or meekly express “concern”🔥🔥, Brussels held its nose at both Tusk’s timing (with the president in the air) and shock use of riot police to nonetheless ~back his side quickly.
In fact, it was about 44 hours (over a weekend!) from the judges making their move to the EU backing Tusk, which is warp-speed in Brussels. And that urgency really points not just to the EU’s decade of fighting Poland’s institutional decay above, nor even the related risks it all poses to the bloc’s single market integrity, but rather an attempt to shut down the Kremlin’s counter-narrative before it gains traction.
The second dynamic here is around institutions: sure, you can argue that if Poland’s 1997 constitutional authors just drafted a tighter text, we wouldn’t now be squabbling over whether the president has explicit veto over judicial oaths. But that’s missing the point: if this crisis didn’t erupt over an oath, it would’ve been something else, because worded however you like, institutions are still ultimately more by-products of something much tougher to draft: a society unified enough to collectively agree on trusting any institutions to help resolve disputes in the first place.
And that’s what this weekend’s drama is really about: after a decade of both sides playing constitutional ju-jitsu and insisting they’re each “restoring” democracy after the other’s sabotage, something finally snapped (whether ouch or back into place).
But… allow us this silver lining: yes, even if we’re witnessing the failure of one institution (or two if you count the president’s unilateral vetoing of legislatively appointed judges), it’s all still happening within the guardrails of another institution even harder to draft: the continued collective agreement that this has to get resolved not via tanks in the streets nor a press blackout nor a breakdown in civil order, but via peaceful protest and dialogue. And all while folks in Poland have kept growing their economy ten-fold since the fall of the Iron Curtain!
So perhaps that’s where we land: yes, there’s embarrassment that Poland’s political elites let it all come to this, but we also see here a testament to Poland’s broader society that knows first-hand what’s waiting when you end up down the darker path.
Sound even smarter:
Four former chief justices of Poland’s constitutional court have come out in support of the judges who made Friday night’s big move.
France’s right-populist Marine Le Pen has come out the other way (sparking a rebuke from Poland’s foreign minister).
Keep an eye also on the tensions brewing between Poland’s Tusk government, and the central bank governor aligned with the populists.
Today’s briefing is sponsored by:
Fresh-Roasted Coffee, Without Leaving the House
A third-generation LA roaster ships 50+ coffees — single origins, flavored favorites, decafs, even teas — days after roasting. Mix and match Keurig®-compatible boxes for tiered savings up to 34% off. First order? Take an extra 15% off, automatically.
[🈂️ Prefer ad-free reading? Sign-up to Intrigue Insiders today!]
Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Final stretch.
Take this with the requisite quarry of salt, but final national polling averages now put the Democrats ahead by somewhere between seven and nine points, with modellers forecasting they’ll flip the House though the Senate will see tighter margins. (BBC)
Comment: Insiders got our special US midterms edition over the weekend, exploring what this all means for the US and its place in the world. Not already an Insider? Join us today!
🇪🇭 WESTERN SAHARA — UN gridlock ends peacekeeping.
The UN’s 35-year peacekeeping mission in the disputed Western Sahara will now wind down after a UN Security Council showdown saw competing US and Russian resolutions collapse over the weekend: Russia vetoed the US text leaning more into Morocco’s claims over the territory, but then exasperated Council members mostly abstained on Russia’s proposal to just roll the mission over for another 12-months. (MEE)
Comment: While grim news for those Western Saharans preferring independence, not to mention a broader world depending on a functioning Security Council, the end of the UN mission is good news for both Morocco (one less obstacle to annexation) and the US (which has backed Morocco’s claims since 2020 as part of the Abraham Accords to normalise ties with Israel).
🇮🇱 ISRAEL — Stalemate?
Israel’s mostly-ceremonial president (Herzog) is urging parties to enter coalition talks with “an open heart” now that neither PM Netanyahu nor Eisenkot’s opposition have a majority. Meanwhile, Israeli electoral officials have dismissed Bibi’s rhetoric that Arab-Israelis stole the election. (NBC)
Comment: While Netanyahu won the most seats, it’s up to Herzog to determine who is best placed to cobble together a coalition, with initial consultations starting this Wednesday. And Eisenkot is now flagging he’d be willing to partner with Israel’s Arab-majority parties to oust Bibi if they accept Eisenkot’s conditions (like acknowledging Israel as a Jewish state, and Hamas as a terrorist group). In parallel, outlets keep reporting that Netanyahu wants President Trump to resume hits on Iran ASAP.
🇰🇵 NORTH KOREA — Crypto heist.
The FBI is blaming North Korea for history’s biggest crypto hack, seizing $6.3B from the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance. (AP)
Comment: The hermit state’s hackers have form here, so there’s nothing really surprising beyond the sheer scale. Perhaps more intriguing is the way some stablecoin issuers immediately froze crypto assets out of precaution, simultaneously leaving us to wonder about the whole “decentralised” raison d’etre for crypto. Turns out a crypto-bro can just switch your coin off? Binance is pledging to cover all client losses.
🇧🇬 BULGARIA — Steady as she goes.
The ceremonial presidency’s more Moscow-sympathetic incumbent (Yotova) has won Bulgaria’s runoff with ~57% of the vote, comfortably beating her more pro-Western challenger. (Bloomberg $)
Comment: A mostly symbolic role, though we’ve seen in the Poland story above how quickly a bit of re-interpretation can convert routine oath-swearing into a constitutional crisis. For Bulgaria, though, it’s more wind in the sails for the like-minded PM Radev, still officially toeing the line as an EU and NATO member while safeguarding friendlier Moscow ties (partly anchored in history).
🇧🇩 BANGLADESH — Garment protests.
Garment factories across the country reopened on Monday after widespread worker protests for higher wages. Authorities are bracing for further unrest in the nation responsible for ~7.5% of the world’s apparel exports. (Reuters)
Comment: Global impact aside, the Bangladeshi garment sector also accounts for ~10% of GDP and ~80% of national export earnings, so it’s a rumble posing big implications.
🇷🇺 RUSSIA — Grinding gear change.
The respected ISW think tank is reporting that Russia just lost net-territory in Ukraine for the second consecutive month, even as Ukraine claims it inflicted a record 54,000 Russian casualties the same month. (Al Jazeera)
Comment: If losing both land and troops seems an unsustainable trajectory, that’s because it is, but Putin continues to bank on the West ditching Ukraine’s self-defence first.
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly round-up of the world’s lighter news
Australia has (again) found crocodiles near its 2032 Olympic rowing course.
While we’re Down Under, an inmate has lost his appeal for Vegemite in prison.
An electoral official in Serbia has apparently eaten two ballot papers.
A car-hire has apologised for charging a Toronto man for driving 30,000km (three-quarters around Earth) in seven days.
And Hello Kitty has cut ties with a Japanese spy show after it sparked outrage in China.
Now while we’re on the topic of cross-border pop-culture apologies…
From our sponsors
GURU Conference starts Nov 12: two days of email tactics, 100% free and virtual, powered by Constant Contact. Save your free spot.
Comedy of the day
That’s soccer star Mbappé ending up back in Mao-era China. A screenshot from the series.
Ever wondered what happens when modern celebrity meets techno-authoritarianism meets high-grade dissident satire? Sweet Intriguer, we present to you the viral masterpiece… Mbappé Travels Back in Time to the Cultural Revolution!
These hilarious animations riff off the fallout we covered after French soccer star Mbappé issued his apology for referring to Mao Zedong as a dictator.
In the absurdist videos, the striker inexplicably wakes up back in Mao’s brutal Cultural Revolution, only to be interrogated by zealous Red Guards. And sure enough, everything Mbappé says just digs him further into ideological trouble:
“I play on the left wing.” 👈 Good, ideologically sound!
“… but sometimes on the right.” 👈 Oscillating stance!
“…and sometimes centre-forward.” 👈 Smuggling a centrist third-way!
“Look, I just want to score.” 👈 Egoism!
“Okay, I’ll pass to my team-mates.” 👈 Illegal cliques!
“Fine, I won’t play at all!” 👈 Sabotage!
It all pushes the soccer maestro back to a locked cell where he reflects on the absolute logic trap of his own real-world PR crisis with China:
“Should I deny wrongdoing?” 👈Unrepentant!
“Okay, so maybe I should apologise?” 👈A-hah, you admit your guilt!
As for the genius behind this series? It’s an anonymous YouTube account called “@SD8964”: ‘SD’ stands for ‘shādiāo’ (沙雕), which is literally “sand sculpture” but also common internet slang for “absurd trolling”. As for ‘8964’? It’s a heavily-censored reference to June 4, 1989, aka the Tiananmen Square massacre.
All that, plus the flawless Mandarin, leaves us guessing it’s an overseas dissident enjoying a bit of fun not just at the expense of the Communists, but the many Little Pinks (ultra-nationalist netizens) defending the Party against any slight.
Today’s poll
Who do you think is *most* at fault for Poland's crisis?
Last week’s poll: Do you think the US will ever extradite Flávio Bolsonaro back to Brazil?
🚓 Yep, a future White House will oust him (43%)
🚧 Nope, simpler to just move on (55%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (2%)
Your two cents:
🚓 O.G.C: “Flávio is now a bargaining chip for future administrations looking to repair relationships with Brazil.”
🚧 Y: “Out of site, out of mind. The world is full of ex-leaders sunning themselves in another country.”
🚧 S.F: “The extradition treaty explicitly excludes political crimes, which Bolsonaro would have a decent chance of demonstrating.”
✍️ SZKB: “He’ll return by himself then act as a martyr.”
PS — shout-out to ‘JS’ in the group-chat for today’s Poles apart heading 😄. Become an Insider and join the banter today!
