🌍 4 tales to watch this week

$3T

That’s the new market cap reached by Alphabet, Google’s parent company, with the tech giant now joining the exclusive $3T club alongside Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple.

Northern hemisphere Intriguers will feel that Fall mood in the air: maybe it’s the waft of Pumpkin Spice Latte. Folks down south of the equator will be feeling those Spring vibes: it’s probably all that pomegranate & rose espresso tonic you’re smashing.

Whatever your brew, there’s now an end-of-year sprint on, and this is what we’re tracking: 

We’re almost certain to see this year’s first US rate cut tomorrow (Wednesday) in welcome news for both the White House and investors, even if it’s already priced in.

But markets will also be watching for any hints of stagflation, dissent around the data, and global spillover (the US is already an outlier, resuming cuts just as peers hit pause).

Meanwhile, any signalling of bigger-than-expected cuts could rattle markets, with the implicit message that the Fed now feels late (or… markets could just say yay and let rip).

And of course, everyone wants word on what’s up with board member Lisa Cook — a court has temporarily blocked President Trump’s attempt to fire her, and there’s reporting that the underlying fraud allegations were off. It’ll all shape when Trump can get a Fed majority, presumably more likely to let the economy run hot.

That’s the name of the joint Russia-Belarus military exercises (‘zapa’ means ‘west’) held every four years, with the latest iteration actually wrapping in Belarus today (Tuesday). You’ll recall the last time Putin held these drills, he used them as cover for his mass 2021 build-up near Ukraine before then invading (after repeatedly claiming he wouldn’t).

Three things we’ve noticed this time around?

First, the messaging, with the Russians and Belarusians claiming these are scaled-down drills to reduce tensions with NATO next door. That’s likely just spin for the fact that…

Second, Putin simply doesn’t have the manpower, with maybe a few thousand Russian troops turning up this year, down from as many as 200,000 in 2021.

And third, the spectators, which included the usual mix of Moscow-friendly dictatorships, but with a very notable addition: two US officials were there, too. It’s part of the curious US-Belarus dance now underway, with the US trading sanctions relief for political prisoner releases, though DC’s end-game is unclear — there’s talk of it somehow helping peace talks, though maybe it’s also to cleave Minsk away from Moscow?

That’s the UN nuclear watchdog’s big annual meeting in Vienna this week, with all the usual players gearing up for a familiar fight: 

Grossi, of course, also tries to thread this with one eye on the possibility he could end up the next secretary-general of the UN (the selection process is due to start by December).

Anyway, even if the above feels like Groundhog Day, the fact everyone is sending their top envoys is a reminder our embattled multilateral system is still the only game in town.

With each US stay-of-execution for TikTok, the legal basis for its continued US presence has just gotten weaker and weaker (the legislation never intended so many extensions).

But word is there might now be a deal, with Presidents Trump and Xi due to give it their blessing on Friday. The big question is whether it strikes a meaningful balance between preserving the platform’s massive social and economic value for the US, against the real risks that come with such a powerful tool answering (via a China-based parent) to Beijing.

There’s not enough public info yet, though rumours are this deal does involve US owners taking control, and TikTok’s coveted algorithm getting transferred to new US owners via a licensing agreement. If this is the case, it might explain why Beijing still sounds a little salty about the whole thing, warning the US against further “suppression” of Chinese firms.

What big themes might we draw from all this? Here are two.

First, whether it’s about the TikTok algorithm, central bank independence, IAEA credibility, or Russia’s latest war games, they all point to a yawning trust gap in our new world.

But second, whether it’s the Fed, the IAEA, or any other body creaking under pressure, they’re arguably now more central than ever, with capitals still hanging on every word.

Two other events we’re tracking:

Today’s newsletter is sponsored by The European Correspondent

Stay informed on Europe – in 11 minutes

Essential stories shaping Europe, delivered to your inbox daily. The European Correspondent delivers independent news from Lisbon to Kyiv, Tbilisi to Reykjavik, told by local journalists who live the stories they cover. We cut through the noise with sharp analysis, compelling data stories, and investigative reports. In just 11 minutes a day, you’ll understand the politics, culture, and social shifts driving Europe forward. No spin. No paywall. Just honest, nonprofit journalism, built for everyone across the globe.

Subscribe for free!

Here’s what people around the world are googling: 

Ever felt like the festive season keeps starting earlier and earlier? Starbucks dropping its gingerbread latte in September? Walmart rocking Jingle Bells in October?

Well Venezuela is dialling that up to 11 again this year, with local despot Nicolás Maduro announcing his country will again celebrate Christmas from 1 October.

We love Christmas, but you should know Maduro’s move is less about Christmas cheer, and more an attempt to win support among the faithful, and boost spending amid the malaise.

Yesterday’s poll: What do you think this US deployment to the Caribbean is most about?

🏴‍☠️ Hitting the cartels (10%)
🇻🇪 Pressuring Maduro (50%)
🇬🇾 Backing Guyana (10%)
🌐 A new world order (20%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (8%)

Your two cents: