Today’s briefing:
— 20,000 troops vs palace bugs
— Bank run breaks a president
— How to score a Hyundai in Mexico
Your Insider’s briefing:
— 20,000 troops vs palace bugs
— Bank run breaks a president
— How to score a Hyundai in Mexico
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. It’s November 6th, which brings to mind a joke doing the rounds among Ukrainians: it’s the day they celebrate the second anniversary of Trump’s 24 hours successfully ending Putin’s three-day war, now nearing the end of its fifth year.
Compare that to the US president’s latest update after hosting Putin’s envoy (Dmitriev): "There’s going to be an agreement. It’s going to be a big agreement, and it’s going to involve more than Ukraine… I could even say it might involve all of Europe. It’s going to be a big, beautiful agreement and everyone’s going to be thrilled."
It’s another hint Something™ is brewing ahead of Russia-Ukraine talks resuming in Abu Dhabi next week, but first, let’s look at why Indonesia’s embattled president just deployed 20,000 troops to his own capital!
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
21+
That’s how many flights across Europe received fake bomb threats on Thursday, the third day of hoaxes this week, seemingly aimed at disrupting Europe and stretching its resources as intel agencies scramble to identify the source.
Stop bugging me
Note the double ‘n’.
How do you go from 81% approval, a commanding legislative majority, and a grand political bargain with powerful elites, to deploying 20,000 troops to protect yourself?
Let's ask Indonesia's strongman president, Prabowo Subianto, who finally got the top job in 2024 after marrying into a dominant First Family (the Suhartos), rising to special forces chief, then mounting four failed electoral bids for the palace.
After teaming up with the son of his wildly popular predecessor / rival (Jokowi), he finally rode to power promising 8% growth, free school lunches for ~80 million kids, and a smooth continuation of Indonesia's infrastructure boom.
Then... what went wrong?
Well some of the earliest wobbles were in Prabowo's own signature school lunches, with corrupt bureaucrats and contractors pilfering millions, while rushed execution left ~50,000 kids ill from food poisoning. Meanwhile, massive bulk state buying for thousands of new school kitchens just fuelled inflation for everyone else!
And then? (“no and then!”)
All that spending (lunches, defence, a new capital) clashed with the market-darling finance minister (Indrawati) who Prabowo inherited to keep investors happy. But rather than heed her advice, he sacked her! Her replacement? Barely lasted a year.
So with markets already rattled, the Iran war then spiked Indonesia's energy costs, the rupiah plunged to new lows, and the central bank governor then abruptly quit ahead of schedule this July, just as index giant MSCI threatened a humiliating downgrade over Indonesia's opaque and insider-dominated equities market.
Then as if that economic turmoil weren't enough, brutal bushfires (palm oil, timber, farmers) irked neighbouring Singapore and Malaysia with toxic smoke.
And yet things somehow got even worse: an October court ruling threatened Prabowo's entire grand bargain by fanning doubts whether his own veep (son of the ex-president) held a valid high-school diploma, a constitutional requirement to run.
So with approvals plunging 30 points and the courts adding a dash of political turmoil, Prabowo pulled what he thought was a masterstroke: he kick-promoted Indonesia's powerful police-chief (Listyo) into the palace as his own chief of staff.
Why a masterstroke?
It’s an open secret the last president (Jokowi) wields influence in the shadows to protect his allies and shield his interests, via loyalists like Listyo the police chief. So by ✌️promoting✌️ the police-chief to the palace, Prabowo was pulling a classic ‘keep your rivals close’ move to strip him of police command while reining him in.
But it soon backfired because, within weeks, investigators say they caught Listyo and top cops running unauthorised surveillance against the president and his allies!
And it’s all now spawning a web of theories:
Was Jokowi just using this top cop to keep tabs on his erratic successor?
Was Listyo just gathering leverage to protect himself from a looming purge?
Or was paranoid Prabowo himself just jumping at (or inventing) shadows here?
Any option now feels plausible, and yet still insufficient to explain the sky-high stakes as two powerful dynasties maybe face off, with the state caught in the middle.
Which brings us right back to the beginning: Listyo is now potentially facing treason-level charges, and 20,000 troops are now deployed across Jakarta, not to fend off some foreign foe, but because this strongman president has fears closer to home.
Intrigue’s Take
We all now seem to be learning that…
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Intrigue’s Take
We all now seem to be learning that populism can be pretty easy on the campaign trail, but messy once it collides with the reality of governing.
First, the seeds of Prabowo’s own instability were right there on inauguration day when he announced a record-shattering roster of more than 100 ministers, deputy ministers, and agency heads.
This isn’t because Indonesia uniquely needs that phalanx of officialdom, but because beneath the tough-talk always lay a fragile coalition held together by institutional patronage. And as that bargain now collides with fiscal reality, the bought loyalty might be unravelling in real time.
Second, populists love to frame markets as faceless elites roadblocking their bulldozer of progress, but it’s more often just logic: whether you’re Liz Truss or Prabowo Subianto or Javier Milei, the test isn’t whether you’re populist or pragmatic, left or right, so much as just whether your actions and instincts give lenders the confidence to lend, and investors the confidence to invest.
Truss failed that test, Milei seems closer to passing, and Prabowo is now running out of time. Because you can play the strongman and steamroll or co-opt critics back home, but you can’t force global markets (aka random pensioners and savers and investors) to bankroll an unviable economy. That’s on you.
But then third, strongmen often believe that when political bargains crack and global markets rebel, sheer force can plug the leaks. But using appointments to keep frenemies on a leash, or rolling 20,000 troops into the capital to play palace guard? C’mon. When you (and your rivals) are resorting to intel schemes and dynastic manoeuvres, it hints at an administration spinning apart from the inside.
Sound even smarter:
The US previously banned Prabowo from entering the United States over human rights allegations from his special forces days.
Officials insist the 20,000 troops are just on a routine rotation through the capital.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇵🇾 PARAGUAY — President steps down.
President Peña has now tendered his resignation following the catastrophic collapse of a fast-growing digital bank he had recently part-owned, leaving half the country’s adults without access to their accounts. He’s now also facing a criminal investigation, pending his formal impeachment as early as today (Friday). (AP)
Comments: The bank (Ueno) had become a backbone of Paraguay’s digital payments infrastructure, and was holding ~10% of the state pension fund’s entire portfolio, hence the broader economic and political ripples. But those ripples could go wider: Peña has been one of Trump 2.0’s most vocal backers in the region, while also holding the line against powerful domestic business interests pushing him to abandon Taiwan.
🇺🇳 UNITED NATIONS — Straw poll shuffle.
The latest secret straw poll within the all-powerful Security Council suggests Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan is pulling away from the pack to be the UN’s next secretary-general, scoring 12 out of 15 votes. But she’s still facing three mystery “discourage” votes, raising the prospect at least one of the Council’s permanent five (probably the US and/or Russia) might veto her. (PassBlue)
Comment: Interestingly, the UAE’s Hail Mary candidate (Nusseibeh) placed a distant fourth, suggesting there’s little appetite at this stage to abandon tradition, which would ordinarily see a LatAm or Caribbean candidate now prevail. Nusseibeh is also facing the pushback we flagged from the beginning (her Gulf petrostate’s reported support for RSF war criminals in Sudan).
🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA — Naval deployment.
Shrugging off domestic fears of getting pulled into the Iran war, Seoul now plans to expand its naval operations in the Middle East, projecting further down near Somalia while adding extra military assets to protect shipping routes. (Korea Times)
Comment: This is less a belated favour to the White House, and more a recognition that the Iran war has drained Western naval capacities, with Somali pirates filling the void. For a country importing nearly all its oil, it can no longer afford to delegate the security of its most vital sea lanes.
🇫🇷 FRANCE — Strike.
Another 600,000-to-1.5 million (depending who you believe) demonstrators have taken to the streets across France in a nationwide day of action, demanding wage increases and emergency relief against a grinding cost-of-living crisis. Spearheaded by major trade unions, the strike closed schools, disrupted transport, and even shuttered landmarks like the Eiffel Tower. (France24)
Comment: Just six months out from high-stakes elections that the populist-right’s Marine Le Pen is forecast to win, this suggests the initial student-led unrest has snowballed into a broader labour movement. It all leaves Paris in an impossible squeeze: cave to demands and worsen France’s fiscal crisis, or hold the line and watch the demonstrations grow. The populists win either way, though it’s unclear how they’d do any better.
🇷🇺 RUSSIA — Missile launchers for Iran.
Leaked defence industry documents reveal a planned deal for Moscow to supply Iran with 90 helicopter-mounted launchers for its advanced LMUR missiles, the same weapons Russian forces have used extensively across Ukraine. (Guardian)
Comment: It’s another layer to the growing stack of evidence that Putin is backing Iran against the US, something the White House still prefers to deny or ignore.
🇲🇽 MEXICO — Judge drama.
Federal US prosecutors have charged a Mexican judge with taking a $2M bribe to grant bail for a key lieutenant of Canada’s alleged Olympian-turned-narco, Ryan Wedding. Local authorities took Judge Luis Benítez into custody in Colombia, with extradition procedures now underway. (CBS)
Comment: The arrest is a double-whammy for Mexico’s President Sheinbaum, who a) recently pushed through controversial reforms making judges publicly elected (in hopes of curbing corruption), and b) will now be embarrassed by this latest unilateral US move.
🇧🇮 BURUNDI — Pay to play.
President Ndayishimiye has set a May 2027 date for the country’s next election, but the beleaguered opposition isn’t celebrating yet. New-ish electoral rules mean any candidates must now fork over a cool $50k in fees. (Channel Africa)
Comment: In a nation where GDP per capita sits around $250, a $50k entry fee is less an administrative procedure and more a financial moat: ie, a classic autocrat move to price out a cash-strapped opposition.
Extra Intrigue
Some weekend recommendations from Team Intrigue
Read: What happened to the lab-meat hype?
Listen: Did you know Japan’s would-be putschists planned to assassinate Charlie Chaplin during his 1932 visit in hopes of triggering a war with the US?
Ponder: Check out this New Yorker profile on Gadi Eisenkot, the ex-military chief now tipped to lead Israel’s next government, having now secured Arab party support.
Peruse: Created by friend of Intrigue Ryan Fedasiuk, click through this elegant database of embassies in DC, each with its distinctive architectural style.
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Perk of the day
Credits: Banorte.
If anyone has any contacts at Banorte give us a call, because we’d like to exchange notes on referral programs.
The Mexican bank is now offering new and existing customers the chance to win a Hyundai Creta every day, with clients scoring one raffle entry per $540 deposit into eligible accounts. It comes amid increasing competition from digital banks.
It’s not the first time banks have tried to attract deposits via some quirky prizes: Kansas-based EquityBank went with the ‘smart toaster’, while customers at Michigan’s North Country could choose between interest payments or a shotgun!
Anyway, become an Insider and we’ll give you an Intrigue-blue Hyundai iMax N Drift Bus — perfect for donuts in the parking lot and school drop-off (we won’t, but humour us).
Friday quiz
Big week, so here’s a quiz about kittens.
